BarleyNY

Good point. I wondered if drafting Elam was a sign of changes in scheme or just a matter of taking the best CB on the board and hoping that he can learn to play zone. I suspected it was the latter since after drafting him they talked about being able to flip man coverage responsibilities between him and Tre White in some of their schemes.

IMO top to bottom the AFCN is the most difficult division in the NFL this season, though the AFCE is a close second. They don’t seem to have a weak team. Even without a quality QB Pittsburgh seems to still be able to go 9-8 at worst. The Browns are stacked. Everything there depends on how Watson plays and gels with Stefanski's play calling. Similarly the Ravens are Lamar dependent, but look like they are fielding quite a good roster. And there’s no need to pump up the Bengals after the last few seasons.

To answer your question at the end about how the team is doing at CB2, I’d say it’s serviceable. Let’s face it. If the Bills we’re happy with the guy who is starting now, then they wouldn’t have drafted Elam. But I also don’t look at CB2 in a vacuum. By itself it’s not so big a deal. But add in what we are looking at with our current MLB situation and the lack of pass rush I expect until Von Miller gets back to full health (if that ever happens) and I’m concerned with our defense. That doesn’t meant that I don’t really like much of the DL, Milano, Tre, Johnson and our safeties. I do. But I have concerns as to what’ll happen with little pass rush juice while Johnson and Klein (or whomever) are trying to cover.

The Bills put themselves into a position where they had to take a CB. No obvious answer at CB2 and Tre was injured. Then KC jumped us for McDuffie - and we took our shot on Elam.

And that’s the rub. The Bills have tried to improve on Jackson, but it hasn’t worked out yet.

Dawkins has been the best OL on the Bills for years. He’s been above average, which is sadly the best we’ve had. Morse has been a very average C, but he brought stability to the interior OL when we desperately needed it. That’s why the Bills overpaid for him at the time and why that was okay. He is not overpaid at today’s MV, but he has seen his best days. I’m not advocating for moving on from him now. We have no better option.

Nah. If Bates was up to Morse’s level of play at this time, they’d move on from Morse. Matching the Bears offer for Bates was a mistake. He isn’t worth the contract he’s on. As for Morse, he has slipped a bit and he is already 31. I think he sticks this year but that’s probably it. Remember, it is always better to move on from a a player a year early than a year late. But his contract was front loaded so he’s not getting all that much cash. Still, they need to make cap room and moving on from him would certainly help.

I have no issue with the Bills taking a flyer on a young, raw, physically gifted player. But that’s not the same thing as spending draft capital and cap dollars appropriately and wisely on the OL. The Bills have fallen short in those regards over the last 7 years.

Just a few comments: - You say that Van Demark is “high upside”. Wow. Please defend that. He was an UDFA last season and couldn’t get on the active roster for the Colts. Just because he looked good against scrubs in preseason this year doesn’t mean he can even play in this league, much less play at a high level. - Good OTs hit their peak well before 30. You can’t be serious. - Lotta teams spend first (or second) round picks on OTs. There just aren't that many people in the world that big who can move as required for the position. The scarcity is a big reason the Texans just dropped a ton of cash on an average RT. Because you know, if you put a poor one out there they could lose you a season of your HOF QB on any given play. And who needs that?

He could be an outstanding RT. Word is that the Browns are very happy with him overall, but he does have some mental lapses - false starts, occasional missed assignment. But he is so big (but not fat) and fast that when he’s gotten beat, he usually has been able to recover and still win the rep.

I believe that the roster bonus for this year has been paid already, but the one next season kills any thought of the deal. No way would I take on that guarantee. Even if SF ate that too, I'm still not interested. Because if Kyle Shanahan can't make anything out of him, then I have zero faith that Dorsey can. Also Sam Darnold just beat him out for QB2. SMH. So even though Barkley is hot garbage and Kyle Allen is just a tad better than hot garbage, I'll pass.

Condolences to you and everyone who loved Shawn. RIP, Shawn.

As of today I don’t think there’s a place for Simmons on the Bills either. But it was a very nice, opportunistic move the the Giants.

It is robbery. Arizona stupidly tried to make him a MLB. Let him play safety/slot/overhang and see what he does.

Agreed, MGK. I think the play at LT is to draft one next season to develop behind Dawkins. That doesn’t have to be in the first. Cash outlays to Dawkins this year and next are definitely great bargains for even average LT play - and he’s been a tick above that to date. But I think the Bills prioritized a lot of other positions over RT, which is why they need their third rounder to work out there. I like that they took an OL in the second this year. I hope that shift to prioritizing the offense continues. I’ll add that their draft and FA missed on the DL and OL have really hurt. They tried to fix the DL problem by dropping $30M a year on Von Miller, but then the knee happened.

$15.4M is still a lot of dead cap. Currently the Bills only have $5.2M total dead cap for this season, although that will probably grow a little after the cut down. $15.4M should be around 6.5% of the 2024 cap allowance, which should be around $240M. To put that into perspective, only 4 Bills players account for more than 5% of this year’s cap. That is why I think they’ll designate him a 6/1 cut.

I know the book isn’t written on either one, but imagine the right side with Torrence and Jones together.

https://twitter.com/jackduffin/status/1684187145169149956?s=46&t=YCtwdE4Hu9f12jkTstxw9A Average offensive tackle compensation notice for current market value comparison purposes. Looks like it’s about $19M/yr for an average player at that spot. Tytus Howard, RT, of the Texans just got a three year extension worth $56M. $36.5M guaranteed. This goes a long way in explaining why the Bills have stuck with Dawkins and Brown. What it doesn’t explain is why they haven’t tried harder in the draft to improve there or get better prospects in the pipeline.

Yup. I think if Bates was playing better Morse would be out the door next week. Morse’s play has been steadily declining over the last few years, but I don’t see Bates really stepping up either. The Bills brass probably won’t want to change up Allen’s center just prior to such an important season. I think he stays one more season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t.

Totally agree. They have made all of the easy moves available to create cap space. Now it gets dicier.

This is not even remotely correct. Miller is not his last year. Due to his contract guarantees and structure the Bills have to keep him through next year, 2024. Most of his salary that season is guaranteed anyway. They can release him before the 2025 season, but he will have a large dead cap hit of $15.4M. I expect that they will designate him a 6/1 cut to kick some of that into 2025. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/

That would actually lose us cap space due to guaranteed money (Ford, $1.5M), dead cap (Basham $362k) and the replacement salaries of players taking their roster spots. That won’t work. It is already maxed out in that way.

Yes. It’s a good topic for discussion. I’ve been kicking the can down the road on It because there are not a lot of great options. Tre makes the most sense to me since he is signed through 2025, but the Bills need more than the $5M or so they can get from his contract. All of the other players you mention are the logical places to look, but all are near the end of their deals. Johnson, Dawkins and Morse are signed through 2024 and Jones only for this season. Restructures with void years (Dawkins already has them) could be used or legitimate extensions would have to be done. I don’t know which contracts could be extended by the Bills without the player approval. No way to know without having access to it. If they have a say, then I’d think they’d want extensions rather than a restructure. Which of those players would you extend? Morse is at the end. No way. Extending Dawkins scares me so I’d pass on that too unless I could get away with guaranteeing next year in exchange for cap relief. I doubt that would fly tho. I guess Johnson is a decent possibility. He just turned 27 so he should have some years left. Jones is tough due to his age. We’d have to guarantee money next season. I wouldn’t go further than that. That’s all I got unless they think they can get away with Bates at C and cut Morse. I would not do that at this point however.

Thanks for starting this topic and taking most of the heat. I listened to Mariano’s podcast yesterday. I also listened to PFF’s brief review of the game and Sam Monson had a similar take on Allen. He said that it looked like he “was seeing ghosts” and bailing on the pocket even when there was no pressure. Both opinions support what I saw in that game and last season. I think this issue has more than one cause. The first is protection problems. The problems at tackle are the most prominent, but there have been issues inside too. The second is looking for the home run ball too often. That’s on multiple people. There are plays where Allen has held the ball - and often scrambled - while looking for a big play and ignoring receivers open short. But there have been plays where there are no short options - either because receivers didn’t adjust their routes or because Dorsey’s play didn’t include that option. What I’m seeing with Allen in the pocket now is him bailing early - often into pressure - even when there is a good pocket. When he doesn’t bail to the side I’m also seeing him drop back further rather than step up into the pocket. That creates issues with the OTs who will sometimes carry a rusher going outside deep. That works if the QB is supposed to be at 7 yards and they carry him 10, but not if the QB has slid back to 10. To Allen’s credit, he’s athletic and skilled enough to still make positive plays when some of that happens. But he needs to make life easier on himself and his body. That’s not all on him. Dorsey, Beane and the OL have to give him confidence that they’ll protect him. That includes OL performance, play design and execution by the other 10 players on the field. It might seem like I focused on Allen as the issue here because that’s where most of the problems manifest, but I don’t think that is the case. This is something that a lot of people need to fix.

You’re kidding, right? Not only was Tasker a Bill, he still works for the Bills. It’s how he has to do his job if he wants to keep his gig as a preseason color commentator for them - well as any other perks or jobs that come his way because of his relationship with the Bills (like local commercials for auto dealers, etc.)