BarleyNY

It was a market value extension at the time it was done. It was done at a lucky time as NFL revenue and the cap have exploded.

You’re too nice

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Since it was not a football related injury the Bills put him on the NFI list. That means they are not obligated to pay him his salary or any per game roster bonuses. That’s $3M they don’t have to pay him. Also the Bills can choose to pay him his full or a lesser amount. I have no information about what they chose, but I bet they aren’t paying him much, if anything. Thus the lawsuit to recoup his lost earning. If some idiot on a jet ski hit you, tore up your knee and cost you at least $3M you’d only sue if they were drunk or high? LOL You’d sue.

And I think it’s fair for fans to be concerned by how poorly Bernard performed last season. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve.

Couple points: - There’s a big difference between acknowledging that someone is an expert and asserting their infallibility. - On the tax example my MIL had hers done by the same professional for decades. She passed away last year and my wife is handling her estate. She found numerous mistakes in the taxes sent to her by the same professional tax accountant. Some took several corrections before they were fully rectified. Thus the danger of appealing to authority. - Similarly a lot of fans thought that despite his extensive experience Rex Ryan was going to be a disaster here. And they sure weren’t wrong. I hear the same argument of “he’s the pro.” - Just because a fan may not be able to do the job of a GM doesn’t mean that they can’t point out where they think he went wrong. I’m not a professional chef, but I can tell you that a meal is terrible when I have a really bad one - and sometimes even when I’m watching one be made. - Let’s not confuse name calling and belittling someone with fans voicing legitimate concerns and criticisms. - I don’t see the same push back when Bills fans criticize other teams players, coaches and GMs. Why the double standard? There’s nothing wrong with a fan stating that they think we will have a problem at MLB because our starting MLB performed poorly last year and hasn’t been on the field in the preseason. That’s legitimate. That doesn’t mean that they’re rooting for the player to fail or rooting against the Bills.

Yup. "Appeal to Authority" is a logical fallacy. It is when someone asserts that something is true because someone deemed an expert says that it is. I have heard a version of this for just about every coach and GM that the Bills have had. I'm not sure how anyone can make such a claim after seeing all of the mistakes they've all made. That includes the current group.

The only thing I disagree with is that I don’t see a retooling until after the 2024 season. The Bills are set to move on from several key players at that point. Of course there are some they could choose to move on from earlier and some they could extend, but that off-season seems like the logical place to make the most moves. Contracts set to expire after the 2024 season include Dawkins, Morse, Brown, Gilliam, Hines, Harty, Poyer, Neal and Johnson. It’s also the point I expect them to get out of the contracts of Von Miller (definitely) and Diggs (possibly as 2025 would be his age 32 season). It also the logical point for staff and coaching changes to be made, IF any are warranted at that time.

Agree that it’s a ridiculous metric to use. It’s meaningless. Every team has to start a fair number of their draft picks - and a GM that’s run a team for a long time will have a bunch. Duh. Please note that I don’t think Beane is a poor drafter. I think he’s been average/solid. He’s found some good players but if I had one criticism it would be that since the Allen pick he hasn’t drafted a big difference maker (unless it happened this last draft). I’d like to see another home run soon. But people saying that he sucks don’t know what an average draft looks like. Overall he’s certainly put enough talent on the team to compete for a championship.

IIRC Burrow never said that he would “take less” money. What he said was more vague. Something like he’d “work with them on his contract to keep” Chase and Higgins. I took that to be more related to the structure of his contract (like Mahomes) or that he might trade non-guaranteed money for guaranteed money.

That’s a fair question. I agree that he never got anywhere close to the old Tre last season, but he did seem to be improving. By now he should be healthy and over the mental hurdles. The remaining question is whether he is back 100% physically. I have heard (Marino on Locked On Bills) that he looks great, but I haven’t seen it myself. So there’s some hope built into my prediction.

Obviously. But the question was whether or not we think Tre is back to form. Based on what I saw late last season I expect him to be. Pretty simple.

I expect Tre to be a top 10 CB this season.

No. It counts exactly the same as if they were on the 53. If the player has per game roster bonuses for being active then those obviously won’t be paid or count toward the cap. But that’s it.

That’s all correct from what I see. I think they still have to do one more on that list to do for in season stuff. Tre makes the most sense to me, but it could be any of the players you listed. The Bills can push things further if they really want to - and it would buy them some space - but the space would have to be rolled over anyway. That’s what the Browns are doing. The real issue is probably that they are #1 in cash spending this season - just ahead of the Browns. LINK More and more teams are moving to this model as it allows them to outspend other teams. An owner who has and is willing to spend cash is a requirement. The Bills, Browns, Saints and Eagles are all operating this way to varying degrees. Those teams are also getting picked over for new GMs who will do the same things with their new teams if allowed.

The reality is that they have pretty much done that already.

They were all included already. Just PS today.

PUP, NFI and IR players count toward the cap.

Correct. PS gets added today so the move was necessary to be cap compliant. I expect one more restructure to make room for regular in season transactions - call ups, IR replacements, etc. Almost certainly that’ll be Tre White or Dawkins.

You’re missing a few things: - The economics of players’ compensation in the NFL is pretty simple. As the NFL makes more and more money the increasing cap dollars flow to the difference makers (and to other places where there is scarcity). Aaron Donald is worth $30M/year because his contributions to adding wins absolutely are worth that. Also true FQBs are still underpaid at $50M/year when weighted against their contributions. - Dallas is 17th in cash spending this season. What team is #1 you ask? That’s our very own Buffalo Bills. LINK Cash is the most useful and telling metric for how teams are spending. Cap space and contracts can be manipulated to a large degree, but (except for a couple of very minor exceptions) cash always hits the cap. - No singular contract that is an outlier will impact negotiations on others much. Watson’s contract didn’t get any other QB a 5 year fully guaranteed deal.

The Bills have 5 DEs and 5 DTs on their 53 now. Plus Von Miller on PUP. It was a numbers issue so someone had to go. I think it was Basham because he was unhappy not getting on the field here and he wanted to go somewhere he could get some snaps.

Meh. He’s a bust for the Bills because we drafted him in the second round. That taints him here. But to everyone else he will be a capable backup DE who can kick inside if needed. He can last in the league. Just look at Shaq Lawson. No so great as far as a first round pick and I am glad we didn’t pay him. But he’s pretty nice to have as a backup at vet minimum.

He’s getting $72M. I think he’ll be okay whether he ever gets to a SB or not.

I know that it happened, but I’m not sure how often.

We could see huge changes in style and/or scheme or virtually nothing. I do think that there will be changes, but I couldn’t do more than guess what they’ll be.

For me the Bills defense is the most interesting thing to watch this season. I’m also interested in seeing how some players perform and how the offense develops, but how McDermott changes the defense and how it reflects his personality are #1 to me.