BarleyNY

First and foremost, Schoen should trust his evaluations of the QBs in this draft. One of the worst things a GM can do is to allow need to distort his evaluation of a player - especially a QB. Just because you have a need doesn't mean that there's a player who can fill it. It happens every year though. Honestly, their best option might be to tank this season after they acquire more draft capital in the 2025 draft so they can get their guy then.

I feel like I just walked in on him and Brittany. And also that I now have a better understanding of why he married her.

I think that it amounts to this: Teams have maxed out their ability to predict the success of draft prospects. The unnecessary extra work done on prospects doesn’t improve their hit rate, but only increases the confidence level and makes them overly confident in their decisions. So the first mistake teams make is overvaluing players they spend too much time on. Those are almost always the players that fit their needs. The second place teams make mistakes is when uninformed coaches or owners meddle. The Browns under Haslam were a huge offender of this until recently. The Justin Gilbert pick was to appease a DC who, at the last minute, demanded he be the draft pick because he needed a player like that to run his defense. No real work had been done on him since he hadn’t been a prospect the team was considering. So the Browns drafted a player who really didn’t like football in the top 10. Then later that night they traded back into the first round because the owner wanted Johnny Manziel. Analytics driven FOs know that there is a baseline level of uncertainty that is inherent in the NFL draft and they act accordingly. Quality teams are run with that in mind and without interference.

Yes. Actual cash out the door. By aggressively structuring (and re-structuring) contracts teams like Philadelphia are able to outspend the majority of teams. It is sustainable as long as there is not another Covid style event that causes a cap decrease. Teams still have to sign the correct players to the large deals. Hurts has a huge dead cap and is uncuttable, but Allen is as well. It’s the same for any highly paid player on a long term deal. Many teams will want to be more conservative due to a variety of reasons. A big one is that most owners don’t want to spend that much. Another is the inherent risks involved. Teams still have to draft and coach well - and make good decisions overall - but for some teams this is a big advantage. It’s how a team like Cleveland can still make the playoffs on their 4th string QB and how Philly is staying near the top of the league.

The Hurts deal shows how a team with an owner willing to consistently spend cash can gain a competitive advantage. The Browns are doing the same thing. Those teams rank 3rd and 1st in cash spend this season at $282.2M and $337.3M. The Eagles figure does not include the Smith deal so it’ll go higher. The Bills are 23rd at $214.0M. Link

Cap hits can be lowered like this if an owner is willing to spend.

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract.

Might as well just reduce this poll to Mitchell and Legette. That’s who I’m deciding between. Haha. Just read this right after I posted.

Going by the JJ chart we’d have to throw in every day 3 pick we have (except our 7th rounder) to make up the difference. Carolina would not do that. The Bills wouldn’t want to either. Washington could be a reasonable trade partner. Something like 28 and 128 for 40 and 78 makes sense. Trade value chart

10 of the last 22 Super Bowls were won by Brady (7) or Mahomes(3). Add in the Mannings and Roethlisberger who have 2 each and we are up to 16 of the last 22. With that in mind, no conclusions can be drawn about draft picks spent on WRs in that time frame.

I’m betting that doesn’t happen. It would be a massive overpay by Carolina. A move from 33 to 28 would be worth less than their fourth round pick at 101.

I get that people want to find something good about Elam’s performance to indicate improvement. And it was the last game we saw him in since he didn’t play against KC. But I can’t get excited about one game against Mason Rudolph. Again, hang onto him, coach him up, hope for the best, but anything we get from him is a bonus to me.

I’m disgusted that some people would give Simpson the same respect in death as his victims deserved. This world is a better place without him.

It’s not going to work for many reasons, some of which I stated above. But the cold, hard reality is that you gave the reason it is often prudent to trade player like Milano. Outside of Allen the team is devoid of difference makers. Milano will be 30 before the season starts and 31 is the typical age of the start of decline for LBers. What’s the realistic overlap of him still being a difference maker and the team acquiring enough other ones to be in position to compete for a championship? It’s not zero, but absolute best case is 2025. Two successful drafts and a successful 2025 FA haul. 2025 is his age 31 season and last under contract. Maybe he stays for a lesser deal at that point or maybe he gets replaced by a younger player. It would be nice if he could be along for the next ride. I love Milano as a player and I don’t want to see him go. He is one of my favorites. The emotional side of me is very happy he will be here this season. But the analytical side of me knows what the best long term move for the Bills would be if he had significant trade value. We’d use that to help the team reload and acquire young talent to make the next run even if it hurt both emotionally and on the field this season.

I had the same thought, but no. Two reasons. Contract. We don’t have the room to absorb his dead money. Also not coming off of that injury. Teams would need to know what they’d be getting in a trade and they wouldn’t. Otherwise it would be something to consider as he’s 30 before this season.

That’s one hell of a find. Visits and other meetings for every team over years. I’m sure it’s incomplete, but it’s the best source I’ve seen and he allows his file to be downloaded. Kudos!

McDermott is 5-0 in the playoffs against 5-7 seeds and 0-6 against 1-4 seeds. I don’t see how losing some of the team’s best players - whether that was to injury, age, trade or free agency - is going to help us over that hump. The Bills should be a good team again, but we need several difference makers besides Allen to compete for a title. This draft is about finding at least one of those. They’ll draft and spend next offseason on players they think can add to that list. Obviously the coaches have to do their jobs too.

I figured that was probably it. He did flash, but his issues showed up consistently too. It doesn’t make any sense to cut or trade him at this time because we’re paying him either way and there’s still a chance that things will click for him. It’s not likely, but it’s not like we have other CBs pushing him off the roster either.

What makes you think that?

I agree with this. Another team would have to be willing to take on his guaranteed contract. $4.5M total for 2024 & 2025. That makes it tough because they’d be stuck with that if he didn’t work out. That really tanks his value.

No one seems to be complaining about the extra money being brought in by it - 48.8% of which goes to the players.

Samuel was signed to fill Diggs’ spot. I’m not saying that he will be as productive as Diggs was, but he’s a similar type of player. I think we also will draft a player on day 3 to groom behind him. Ofc that’s in addition to an X WR early in the draft.

Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama. Off the field - and on the field after a game - concerns but 1st round talent. Some team will get a steal on day 2 if he puts that stuff behind him.

It’s not rare or surprising to see sports media bury stories that the team or league wants buried. Michigan chested their way to a NC. No one spoke about that. The Bills reporters know that their jobs will get much more difficult- if not downright impossible - if they run negative stories about the Bills. They can slag someone who is no longer here or is on their way out. No issues there, but if they do anything that really hurts the team - and, yes, including true, reportable incidents - then they might as well find a new line of work. Some stories do spill over into the mainstream media and they don’t stay under wraps, but by and large this is how it works.

The only issue is that a team trading for him would take on his guaranteed contract. $4.7M total for 2024 & 2025. There have been recent trades where guaranteed money reverts back to the original team if the player is cut. I’m not interested but I’d want us to insist on that if we did acquire him.