BarleyNY

I only have one thought on why this could have made some sense. KS may have intended to go for 2 after a TD. That would have them playing for a FG on their second possession if KC matched them. I think there’s merit to taking the initiative in that situation rather than letting your opponent dictate the outcome with their two point try. The question then becomes “Why didn’t they go for it on fourth down?” Maybe the distance was too great and the math said to kick the FG, but it had to be close. I think if that is your plan then you have to go for it.

KC scored on their last four drives and on five of their last six. Seems to me like Mahomes dialed it in before OT. And he did it with a far inferior supporting cast compared to what Purdy was working with.

If KC had put a QB on the field who was equivalent to Purdy, then SF would’ve easily walked away with the win. Mahomes was the difference between a not very close loss and a very close win.

Crap. You’re right. I misremembered that. I thought they got a TD there.

Two big differences between regular season and playoff games are coaching and management of pressure. 1) The best coaches plan for the playoffs. They save plays and wrinkles in their schemes to take advantage of other teams’ weaknesses. One example from the last Chiefs-Bills playoff game. Reid put 10 men on the field for the Bills punt that got faked. He knew from it happening previously in the regular season that the Bills had the fake baked into their system and were likely to run it if they faced 10 or less men. They knew exactly what was coming and got a huge turnover on downs. It is very unlikely that KC wins that game without that play. 2) Pressure increases throughout the playoffs, ramping up each and every round and in close games. Coaches have to instill confidence in their players that they are up to the task and putting them in the best position to succeed. We’ve certainly seen pressure get to this coaching staff (13 sec) and team (2022 playoffs). The expectations have to be that the coaches and players will prevail, not that someone will find a way to lose. Problems here manifest themselves as blunders, unnecessary risks lack of focus. Hero ball and overly aggressive play calling are examples.

I think there is a kind of roster window that extends through 2024. There will be a big turnover of older, highly paid vets by then. We may see the start of it this offseason, but next is the big pivot point. Allen’s window will be open for quite some time. The way I see it, he will likely have a career of 12-15 years including development and quality QB play. He’d be aged 33-36 at the end of that span. We are 6 years into that so while his window is wide open for years to come, we have already burned through 40-50% of his career. Tick tock.

Agreed. This season MVP seemed like a war of attrition. There was a list of 6-10 players and, gradually, all but Lamar crossed themselves off of it with a poor performance. Those playing the “reverse racism” card are just showing us their character.

Didn’t the Bills win streak down the stretch happen right after they started running the ball more?

I think we are in very good shape with Cook as RB1. I like him a lot in that role. But we need a quality RB2. Joe Marino talked about this on Locked On Bills on the RB episode. Cook had over 300 touches (315 IiRC). That is about double his next highest year, including college. He clearly broke down late in the season and in the playoffs and was less efficient overall - and more prone to drops. Notably his workload increased under Brady so this happened even with a lighter load in the first 10 games. So if Brady’s offense is going to utilize the RB as much as it did last season, getting a quality RB2 is of paramount importance. We could also use a good short yardage back whether that’s part of our RB2’s skill set or our RB3’s.

Thanks. I’ll do that. How’s his separation?

I have not done much research yet, but so far I am less enamored with Nabers than MHJ or Odunze. Sadly, MHJ is out of reach as we’d have to get to 3 (NE) or 4. I’d do a Julio Jones type of trade in a heartbeat for him though. Even if the first team not taking a QB was dumb enough to trade out realistically we don’t have the ammo to get there. I have no issue with making a big move for the right player, but I don’t expect more than a small trade up. As has become typical we will have to do that because the league will know what position we need to address in round 1. Ofc we might have a couple WRs rated closely and not need to do that. Im just hopeful we can get our guy and not have a McDuffy incident again.

I answered the question succinctly. While it’s not reasonable to expect a Patriots-esque dynasty even with one of the best few QBs in the league, it’s also a failure to not achieve more than what the Bills have to date. It’s like having one of the 3 fastest cars in the Indy 500 and always finishing in the top 10, but never coming close to winning it. Year after year after year. Someone isn’t making the most of what they have. The Bills have the deck stacked in their favor and they have been nothing more than a middling playoff team. It’s frustrating because their potential consistently exceeds their results. This isn’t about any one season, it’s about the pattern of underperformance. Next offseason will see the Bills part ways with a lot of expensive vets. It’s a logical pivot point to a new HC, but I agree with you - no guarantees.

Compared to the average team, sure. Making it to the final 8 every year would be considered an accomplishment. But with Josh Allen at QB it’s decidedly underachieving. Ofc each fan can decide how they feel about the whole situation. Personally I think it’s a travesty to excuse such failure.

1. The Browns first choice for OC was Kellen Moore who took the Philly job. I can’t imagine they expected him to take the job without having play calling duties. Stefanski is expected to retain them, but they have only said that it’s something they’re working through with Dorsey. 2. I doubt any OC would really care about any past off field stuff with Watson. The top concern for most is the opportunity, which means the talent of their QB and offense. An OC could certainly do a lot worse - especially considering what a turnaround for Watson would mean for an OC’s career. 3. You don’t want Brady to consider himself a leader of the offense? I sure do. It’s not like there can be only one leader.

Yeah. The $6.7M cap savings that we would realize on 6/1/24 would not limit our roster moves. The Bills would put that toward the transition to 53 + PS and in season moves. As for the $15.4M hit in 2025 and the dead cap in 2024, that’s sunk costs. We’re going to have to eat that regardless. It’s just a matter of timing and whether or not we want to add more to it. Lastly, a Von Miller suspension that voids his remaining guarantees would be a huge boon for the Bills. That would be $10.7M in cash and cap space we could get out from under. If I were Pegula or Beane I’d be lobbying Goodell to suspend him.

The Von Miller question does boil down to whether he’s worth keeping for $6.7M (the currently non-guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary) this season or not. The rest is sunk cost. I agree that it would be better to just take the “L” on this one and move on. His release (with a 6/1 designation) would have to be done by 3/17 when that last $6.7M fully guarantees.

Only a release can be designated 6/1 - each team has 2 such designations per year to use. A trade would have to happen 6/1 or later.

You never know what can happen. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that the team can take a step forward. Mostly I'm resigned to more of the same With McDermott though. At some point the players have to lose confidence. I think they believe in Allen, but I don’t think they believe that they’ll win in the playoffs - not with this HC and against a quality opponent. I really hated to hear McDermott bring up the injuries. Your leader can’t make excuses. The team has to understand that there’s no such thing as a valid excuse. Regardless he’s got at least 2024 to show what he can do for the team. Nothing to do except hope for the best.

The stadium deal is an overlooked factor in decisions about the staff and team. It’s driving a lot of it.

I wouldn't put that fine a point on it, but next offseason is a logical point to make a regime or HC change. Tabling the conversation about how warranted that would be, a lot of expensive vets will be gone after next year and the Bills will want a HC in place that they are confident will be here for the long haul because this team will be in a position to spend to acquire players for that coach's system. It would be a huge mistake to allow that to happen and then change coaches. If McDermott is here for that transition, then I'd expect him to be here long enough to get another contract extension. Or we will have a new HC. On a related note, that logical pivot point is putting some pressure on McDermott regardless of how his long term tenure is regarded by the Pegulas. He's not dumb. He can see it. That is why I expect less turnover than many others. If I was in that spot there's no way I'd be taking the risk of flipping the roster. That can wait until next offseason. 2024 would be a push to win it all.

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/253014-browns-hire-dorsey-as-oc/#comments

Also Taylor Swift is dating Travis Kelce!

The Bills would automatically get hit with the dead cap from unamortized money they already paid Diggs. Nothing can be done about that.* Dead money can also come from future guarantees, but that’s if a player is cut. The new team would assume that cap hit in a trade. *Technically the exception is if the player would pay money back, which almost never happens.

Wow. I certainly disagree with that. He’s the polar opposite of Elam, who is the terrible fit here.