BarleyNY

Thought I'd start a discussion about some off season issues on the bye. I need a break from current threads. A lot of assumptions have to be made, but we can take a reasonable stab at this point. Cap issues are coming. Not cap hell, but maybe cap heck. Decisions will need to be made. Assuming a cap limit of $150M (which should be close) and Harvin not being retained ($2M dead money) we'll be right at the limit. Clay's $20M roster bonus will be converted to a signing bonus, freeing up $7.5M and there should be a carryover of about $6.5 from this year (give or take). That's $14M in space for 2016 with about 42 players on the roster. The rookie pool will be about $7M for the Bills (guesstimating). That would leave about $7M for other moves. So, what needs done? The offensive line is the big issue. Glenn is out of contract and so is Incognito. That's huge. Even average LTs are expensive and Incognito's price will be going up from this year's team friendly deal. Bradham is a FA as well, but he's going to likely have to take a back seat to the OL on getting a deal done. I expect him to walk. Who can help? Gilmore. He's on his option year at over $11M. He will need guaranteed money and a nice signing bonus, but a long term deal should free up some space for 2016. If Incognito is given a multi year deal his hit shouldn't be that bad either. Glenn is going to come down to the market and I suspect he will leave because he can get a bigger deal elsewhere. I'd like the Bills to find a way to keep him though. Even if both Glenn and Incognito are retained the Bills are going to have to rely on experience and familiarity to improve that unit. Or they're going to have to draft OL. If they lose Glenn, then LT become a huge draft priority. Bills 2016 cap outlook: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2016/ (Note that Spotrac assumes Harvin won't be back in their breakdown) Current CB contracts: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cornerback/ Current LT contracts: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/left-tackle/

I have. I've been pretty adamant about the Jax game being the coffin nail that that mattered even if it isn't technically the last one. Just thought I should own up to the statistics being a bit better than I thought they'd be at this point.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/ Here's some relatively good news. According to fivethirtyeight's model the Bills still have a 17% chance to make the playoffs as a wildcard. That is a 1-in-6 chance, which is a bit higher than I was expecting after hitting the 3-4 mark.

That's all true as well. That clause is in virtually every Team President, GM and HC contract, but it is rarely used due to the rarity of ownership change. It also happened in Cleveland with their regime when Lerner sold to Haslam. In this case Marrone was looking for a bunch more money wherever he could get it - from the Pegulas or from double dipping. He overplayed his hand. The Pegulas didn't buckle and the Jets didn't bite.

Marrone bailed because Pegula wouldn't give him an extension on his contract. It was the right move by Pegula m

Brutal, but fair.

We really don't know what's going on behind the scenes or in the locker room. We've heard that some players are unhappy with how they've been used, but that was after a tough loss and that talk hasn't gotten out of hand. I don't see the Bills making the playoffs, but I don't see any big changes either. Has anyone heard how the relationship between Whaley and Rex is? I've heard nothing negative on that front - unlike with Whaley and Marrone. So if the coach and the GM are working well together and Rex hasn't lost the team I don't see any big changes. IMO it would be a big mistake to make any unless there's some real issues that haven't come to light.

So that's what you got out of what I wrote? Wow.

I'd put my money on Philly with Chip Kelly. If Kelly bails then whomever offers the most money, which would probably be Houston.

I prefer to live in the real world. Wishing real hard for your dreams to come true is for little kids at Disney. Trying to maintain a realistic view of things doesn't mean I'm not ever wrong, but it keeps me from getting worked up and overexcited about popular fantasies - like thinking the Bills were heading to the Super Bowl this off season and going out and blowing thousands of dollars on season tickets. Or buying a Harvin jersey. But it also gives me perspective when things look bad. Many people are realizing that the Bills aren't what they thought they'd be, but that doesn't mean they're a bad team. They're not. They're probably above average overall, but they lack some things: A bona fide franchise QB would make a tremendous difference. So will scheme familiarity. Experience in the system and tailoring the system to players' strengths will help. There's no guarantee that the coaches will succeed at that, but it's not fair to blame them for not having it done now. I'm not one of the people on the "fire everybody" bandwagon either. Why would somebody want to live a Pollyanna life or a bipolar over reactive way?

I will check out some Memphis games.

I'd be ecstatic with Goff or Cook, but neither is likely to be attainable in the draft for the Bills. But I'd sure go all out to snag one if possible.

I honestly don't remember. I don't listen to much local sports radio so it might have been on one of the Sirius sports stations. I googled it and didn't come up with anything. Maybe someone inferred that from recent events and reported it - or maybe I did. If I find it I'll post a link here. It was right when this all started and I've come to learn that the moments before agents, lawyers and PR professionals get involved is when the unvarnished truth is usually told. Once everyone in the CYA business is on the case, that's all over. For example, a player gets injured playing basketball in the offseason, tweets it and within a couple hours the story changes to "injured myself training". That happened with Suggs a few years back. I suspect it happened with Fred and Lynch screwing around and racing out of the team parking lot. It happens with a lot more serious things than the examples I just gave, too.

Honestly, he's a wreck in just about every conceivable way. He hasn't seemed to have recovered from the knee injuries physically, he hasn't figured out how to play QB effectively from the pocket (which he has to do since his knee problems) and his teammates have him pegged as a poor leader with a me-first attitude. All he brings is a name. Someone will give him a shot - and I wouldn't even mind the Bills bringing him in as a reclamation project - but he shouldn't be looked at as a reliable or quick answer.

If he's not coming back id rather they reach an injury settlement with him and free up a little cap room. Posturing and money. Harvin and his agent want all of the $1.63M remaining salary for the season and they want to keep all of the $3M signing bonus already paid. If Harvin was to elect to retire at this point (not injury related) then the Bills wouldn't owe him his remaining salary and could try to recoup a prorated portion of his signing bonus - either $1.69M or $2.56M depending upon whether his contract is considered 1 or 3 years in length. If he's too injured to play again this season due to football injury then the Bills could recoup nothing and would owe him his remaining salary for the year. The Bills would rather he play if able, I'm sure, but you can't make him do that. I'd wager that there's a substantial difference between what team doctors say about his ability to play again this season and what he's saying. Thus the rumors about him being angry the Bills won't IR him, about him retiring, etc. Hopefully this gets worked out over the break and he either sucks it up and gets back on the field or they reach some sort of settlement that yields some cap relief.

Are you trying to one-up the poster who suggested signing Tebow to win the highly coveted stupidest post award?

To be fair, the people who said the Bills wouldn't make the playoffs last season were right. And there's a difference between understanding the path a team is currently on and thinking that path can't change. Right now the Bills aren't going to the playoffs. The odds are statistically very low. That's reality. Now if the team comes back from the break with Taylor hot and the team playing great around him and they start to rip off some wins, then things change. But right now that's wishful thinking. As for yesterday, I actually called a comeback that would fall just short. I made the call at halftime. The reason for thinking it would fall short was EJ. I'd have been more confident with Taylor.

That's the issue. One would think that if the injury was serious he'd be IRed, but that's not happening. That's what's leading many of us to infer that this is more of an issue of Harvin not wanting to play for the Bills anymore this year. He's probably dinged. He could probably play through it now or at some point this season at less than 100%. He'd probably rather shut it down and get healthy for his next contract. That would all make sense and be in line with his past behavior.

The Cowboys play in the NFCN where the division leader is 4-3. The Bills play in the AFCE where the division leader is 6-0. If the Bills were in the AFCS we'd be singing a different tune.

The problem with the Bills at 9-7 isn't that a 9-7 team might not make the last WC spot, it's that the Bills won't win that tiebreaker. They've already got 3 AFC losses (3-3) and will likely have more coming with their schedule.

Sabres and Bills out of it by October. Welcome to Buffalo.

Actually the Bills could only try to recoup a pro-rated portion of his signing bonus if he retired due to not wanting to play anymore. If he retires due to injury they cannot recoup any signing bonus money. Harvin is a vested veteran so a release by the team would typically mean he'd get his salary for the remainder of the year too, but I'm not sure If that's true for a retirement. I'd guess that it'd work the same as the signing bonus - they wouldn't have to pay if retirement was elective, but would if he retired due to injury. The whole question of severity of injury and whether or not it should equate to a retirement isn't easy to prove and there's a pretty bright spotlight on player injuries right now. If Harvin is taking a powder the Bills might be best served reaching some sort of settlement with him and moving on. Signing players with anything close to Harvin's track record to anything but incentive laden contracts is rarely a smart move. The Bills made a mistake and it's going to cost them $6M for minimal production. It was a stupid move and the (very predictable) result sucks, but it isn't the end of the world.

The Bills are currently in 8th place in the AFC playoff race (of 12 teams). They're 4th in their division (of 4 teams). They're currently behind the likes of the Dolphins and the RAIDERS for a WC spot. Let that sink in.

So, you want to ditch an inaccurate QB with poor decision making for a weak-armed, inaccurate QB with poor decision making ability?

Yeah, this was it. It'll be a bit before the Bills are mathematically eliminated, but this was the coffin nail that mattered. 3-4 means they can weather one or maybe two losses in the last 9 games to have a chance at a WC. Two wins against the Jets would almost certainly be a must. With those two games, a game at NE and a home game against Dallas (with a likely healthy Romo) it's a highly improbable road even if they take care of the other 5. I really thought 10-6 and the last WC spot was very realistic, but not anymore. 7 or 8 wins is where they'll likely land.