BarleyNY

Yup. Gotta make that one up somewhere. The game at the Jets looks like it.

Gotta earn the respect we desire. Jets as a slight favorite at home on a nationally televised game makes sense. That would indicate that the general opinion is that the two teams are considered to be pretty evenly matched. After this game the general public is either going to view the Bills as a likely wild card team or an also-ran.

I like dividing the season to quarters when appraising a team. It helps to not get too high or too low over any single game. The Bills definitely need to go 3-1 over the next quarter season. This game against the Jets is as close to a must-win as I can imagine for a ninth game of the season.

Yup. It takes two to tango. Hope so.

I think TT still gets signed, but McCown would have been the starter. TT would have done nicely when he was out injured and the Bills would have another win or two overall.

http://projects.five...fl-predictions/ 14th ranked team in the NFL by fivethirtyeight. Bills are up to a 28% chance to make the playoffs and an 8-8 projected record. The Jets have a 50% chance and 9-7 projected record. Obviously Thursday night is going to have a tremendous impact. They have the odds of that game Jets 56%-44% Bills. That's tight.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/ fivethirtyeight is updated for the week. Bills are up to a 28% chance to make the playoffs and an 8-8 projected record. The Jets have a 50% chance and 9-7 projected record. Obviously Thursday night is going to have a tremendous impact on their projection. They have the odds of that game Jets 56%-44% Bills. That's tight.

Me too! Those just for the day or can you get a season pass?

Agreed. Chasing the last nickel is going to ruin the NFL. 12 of 32 teams is plenty. I hate seeing sub .500 teams in basketball and hockey make the playoffs every year. Even baseball with 162 games has .500 teams in the hunt until the last week or two every season. I don't want to see several 6-8 teams - or, God forbid, a 6-9 team - in the hunt for a wild card spot at the end of the season. As much as I hate seeing that happen, it's not that common in the NFL for a division winner to be .500 or below. If winning a division doesn't matter, then the alternative is to eliminate divisions. That kills rivalries and lumps every team into two (or one big) pot. It would also make scheduling a nightmare. That'd be tragic for the game. And if you left divisions in place how ridiculous would it be to send a team that was second or third placed in their division with a 9-7 record take the playoff spot of an 8-8 division winner especially if the division winner had a tougher schedule?

Does anyone believe that there's any reasonable chance of that being the case?

Agreed. With Taylor's size and game I think QB is a priority. When I refer to his "game" I mean that running and the threat of him running are big parts of him being successful. Since he doesn't have the size to sustain a lot of punishment the Bills have to have another QB on the roster who can play if/when he gets dinged or badly injured. I think we can all (most of us?) agree that EJ isn't that guy. If they can get their hands on someone who might be better than TT, then that's awesome. If not, get a guy who you think can be a solid, long term backup. But get someone. Somewhere. Make it a priority, but not necessarily in round 1.

I've been thinking about which team the short week helps more and I just don't know. Typically the two big factors are lack of time to install a specific game plan and getting people healthy. The health angle doesn't seem to be a huge factor if Shady is okay. Rex knows the Jets personnel well and they know him well. Don't know that there's an advantage there. Thoughts?

http://overthecap.com/player/ej-manuel/2197/ Manuel's cap number next season is $2.8M. That's the last year of his contract and carries no cap implications beyond that. $1.2M of that is due to the proration of his signing bonus. Nothing can be done about that. The other $1.6M due to him is guaranteed salary. The Bills are on the hook for that with the exception of him being traded or cut and signed by another team. If he would be cut and picked up off of waivers or traded then his new team would owe him the $1.6M and the Bills would be off the hook for that. His contract has offset language so if he cleared waivers the amount of the salary his new team pays him would be deducted from the $1.6M the Bills owe him in cash payments and, consequently, cap space.

Wow. You'd think Cam Newton would be better at talking to the media by now. His best move today is to quietly send that guy a cashier's check for $500. It's a cheap way for him to end this today and look reasonable in the process.

I'm not arguing that. Just stating where this is going. Whaley shouldn't be cast off. Give him his full chance and don't be surprised if he goes all out for a QB.

I agree. If the NFL is going to protect QBs and call PFs on defenders who rough them up then they have to blow those kinds of plays dead. The other one I've seen is a QB at the sideline jumping out of bounds and throwing the ball while in the air. If the defender hits him, it's 15. If he doesn't, the QB has an opportunity to complete a pass or throw the ball away when he should have been sacked.

Whaley's legacy in Buffalo will hinge on him finding a franchise QB to lead the Bills. It's not necessarily fair, but it's just the way it is. A team can only be so good without one and having one can really cover some major warts.

While I don't want to get into the Shady-Kiko debate (again), I do take issue with your comments on available cap space next season. If the 2016 cap is $150M (which seems to be the guesstimate everyone is running with), then the Bills currently sit with about $0 available. Clay's restructure and Harvin's voiding will put them at $15.5M. They should also have at least $5M in carryover from this season. $21M in space by that point is likely. A decision about McKelvin would also need made. I dealt with a Mario extension in a thread about it. Also Gilmore could have a long term contract done which should free up a little space. The Bills won't be up against the wall at that time, but they also have to worry about some FAs: Glenn, Incognito, Bradham, etc. - and they will need space for the rookie pool.

That's fair. And I'll add that even though some of us were critical about mistakes or issues we can also recognize when they get corrected or overcome. I criticized the Bills for not making adjustments like Miami did in the first half. That was the case at the time, but the Bills did correct that and also started to do some things that Miami couldn't figure out in time.

Does it matter who wins the Oakland - Pittsburgh game?

Yup. That did it. Bortles may someday develop into a franchise QB, but not until he can take care of the ball better.

Wow. The day just almost got better. Jax almost got a fumble recovery.

Nice win today! I was impressed by them slamming the door on the Fish. They absolutely had to have this one and they got it.

No. You have to extend him as part of - not prior to - the restructure. In general restructures just shift some of a player's current year cap charges to future years. The typical way to do this is to convert a portion of the player's salary and/or roster and workout bonuses to a signing bonus. The player is happy because he gets his money a little earlier than he would have. The team is happy because they delay their cap hit. Clay is a good example. He has a $10M roster bonus due in the offseason. That will all count toward the 2016 cap if left in place. But it won't be. It was just done that way to keep Miami from matching his deal. They will restructure it to a roster bonus, which is amortized over the rest of the contract (up to 5 years or the end of the CBA). He has 4 years after this one on his deal so the cap hits will be $2.5M in each year from 2016-2019 instead of $10M in 2016. That clears $7.5M in 2016 and adds $2.5M to seasons 2017-2019. To free up any worthwhile amount of cap space for any significant amount of time from Mario's contract he'd have to have some years added. How long he is expected to be a highly productive is of paramount importance because if he is released, retires, or is traded any unaccounted for signing bonus dollars get accelerated into the current year (or the following year if after June 15th). This offseason Mario and the Bills could, for example, agree to a 2 year extension (through 2019) and convert his whole $2.5M roster bonus and $9.5M of his salary ($12M total) to a signing bonus. That would spread out the $12M cap hit in 2016 to four $3M cap hits in each season from 2016-2019. His 2016 cap hit would be reduced by $9M, but his cap hit in 2017 would increase by $3M and hed also have additional $3M cap hits in 2018 and 2019. In short, there's no free lunch but you can defer the cap hit. An argument for deferring cap hits is that the cap almost always rises so taking a hit in future years will take up a proportionately lower percentage of the overall space. The big arguments against it are that sometimes players will lack motivation after they get one big payday and then a relatively small salary especially if the restructure makes it difficult for the team to cut or trade them. That's the second argument against it - it can really create issues if a player becomes a big off the field problem, gets suspended or retires unexpectedly due to injury. New Orleans is going through this now.

Wow!