BarleyNY

It's a terrible contract. The structure made a lot of sense technically, but it is stupid from an overpayment perspective.

Nothing funny about it. The deal was set up to be restructured. Whether or not the $10M cash payment is a roster or signing bonus is meaningless to Clay, but how it is allocated for a cap perspective is very different. It was nearly impossible for Miami to match that contract.

I don't like that one bit. It makes the most sense for them to wait and see if he improves this season. TT seemed fine with that, so why rock the boat? I don't like that this could become a distraction.

Two other players took their spots on the team, even if you want to argue that those players were at different positions. Incidentally, EJ does have a guaranteed salary but it also has offsets. If he is cut and signed by another team for the 2016 season, then his pay in 2016 will be deducted from what the Bills owe him.

Not really. Those releases did reduce the Bills cap by $4.5M, but they had to be replaced. Pick your replacements, but their releases saved more like $2.5M-$3.5M depending upon which players were on the roster in place of them. Keep this in mind with the release of Mario. That'll reduce the Bills cap number by $12.9M, but another player will automatically roll up into the Top 51 and their $525K salary will reduce that gain to $12.4M. Of course, if a player like Incognito is re-signed his immediate cap hit will be reduced by $525k as that aforementioned player player rolls back off.

Correct. Adjusted cap space is just the league base cap space plus carryover (and, rarely, plus or minus any other team specific modification such as the cap penalties Washington and Dallas got a few years back).

Yup. Need to clear some space for RFA and ERFA contracts, too. Those qualifying offers need to be submitted by 3/9. Hers a list of all Bills FAs: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/

Pretty decent breakdown, except it is incorrect about the June 1st designation. For cap purposes the contract is carried by the team as if the player is still on the roster until June 1st. They don't get immediate cap relief as the article states. No bonuses can be earned and there is no risk of the player being injured in team activities which would restrict the team from releasing the player.

Andy Dalton is ranked 6th on that list. Just let that sink in.

Colton was an excellent WR. He's just hit that expected drop off due to age. It happens to everyone and there's no shame in it. He might have a little more time left, but he'll have a reduced role and probably be expected to mentor. I don't see Buffalo as a great place for that kind of player at that stage in his career.

Those are all fair points. You never know if a player gets pushed up draft boards late for a BS reason like they tested well at the combine or for a legit reason like the media finally got caught on to what pro scouts already knew.

I got confused about when Hue Jackson went to Cleveland. Obviously that did not impact the Hue vs. Rex decision in Buffalo.

Actually, you're right. He was a late riser. He was a late round projection at the end of the college season, but he moved up to the 3rd-4th round post season. I do always worry about late risers.

Agreed. It's Miller's second season so he deserves a shot, but he should have legitimate competition and have to earn it. It'd be ridiculous to see him as the only realistic option at RG. RT needs a big improvement too. Last season the Bills only had three offensive linemen who should have been starting for an NFL team. Now two of them are set to become free agents if not extended in the coming weeks. That's scary. I don't need players, third round OGs for example, to come in and be world beaters right away. But they shouldn't be starting if they aren't ready. They should be learning and gaining playing time as they earn it. Furthermore, I'll say this on Miller. If you're going to draft a player projected as a late day three pick in the third round and then start that player immediately, then you'd better be right about him.

I'm not discounting Kirby's info. Perhaps Whaley preferred Hue Jackson, but Hue decided he preferred Cleveland. That doesn't tell me what Whaley thought of Rex. Or did I miss more info from Kirby? I would have LOVED a Jackson and Schwartz duo in Buffalo. That would have been a killer combo.

The ankle injury may very well have been a factor in Miller's dismal season, but I think it's fair to say that he's got to do much better in 2016 if he wants to stick. If he stays healthy and performs poorly again he will start looking like a guy who can't play in the league. If he gets dinged (or worse) again and it affects his performance he will get labeled as injury prone and unreliable. He's got 2016 to prove his worth, but I doubt he gets more than that if he doesn't.

Honest question: Is there any reliable information regarding Whaley's preferences for/against any of the HC candidates? Or are people just trying to read things into the situation? Obviously Rex was the Pegulas choice, but I have no idea what Whaley's thoughts were on him or any other candidate. I know the story about Rex telling saying he'd keep Schwartz and then flipping on that immediately after being hired. If true, Rex wouldn't be the first guy to tell someone what he wants to hear to get a job and Whaley could have fallen for the same line. It takes some big brass ones to do something like that so quickly, however. Of course, it also could have been a face saving measure for the Pegulas who had given Schwartz some assurances. Maybe the Pegulas intended to keep Schwartz, but then Rex became available and they thought he was worth losing Schwartz for. That kind of thing happens and that scenario makes a lot more sense. In any event, we are where we are and I think Whaley and Rex are going to live or die together here in Buffalo.

I'd say there is a big difference between 9th in the NFL and 1st. 9th tells us that we have a strong running game, and that's good. We do. But each is just a sliver of information. Taken together 1st overall, 9th w/o TT's rushing tells me the QB is running a lot, maybe too much. Now let's dig a bit more. TT is 7th in passer rating and QBR, which is very good. But he was also 23rd in total passing yards and 24th in attempts, so he's not passing all that often. So we see who he was in 2015 - and who the Bills were. They ran the ball a lot. Both the RBs and QB did. The passing game was efficient, but was not as big a part of the offense as typical in the NFL. Lastly, the Bills were 13th in offensive yards per game and 12th in points per game. That's pretty good overall. The defense's rank of 19th in YPG and 15th in PPG was weaker. Just for fun I looked at the average of those rankings (12+13+19+15)/4=14.75. That's very close to the league average of 16.5 so the 8-8 record makes a lot of sense. I'd expect a team with that average ranking to finish with 8 or 9 wins.

I've been preaching the same. TT's propensity to run instead of completing his professions also limits the number of pass plays the OC can call. I looked at one random game and calculated that TT ran on 40% of his drop backs. I'll be keeping track in every game next season. That's just way too much (even if his season percentage is somewhat less). I understand that he is making positive plays instead of throwing incompletions, but he is also missing open receivers. Ultimately it is defeating. His dropbacks will always have to be limited and, with his size, he can't last continuing to play like that. He's going to have to force himself to stay in the pocket and get through his progressions if he's going to improve and there will be some growing pains if he does that. I'd much rather see him struggle early but grow rather than see what I saw last year.

The top rushing teams in the league are usually the ones with QBs who run a lot. Those running QBs inflate their team's rushing numbers quite a bit and that's certainly the case with the Bills. So don't put much stock in their team rushing rank.

Why do you think it's smart of Whaley to have so many players under contract at this time? Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's dumb or necessarily a bad move or anything. I just don't see any real advantage. As for Mario, if Rex isn't going anywhere anytime soon and he isn't going to utilize him properly then Whaley might as well release him. The individual defensive front seven players - as well as the the defense as a whole - had huge drop offs in 2016. If it was just Mario then I'd put the blame on him, but it was everyone. The problem was scheme. The Bills will lose a substantial amount of talent when Mario is released, even if they weren't bothering to utilize it.

The rule of 51 applies at this time. That means only the top 51 players on the roster count toward the total cap number.

That's certainly true, but with the money being spent on Clay and many other draft needs I don't see how the Bills acquire a complete TE the caliber of a Heath Miller. I was just trying to focus on what might be more attainable right now. I certainly wasn't clear about that.

I love complete TEs like Miller, but I'm not sure that's the best pairing with Clay. Clay is a do-everything-well kind of TE. Wasn't that the allure? He could create mismatches because he could do so many different things? The Bills would be better served to combine Clay with a flex TE who is a stud receiver. Even if that's all the other TE could do really well.

I'd be absolutely stunned. Let's look at the facts: - Mario isn't happy with his use in Rex's system and would rather be primarily rushing the QB. - Rex can get a much cheaper player to do what he wants (drop in coverage, maintain the edge, occasionally rush the QB). - The Bills need the cap space Mario's release would give them, badly. - Mario is due a $2.5M roster bonus in a few weeks. Barring a big change in defensive philosophy and a willingness to allow Mario to rush the passer the table is set for a very bad situation. Mario was clearly very frustrated last season. He sure looked like he was phoning it in at times in the last game or two. He had already heard the rumors of his imminent release. It isn't a good situation now and I s there any reason to think that there won't be worse problems if he's kept for 2016? Since Rex and his defensive philosophy aren't going anywhere in 2016, Mario is.