BarleyNY

JFC, give the EJ crap a rest. Taylor's getting roasted for it right now - and deservedly so.

I agree that the game plan was excellent. It wasn't executed as well as it should have been, particularly by Taylor. McKelvin's fumbles were back breakers as well. If they both execute, then the Bills likely would have won. But I do blame the coaches for several things including a lack of discipline at times. 10 men on the field, confusion at the end of the game, sending McKelvin out to continue to return kicks after two turnovers, kicking on 4th and 2 at midfield late in the game, etc. While I certainly don't pin this loss on the coaches, there are definitely places where they can improve.

I'm not sure how anyone pins this on Roman's play calling. He called a very good game IMO. Certainly good enough to win this one. This game was on McKelvin's turnovers, Taylor's inability to throw well on several deep passes - including two would-be TDs had he not floated those balls - and the coaches who are ultimately to blame for the disarray the various squads were in at critical times. HTF do the coaches let McKelvin continue to return kicks after two turnovers? After the second one, every mistake he made was on the coaches who sent him back out there. Ridiculous. I'll give the coaches credit for making the best out of Taylor, but a quality QB wins this game and that's not on them. To win against the best teams you have to have a QB who can contribute a lot more than Taylor can now. We can debate about where his development can eventually lead, but he sure is not where we need him to be right now. If I'm Whaley I'm looking to improve the position in the offseason and let Taylor compete with whomever I can bring in. Maybe it'll come with time together and in the system, but the preparation of the two teams was very far apart last night. The Bills did not kill themselves with penalties, but they repeatedly looked disorganized. That's on the coaches. The Patriots never lost their composure and always seemed to know exactly what to do. Hell, Brady even knew the rule that stated the ball would be placed at the spot of the catch on the inadvertent whistle play. He started walking up the field mid explanation. That disparity was frustrating to watch.

No one is going to claim him with that option looming. He'll clear waivers, then see what the market bears. Wouldn't blame the Bills if they kicked the tires.

I only watched the first season, but I saw a blurb about this. Why do I think she is going to un-die at some point? I hate when shows/movies/books do that.

A tough 4 game stretch for the Stillers, but they are coming off a bye at a good time and they end with two easy games against a crippled Baltimore team and a Cleveland team that'll be looking to stay healthy for a relaxing offseason. If they can split the next 4 they are looking at 10-6 and a wildcard spot.

If they're going to have comp picks - and would seem they are - then simplify things and make them tradeable just like any other picks. It's probably better for the players overall. The main problem I've had with comp picks is that they typically give extra low round picks to teams that already draft well, even if they lost some talent to get the extra pick(s). The net result is often to add extra developmental players to a team without much room for them. Making comp picks tradeable might help alleviate this in some small, marginal way. I'd rather that they didn't exist at all, but I don't have any problem making them tradeable if they do.

Any word on how the colorblind folk are doing on this one?

Those are all fair points. I like what they're trying to do, but their execution is terrible.

Not in this case, but they absolutely are in other ways. The rule changes and consequent number of defensive PI and holding penalties are definitely hurting the game. Then there's the talk of the league looking to add more teams, add more regular season games and allow more teams to make the playoffs. Individually those are bad ideas, but collectively they would would really damage the product even if they'd add revenue in the short term.

Growing a business isn't greedy, but over growing it to its detriment is. The NFL hasn't gotten to that point yet, but lately I think it's been flirting with going too far.

I was talking about the agent for Cousins, not TT. As is yours. Just different appetites for risk in this case. Here's hoping your path is the smart one.

So sorry for your loss, Doug. Condolences to the whole Flutie family.

Extending him early will cost us too - and sooner. Plus we might not even see a good return on that if he flames out/fails to live up to his deal. No, I'll wait and pay him fair market if he hits. That's fine. Our choices are: - Wait and possibly pay more, which will be market value - Pay him above his market early in hopes that we will get a deal and save some money, but also take the chance we might be overpaying him substantially I really do see your point, but I haven't seen enough and there is time. I wait and see what Taylor does. And here's the reason: What he hasn't proven he can do is the toughest part of being a quarterback. I really hope he makes it, but I'm skeptical.

I disagree with a lot of this. Start with your leadership comment. Why is he considered a great leader right now? I'm not saying that he is or that he isn't, just that there's precious little evidence either way right now. As for aspects of his game that are below average I'd say that his issues going through his progressions and reading defenses is a place where he is below average right now. Plus, as you noted, his height is below the generally accepted minimum (6'1" vs. 6'2"). Big arm? Yup. Can make all of the throws? Yup. Mobile? Yup again. But I want to address your comment that the Bills current offense is not built to take full advantage of TT's mobility. I couldn't disagree more. It is relied on too much, if anything. This isn't JT Barrett at Ohio State. TT is listed at 6'1", 215#. If he was better at his progressions - like he needs to be - they'd run him less because of how dangerous it is from a potential injury perspective. At that size it will be difficult for him to last if he continues to take hits. Notably, he has been doing a better job of sliding and otherwise avoiding hits since he's been back from injury. I don't mean to be overly critical of him, but he has important aspects of his game that he needs to improve upon. The Bills need to see at least some improvement in some of those areas before they commit big money to him.

Agree with this totally. He's played 7 games, people.

That's true. But I don't take that chance yet. He's got 7 games under his belt and even if he finishes the season healthy that's only 14 total, plus playoffs potentially. And that's really the only place he could really change my mind by this offseason - by lighting it up in the playoffs. Then I'd be on board. But there is also his side to consider. I definitely think he'd jump at a mid-tier (or below) contract this offseason, but you never know. Maybe he's a gambler and thinks he can make the really big bucks. Or say he does take a mid-tier deal and then lights it up for another year or two. Why wouldn't he ask for a new deal early if he thinks he has earned it?

I agree that it's tricky with QBs in particular, but there is no way that I jump the gun with Taylor. I see what he does the rest of this year and probably next. He's certainly does not have a large body of work, nor has he proven enough on the field to justify even a second tier deal. I hope he does earn that here, but he still has a lot to do before he does.

Most of the gripes about modeling like 538's are from people who expect some nerd to be able to plug in a bunch of numbers and tell the future. If that doesn't happen they decry their work as bogus and completely write it off. It's just odds and expectations and only gets as specific as the model and available information allow. Plus modeling things with a lot of inherent variance - like football - is only ever going to be so accurate. It's a nice tool, not a be-all-end-all.

You know what's worse than paying Cousins that contract? Losing him. It'd be pretty fair in that the team could cut ties quickly and easily if they had to, but Cousins would still get paid for what he's accomplished. If he blossoms then he wouldn't have to wait long to get a new deal at an increased rate. If not, then there's no long term commitment and no lasting cap damage to the team.

That's certainly possible, even according to 538's model. But that model has KC (ELO of 1588) as a significantly better team than Oakland (1428) and thus gives KC a much better chance of finishing with the better record since they play twice and have similar schedules. Incidentally Buffalo's ELO is 1530, which is a lot better than Oakland but not quite as good as KC. If the Bills win they will improve their rating and odds. If they lose, it'll go the other direction. In that way I really like models like this because they force teams to earn respect. Emotion is minimized even if there is a lot of variance.

You can see how this model is tracking if you look at not only KC and Buffalo, but also Oakland: KC: 4-5, 56% chance to make playoffs Buffalo: 5-4, 35% Oakland: 4-5, 7% The model is simply saying that the Bills have a tougher schedule (which they obviously do) and that currently KC is a much better team than Oakland, whom they still have to play twice. Things can change - injuries, development of players, hot streaks, etc. - but it's difficult to argue with those expectations today.

Agreed. I don't think it's a coincidence that these numbers are being floated out there right after his recent quality performances, including the Saints game. He's got a smart agent. Yes. Here is a link: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/

Lol. Honestly, the ONLY reason to pick up Brandon Weedon is to get inside info on how to defend the Dallas offense. He should never step onto a football field again for any NFL team.

Actually it'd be unusual for a statistical model like this to NOT have "bad" weeks like this. Here's a simple example: Flip a regular coin 100 times. A result of 50 heads and 50 tails is the statistical average, but it's a very unlikely result. No one who gets 36 heads and 64 tails is going to think it's a "bad" result. Statistically it would make perfect sense. The above example is for a situation with precisely known odds that don't change over the course of the event. The models for football games use odds that are much less presciently known and, as noted already, those odds change during the game and season. Those changes are incorporated into the models as the season goes on. You have to understand what a model is really telling you. For instance, 538's preseason model of final records showed a narrow band of records, from about 5.5 wins to about 10.5 wins. That isn't to say that the model doesn't think there will be teams at 3-13 or 14-2. It just doesn't know which ones will. One projected with 10 wins has better odds of getting to 14-2 than one projected with 6 however. Their predictions aren't gospel, but they do shed light on things if used and considered properly.