BarleyNY

Sadly, I don't think that's a lock.

Yup. He's been here for 14 games. Fans can afford to have knee-jerk reactions, owners can't.

Agreed. No reason to get him injured for next season.

I was critical of the McCoy trade and new deal combo. It seemed a lot to give up for a player who was exceptional in another system, but was unproven in the Bills' system. But he has worked out well and that has changed my mind. We didn't get a bargain, but we are getting fair value with him. Here is the breakdown. He's: - the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL - 8th ranked RB in combined rushing and receiving - 8th in rushing - 6th in rushing yards/game That's not out of whack. The Bills have problems, but he isn't one of them.

So no front office ever makes mistakes? 16 straight years of no playoffs and you're assumption to an apparent problem is to assume the FO has everything covered? interesting way to go. I'll stick with what I see because the best way for an NFL team to dig themselves out of a tight cap situation is to draft well and I have little confidence in that.

They've got cap issues, that's for sure. Whether or not they're "serious" depends on your definition. The light might not be blinking red, but it's bright yellow. They've got some real talent they are in very real danger of losing due to their cap situation - Glenn, Incognito, Rambo, etc. It's a manageable situation, but they've got to make real choices now. No more signing everyone they can and the strategy of overpaying for players like Clay is likely off the table.

Every single measurable statistic? Nope. Passing yards - 25th Completions % - 16th TDs - 17th Attempts - 28th Yards/game - 29th You don't help his cause - or your own credibility - when you post ridiculous stuff like that. FWIW, I thought Taylor played admirably today. He showed a lot of heart. But he had issues today (and in some other games) with too many pass plays that wound up with him scrambling as well as some unnecessarily poor throws.

Schwartz on the Browns appears to want out. He's a solid RT that wouldn't be that expensive.

He was awful (again). Sometimes you can't tell what a player's responsibility is on a play, but sometimes it's obvious. He repeatedly was out of position due to over-pursuing or filling the wrong gap. Find a legit MLB and let him compete for a role on the outside.

No idea. Certainly could be a suspension.

Yeah, I totally agree with the part about Whaley being a goner if the report is true. I'm not sure how much of a bad thing it'd be though. I've found his work to be very uneven and average at best overall. I don't know enough about potential GMs to give an opinion on them yet, but being able to work well with Rex and find the kinds of players needed by the current schemes is paramount. The Roman and Watkins discussions don't bode well for Whaley. He's on the defensive about his moves. Watkins shouldn't be held to the standard of what the Bills gave up for him. Once a guy is on the team that shouldn't matter. But the GM absolutely should have to answer for it. His successes have come at very big costs. Wakins is a fine player, but at the cost of an elite one. Clay is a very good all-around TE, but he's got a top 5 TE deal. Shady is the biggest success as he is an elite back. The combination of his sizable new contract and trading Kiko equates to a very fair amount of compensation. The other big issue is Taylor, who is certainly a success - but that was all Rex. Whaley's contributions at QB look very unfavorable compared to what Rex did (whether or not Taylor is a long term answer).

Two Onio State football national championships. That's the whole list.

The OL and WR situations scare me far worse than anything on defense. If Glenn and Cogs walk that OL is a trainwreck. Watkins needs a threat opposite him to be effective so finding one is a huge priority. A lesser need, but a need nonetheless, is a quality slot WR. We really don't have a threat there.I'll wait to see what moves are made pre-free agency before I fully address the defense. Obviously the LB corps need some help, DBs could use some depth (and more if McKelvin is let go) and the DL will need to adequately replace anyone traded or released. Yeah, and probably a kicker.

Overall, the Jets. Better DL (though both are quite good), better OL (by a wide margin), better corners. Bills are much better at TE and marginally better at RB. WR corps goes to,Jets. At QB the Jets have Fitz, who is a vet who limited physically but understands the game. He's the guy that gets brought in to bridge the gap while a long term starter is found and brought up to speed. I have no idea if Petty is that guy or not, but Geno is horrible so it's Petty or the search continues. The Bills have Taylor, EJ and Johnson - so effectively they have Taylor. He's shown he can be effective in a system that limits his role as a passer, but he's not a complete QB (yet?) and hasn't fared nearly as well when asked to do more. So the Jets have a journeyman who they they can't win it all with and an unknown commodity at developmental QB (which usually don't work out). The Bills have a QB who currently isn't good enough to win it all with, but still has a chance to develop into a better QB who can (although that's rare). I give the QB edge to the Bills, but not by any wide margin as neither likely has their franchise QB.

Watching an undefeated Panthers team beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl has a lot of appeal from a rubbing-it-in-their-face way.

Agreed. Right or wrong, it's incredibly stupid for a head coach to say something like that to the media.

I don't think there's any way Williams agrees to renegotiate a 5 year deal at $8M-$10M per year. His current deal is set to pay him $14.5M ($19.9M cap hit) in 2016 and $14.9M ($16.5M cap hit) in 2017. That's a hell of a pay cut for him. I'm sure he'd rather test the market. There's a big gap in his value in the Bills' scheme versus in a scheme where he's pass rushing more. That disparity might be what leads to him and the Bills parting ways.Contract details: http://overthecap.com/player/mario-williams/246

Yeah. I'd love to see Carson Palmer win it all. He got jobbed (as did the whole Bengals team) when von Oelhoffen kneecapped him in the playoffs during his best previous shot at winning it all. In fact, I think I'd be great to see him go up against the Bengals in the Super Bowl. That's obviously very unlikely with Dalton injured, but I'd still like Palmer and Arizona to make it.

Another poster mentioned the doubles in the KC game in another thread so I rewatched it. It's actually a big part of how my opinion formed. On all but one of Watkins' big first half plays the safety was late. Again, Watkins' speed was a big part of why. On the other play the safety was shielded by the CB and couldn't get around him. In the second half KC adjusted by shifting the safety over Watkins and playing the CB tight. That was when Watkins was done for the night. As for extrapolating Watkins's numbers, it might be simple and make you feel good about him but it isn't realistic. A lot would change if his targets doubled. Wear and tear over a game and the season are much different - and he's had issues at the current level. Defensive game planning would key on him more too, which is huge. But, as I said previously, I do think the Bills should get him more involved and target him more to see what he can do. Maybe he continues to improve; he's only in his second year. But maybe he doesn't so until he proves he can carry more of the offensive load with similar averages, he's not nearly in the same class as WRs like Beckham.

Seems like a lot of posters are sold on the assumption that the only things holding Watkins back are out of his control. QB play, play calling, coaching, targets, etc. I'm not sold. The picture of who he is is coming into focus and it's very good, but not as great as some here are espousing. He is excellent when against one on one coverage as few CBs can handle him alone. He has great body control and speed. But he does not have the elite ability to beat double coverage if he's the focus of it. I've seen him beat double coverage when the safety is late - and that's a nod to his speed - but if the safety is there in time, Watkins isn't making a play. That is my concern with him getting more targets. More targets equals more attention from defenses and that takes him out of the game with double coverages. What I'd like to see the Bills do is find another WR who is a deep threat and also requires double coverage.* Watkins' stats would explode. Then they need to find a shifty slot receiver to open the middle of the field for Clay, too. Those two additions along with the OL are my offensive priorities if I'm Whaley. *I know Harvin was supposed to be that guy this season. The fact that Whaley and Rex took such a big risk with a problem player like him points to the importance they place on having another deep threat.

Never mind. I figured it out. It was under MY profile, not his.

Just wondering how one might put a poster on "ignore". Can someone tell me where to find that feature?

Mario only has two years left on his deal. Pushing cap space from his salary and roster bonus from 2016 into 2017 hardly makes sense as his hit in 2017 would be gigantic. He could be extended so that could be spread out, but creating some substantial space in that way will make it very tough to cut ties anytime soon. That nixes that option. Or he could be asked to take a cut in pay, but I think he'd rather move on than do that. Realistic options are very limited and a restructure isn't one of them. Traded before his roster bonus is due, released by not paying that bonus or kept at his current contract are about all there is to chose from. I see what the trade market bears and go from there (and that assumes that his contract doesn't have a no trade clause).

I've grown to hate seeing the word "restructure". People mostly seem to use it for "This guy makes too much money and I don't know what to do about it, but I kinda want to keep him."

There are two reasons (other than injury) that would explain why Watkins and Beckham have similar percentages, but much different chances:1. Coaching/use - If he could be more productive with more opportunities and better scheme then it is all on the coaching staff. The compounding issue with underutilizing a player like Watkins is that his real potential value is higher than his value to the team. That can be trouble not only from a draft cost, but from a contract cost. What happens when his agent negotiates his first big contract if he's not fully utilized? His agent could reasonably estimate Watkins' market value assuming full utilization of his skills and the Bills could (also very reasonably) estimate his future value based on his actual past performance with the team. There'd be quite a gap to navigate and the result would be that Watkins would get a contract a lot closer to his agent's estimate than the Bills'. That contract might be from the Bills, who would be overpaying, or from another team. 2. Ability - It's definitely possible that Watkins isn't capable of carrying much more of the load than he already is due several factors - wearing down over the course of a game or a season, increased susceptibility to injury, inability to continue to make plays when drawing more focus from the defense, etc. Sometimes less is more with certain players. There's no way to know if Watkins can carry more of the load without asking him to do it. So what should be done is obvious. Beckham is a much more valuable WR than Watkins because he's proven what he can do and how much of an offensive load he can carry. With Watkins it is a projection based on him being a much smaller part of his offense. The Bills need to find out what they have in Watkins before they have to negotiate his next contract and there's less time for that than one might think. I'd want to see two years of high production and he's already two years into his 4 (5 if option is picked up) year deal. Push him. See what he can (and can't) do. Go from there with an informed opinion.