BarleyNY

How has McKelvin not made a worst list yet? How is that possible?

This Sunday is their last real chance to screw that up. The Oiltans are very unlikely to win again. Ditto the Cowbois. They should've waited another week.

I didn't take this topic as being directed at Clay. It's not his fault someone offered him that contract and I'm sure not blaming him for signing it. But to your point, why give a guy who's not going to be used that much a contract like that? I want to clarify some things since it's easy to look at this in black and white instead of grey. It's also easy to miss some important details: Clay is overpaid, but not horrifically so if the whole contract is looked at from an average yearly cap hit. And to be fair it's early in his time with the Bills so things can change/improve. His contract has much more glaring issues than the average yearly cap hit, though. It's heavily guaranteed and it pays out heavily early on. That is trouble in the making. If he performs well he almost certainly will be looking for a new deal when his yearly salary shrinks Below his level of production. That will inflate his yearly salary average. Or ifhe performs poorly, he will only make it through the early portion of his deal where he is paid disproportionately well and wind up way overpaid with a much higher yearly average salary than it would appear. Lastly, the worst case is if he has a catastrophic injury or off the field incident that effectively ends his career. The Bills are on the hook for a lot of money early in the deal so they'd take a big hit. http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675/ Contract details for reference. $24.5M over the first two seasons, all guaranteed. Then $13.5M over the last 3 years. $38M total. I know it was structured this way because the Dolphins had him tagged, but it's still weird deal.

Not at all. The tag certainly had an effect on his price, but that is not material. The price and his value are all that matter. The intradivision argument is terrible. He was on the freaking Dolphins. The argument could be made if the Bills were neck and neck with a team at the top of the division and we took a top playmaker from them, but that wasn't the case. We took him from a mediocre Dolphins team that is making a habit of way overpaying for players. With or without Clay, the Phins aren't a team that a good team should worry about.

Nice work, Gunner. I've been piecing this together and can confirm about 2/3rds of your work. I hadn't gotten to the rest. I wish I would have seen this sooner.

Houston/Indy are obviously in the mix, but the Bills have the h2h on both and they play each other in two weeks. I just don't see a WC team coming out of the AFCS. The Bills have plenty to do and plenty to worry about, but AFCS teams aren't on the first pages of those lists.

I modifyied my post to include this situation after I read your previous one. Yes, the Bills would pull ahead in the Conf tiebreaker if they go 3-1, including beating the Jets, and Pitt goes 2-2. Edit: I'm not worrying about common opponents yet. In the WC tiebreaker it is applicable only after the division record tiebreaker.

The Steelers finish with the Bengals, Broncos, Ravens and Browns. Two tough games - including at the Bengals on a short week - and two easy ones. We should know if the Bills have a shot to pass them by the 20th. If they go 3-1 their Conf record will be the same as the Bills if the Bills win out. The Bills would pull ahead in that tiebreaker if the Steelers go 2-2 and the Bills 3-1 including a win over the Jets. No h2h obviously.

The Jets have a tougher road with the Titians, Cowbois, Pats and Bills. Obviously if the Bills win out they'd have no worse than the same record and same conf record. They'd obviously also have the h2h tiebreaker.

KC is pretty much in. Their schedule is about as easy as it gets: Chargers, Ravens, Browns and Raiders. I can't realistically imagine them going worse than 3-1 over that stretch, They will have the head-to-he and and conference tiebreakers over the Bills.

Here's what went down a year and a half ago: McDaniels was Mike Lombardi's choice for Browns HC to the point where he was told that interviews were a formality. Haslam was just getting wise to who Lombardi is and decided to make his own decision. He nixed the McDaniels hire, fired Lombardi (GM) and Banner (Pres), retained Farmer and hired Pettine. Lombardi now works for the Patriots and has sniped at the Browns through intermediaries pretty much constantly since his dismissal. There is no way Haslam is considering McDaniels. This is just Lombardi stirring the pot again. Lmao. That's hilarious.

I know what the situation was. Don't confuse the price Bills paid with what the minimum cost would have been or what Clay's true value was/is.

Clay is a good, multifaceted TE that the Bills somewhat overpaid for. It is what it is. Happy to see that he didn't hang his head after the big drop. He stepped up. It sure isn't the worst situation in the world. I truly hate this rationalization. In cases where your options are to either overpay for a guy or not get him, most of the time you have to say no. If you run your team that way you wind up being the Redskins.

I'm on delay and just finished the 1st qtr. Nice job by Bills overall thus far. Solomon Wilcox is effing unbearable though. He's beyond bad. Nice run for TD by Taylor! Hope things are still good in real time.

When given the choice it's the rare coache that wouldn't pick the team with the best QB situation.

Very nice thing to do, BNiH. I hope the giveaway goes well and that you and yours are doing well too.

There was a fake Chris Mortensen account that started the rumor. But I'll play "what if?" If Haslam thinks that Cleveland fans hate him now, luring Meyer from tOSU and taking away the only football joy they have might put them over the edge.

To be fair, Fred Trump was the self-made man who became a billionaire. Donald is just his arrogant son who acts like he did more than win the offspring lottery. Oh, crap! That might be a better analogy than I thought!

Yup. Consider what that would look like if Taylor doesn't make the right reads quickly enough. If I thought he could do it well, then I'd be all for it. Execute such an offense poorly and the game could be out of hand quickly. The Bills will need to mix it up to keep a defense like Houston's on their heels. Look for them to run the whole playbook because if they get in a rut it'll look like the second half of the KC game.

That's a quality list. I have a few thoughts: If Peyton Manning retires and directly heads to a team's FO in any capacity (even as a part time consultant) look for him to make a big push to bring Gase there. I'm sure Haslam will make a push for him (they know each other well through the Tennessee Vols program). I don't know that he wants to be a part of that dumpster fire though. The Oiltans are another spot he might eventually land. Sean Payton might be a bit tainted at this point. While he has quite the offensive mind, the issues in NO are bad. Not only has he had scandals, but much worse, his team has collapsed under him. And I wouldn't consider any HC candidate that would hire Rob Ryan. Brian Kelly has been a quality coach for a long time. If he lands with a team that has a good structure he should do well in the NFL. Likewise David Shaw. In fact he probably tops my list. I've heard a friend in the scouting world refer to him as "a true leader of men". I don't know that either get pried away from their current gigs, especially Shaw. His situation at Stanford is just a tremendous fit for him.

Pretty much what I've been saying. Except I don't stop looking for an upgrade or quality competition for him.

You'd think that the focus on Watkins would have helped the rest of the receiving corps. When Watkins has two on him, then other players - especially highly paid players like Clay - need to make plays. 5 for 31 isn't getting it done. Neither is Hogan's 3 for 34. Those were the two most productive ball catchers after Watkins. That was frustrating.

No wishing here. Just trying to be realistic about the situation. Obviously losing Mario would leave a very big hole to fill. I don't think doubling down on him at this point in his career is the answer though. He may very well be on the team next season, but I think a new contract would be a mistake.

That seemed a legitimate point so I rewatched the KC highlights. There wasn't dedicated double coverage on Watkins on a single one of his big plays. The safety was in zone on all of them and was late on help on all but the catch with 3:30 left in the half when he was shielded by the KC CB. Watkins' speed is sure a factor in that coverage being late and he made some very, very nice plays. But once the safety was rolled to his side - and thus in position on time - Watkins was taken out of the game. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000590657/Bills-vs-Chiefs-highlights

You get your QB whenever, however you can. The only exception is when you have a reasonably young, proven franchise QB entrenched on your roster. In that case if one falls in your lap, you either still take him or you ransom him off.