BarleyNY

A big change in how the defense is schemed is really the only chance for a big improvement on that side of the ball. I'm not optimistic of it happening, especially with the hiring of Rob Ryan, but I'm still hoping it does.

There was certainly reason to think the Bills would be above average and make the playoffs, but there was a lot of over the top exuberance as well. A lot of that was fueled by Rex and his nature. But some of us were more realistic even if not totally correct about the situation. I thought the defense would be a lot better than they were and I thought Rex would be a better coach than he was. I didn't think Tyrod would be as good as he was. Overall I thought the Bills would get 9 or 10 wins and potentially get a wildcard, but I didn't think they'd have any realistic chance to do much once in the playoffs. I didn't get too excited because I only see two reasons for that - a team with a shot at a championship or a team executing a plan to develop into a contender (which I wanted to see some proof of happening before jumping on the bandwagon). I'm not excited now because they currently aren't the former and I am going to need to see a dramatic chance in Rex's performance before I think the latter might be the case.

That's what the Browns have offered - and what SF would accept. The hold up is on reworking Kaep's contract. He's not budging much and the Browns are wary of guaranteeing that kind of money to a guy who not only has been having some down seasons, but also is coming off 3 surgeries. He can't even pass a physical currently. I think the Browns should pass.

Quality coaches match their scheme to the talent they have. Remember, a coach's main job is to get the most out of their players individually and collectively. I despise the strategy of retooling an offense or defense to fit scheme - and Rex and the Bills defense is a pretty extreme case. It would be one thing to see Rex retool a poor defensive unit, but that isn't the case here at all. The Bills had a defense that was truly excelling until he forced his scheme on them last season. It was a poor fit to personnel, but instead of changing the scheme he has decided to change personnel. Watching that defense get dismantled is a travesty and it wouldn't be necessary if Rex was a better coach.

Great post. Hogan may indeed do very well in NE's offense and he may be worth $4M/yr to them. His production in the Bills' offense can easily be replaced with a better fit to the scheme though. A lesser version of the Mario situation - if you can't or won't take advantage of what a player does best then he's not worth much to your team.

That's just economics. Differencemakers will always get the discretionary dollars. The only ways to spread out money is to raise minimum salaries/benefits and/or cap the top salaries. Vets who make more than incoming players generally get squeezed out, but the NFL does discount the cap hits from vet minimum salaries to help this situation. Free agency definitely helps the market's process, but it'd be happening anyway. It is difficult to argue the impact of the elimination of free agency unless you know the system that would replace it. If you simply say that players can't change teams without a trade (or release) but teams are still bound by minimum spending then you might actually see more money flow to the highest performers and less to midlevel players. I'd argue that free agency actually causes money to be spread out to a greater degree simply because some moderate talents get much bigger deals than the market would indicate they should. We've seen a lot of that this week.

Free agency sure helps teams fill in holes on their rosters, so yes, it definitely helps balance the league. But it is more of a way of making sure all teams can at least be decent by getting competent players at positions of need rather than a path for teams to reach greatness by acquiring differencemakers. The former happens every year with virtually every team while the latter happens very, very rarely.

Oh, good. A thread about the Bills' cap situation.

Nice work. Those deals are nicely thought out and they'll be about what it'll probably take to get them done. I am still hoping for a bit of a discount though. (Not to nitpick, but the dead money in the final years of those two deals looks off. Should be 6.5 and 7. Guessing it was a spreadsheet error.)

Yeah, he is.

Wow. Huge brain fart on my part. Previous post is deleted.

Yeah, Bills gave him an original round tender.

Lol. Gee, I wonder what's happening here?

Agree on Houston rolling the dice large - and I wonder if they weren't driving up his price bidding against themselves. It's probably bad for the Bills, but if he flames out it lends credence to the "stupid contract, outlier" argument.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stephon-gilmore/market-value/ I didn't see this posted. Apologies if it was. It's Spotrac's estimation of Gilmore's value, which they calculate to be about $13.5M per season with a total contract of 6 years, $81.4M. Their calculations were done prior to the recent signings and I don't know what, if any, effect they'd have. But, holy crap, that ballpark might be rough. They Bills really need to lock him up now (at a bit of a discount) if they want to keep him.

Holy crap! No wonder he wanted to hit free agency. Good God, that's a ridiculous contract for Osweiler.

Been beating that same drum myself. Due to the (over)spending on some players last offseason there is only so much that can be done. They got Incognito at a good rate so no complaints there. They pretty much had to tag Glenn so, again, no problem with that. But those two are just treading water and it'll be almost impossible to replace all of the talent lost this offseason (regardless of the misuse of that talent or that talent's lack of effort). The Bills are going to have to rely on drafting very, very well to improve.

Damn, Spotrac is quick.

It was an incomplete tweet. Wilson fixed it.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ About $7.2M in space. After Incognito's contract becomes official he should count about $3.1M against the cap in 2016. That will leave about $4.6M in space. Calculated as: $7.2M-$3.1M+$500k(Rule of 51 rolloff contract)=$4.6M Expect draft picks to cost about $2M net after Rule of 51 roll offs. Edited to add: Spotrac has contract details. Bills have $4.5M in cap room after RI's contract.

I thought it'd cost the Bills more early too. I expected closer to $11M in payouts over the first two years. He's sure worth that. RI gave a nice discount to the Bills.

That's more like it. Basically a two year deal for $9.125M total (when $500k roster bonus is included) That's a great deal for the Bills. Whaley did well here. $3.125M cap hit this year.

$11.5M??? I thought it was $15.75M. Perhaps Wilson did not get the full breakdown as the signing bonus is missing. Guaranteed money can be a combo of signing bonus and salary.

The Bills were 8-8 last season, the Phins were 6-10 and the difference was that the Bills beat them twice. In the two games this season I like the Bills' chances, but they aren't locks by any stretch. Coming off that 8-8 season, I am concerned with every team the Bills play.

Good for the Bills! This was an important - critical - re-signing. I do think the Bills may have gotten a modest discount, but we won't know until we see the structure. The big factor is guaranteed money, of course. That's the other aspect of a "discount" versus other teams' offers. We're the Bills more comfortable guaranteeing more money than other teams due to the current relationship? I don't know, but I'm happy it worked out as it did. The Bills really need him. Here was my estimate for a RI deal from 3/3/16. I overshot total value by $1.25M, but I'd expect the structure to be similar: "I was thinking something close to that. Bills in the $5M per and RI in the $6M per areas. What would you say to something like a 3 year deal with a $5M signing bonus, and salaries of $1M, $5M and $6M with only the first year salary guaranteed? The Bills could be out from under that in two years for $11M and the cap hit from the signing bonus would be spread over three years. First year cap hit would be $2.67M."