BarleyNY

I'd say there is a big difference between 9th in the NFL and 1st. 9th tells us that we have a strong running game, and that's good. We do. But each is just a sliver of information. Taken together 1st overall, 9th w/o TT's rushing tells me the QB is running a lot, maybe too much. Now let's dig a bit more. TT is 7th in passer rating and QBR, which is very good. But he was also 23rd in total passing yards and 24th in attempts, so he's not passing all that often. So we see who he was in 2015 - and who the Bills were. They ran the ball a lot. Both the RBs and QB did. The passing game was efficient, but was not as big a part of the offense as typical in the NFL. Lastly, the Bills were 13th in offensive yards per game and 12th in points per game. That's pretty good overall. The defense's rank of 19th in YPG and 15th in PPG was weaker. Just for fun I looked at the average of those rankings (12+13+19+15)/4=14.75. That's very close to the league average of 16.5 so the 8-8 record makes a lot of sense. I'd expect a team with that average ranking to finish with 8 or 9 wins.

I've been preaching the same. TT's propensity to run instead of completing his professions also limits the number of pass plays the OC can call. I looked at one random game and calculated that TT ran on 40% of his drop backs. I'll be keeping track in every game next season. That's just way too much (even if his season percentage is somewhat less). I understand that he is making positive plays instead of throwing incompletions, but he is also missing open receivers. Ultimately it is defeating. His dropbacks will always have to be limited and, with his size, he can't last continuing to play like that. He's going to have to force himself to stay in the pocket and get through his progressions if he's going to improve and there will be some growing pains if he does that. I'd much rather see him struggle early but grow rather than see what I saw last year.

The top rushing teams in the league are usually the ones with QBs who run a lot. Those running QBs inflate their team's rushing numbers quite a bit and that's certainly the case with the Bills. So don't put much stock in their team rushing rank.

Why do you think it's smart of Whaley to have so many players under contract at this time? Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's dumb or necessarily a bad move or anything. I just don't see any real advantage. As for Mario, if Rex isn't going anywhere anytime soon and he isn't going to utilize him properly then Whaley might as well release him. The individual defensive front seven players - as well as the the defense as a whole - had huge drop offs in 2016. If it was just Mario then I'd put the blame on him, but it was everyone. The problem was scheme. The Bills will lose a substantial amount of talent when Mario is released, even if they weren't bothering to utilize it.

The rule of 51 applies at this time. That means only the top 51 players on the roster count toward the total cap number.

That's certainly true, but with the money being spent on Clay and many other draft needs I don't see how the Bills acquire a complete TE the caliber of a Heath Miller. I was just trying to focus on what might be more attainable right now. I certainly wasn't clear about that.

I love complete TEs like Miller, but I'm not sure that's the best pairing with Clay. Clay is a do-everything-well kind of TE. Wasn't that the allure? He could create mismatches because he could do so many different things? The Bills would be better served to combine Clay with a flex TE who is a stud receiver. Even if that's all the other TE could do really well.

I'd be absolutely stunned. Let's look at the facts: - Mario isn't happy with his use in Rex's system and would rather be primarily rushing the QB. - Rex can get a much cheaper player to do what he wants (drop in coverage, maintain the edge, occasionally rush the QB). - The Bills need the cap space Mario's release would give them, badly. - Mario is due a $2.5M roster bonus in a few weeks. Barring a big change in defensive philosophy and a willingness to allow Mario to rush the passer the table is set for a very bad situation. Mario was clearly very frustrated last season. He sure looked like he was phoning it in at times in the last game or two. He had already heard the rumors of his imminent release. It isn't a good situation now and I s there any reason to think that there won't be worse problems if he's kept for 2016? Since Rex and his defensive philosophy aren't going anywhere in 2016, Mario is.

Yes, they are. I was like "WTF? MIKE FREAKING ADAMS IS LISTED NUMBER ONE FOR LEFT TACK......oh, it's alphabetical."

Mario is one season removed from a different scheme and 14.5 sacks. He had 13 the year prior and 10.5 the year before that. Players get old and lose a step, but that hasn't happened to Mario yet. Some team will pay him and, if they use him properly, he'll get double digit sacks again next season. Some of the fans are blaming Mario because it is convenient. He's hilly paid and on the way out which makes him an easy target for blame. But the whole defense went from top 5 in most categories to bottom third of the league in most. None of the front seven had the stats they did the previous year. Hughes went from 10 to 5 sacks. Did he lose a step? That is on Rex and his staff, not the players.

God bless you! You've saved the thread!

I agree on both counts. He definitely will not be the highest paid LT whether or not he hits FA and the Bills are unlikely to be able to compete financially if he does hit free agency. Some team will get stupid. Not highest paid LT in NFL stupid, but stupid.

Agreed. I'd throw in the asinine deal we gave Clay and the $6M we pissed away on Harvin as well. Tagging Glenn and trying to work out a long term deal might be the best strategy.

Thanks for the info.

Agreed. It's difficult to skip the pissing matches and still catch the relevant posts. Also I'm going to have to respectfully demand a larger pic of your avatar.

Zero chance. He's due a $2.5M roster bonus well before the draft. I don't see a date for it, but it's usually in March right after the start of the league year. Plus he's got a $500k workout bonus that might or might not be in play pre-draft. Then you have the issue of not having the cap space his release would free up until draft day - which means basically all of the free agents it could be spent on are gone. Also the odds that any potential trade partner would actually have enough cap space to acquire him on draft day is pretty slim. He will be off the team no later than the day his roster bonus is due. Incidentally, if the Bills don't pay that roster bonus he becomes a free agent immediately upon them missing the payment date. That only applies to any future guaranteed money (and even in those cases there are sometimes offsets). Mario has nothing guaranteed so the dead money and cap hit is exactly the same whether he's traded or released.

I won't repeat who others have said, but you don't pay a guy who is Kyle's age $6.5M on the off chance that he can convert from DT to DE.

Up front money, particularly the signing bonus, is usually the only guaranteed money a player gets and is a huge factor in negotiations. The upper echelon players have been getting more guarantees of late and Clay's contract is an extreme example of that. He got guaranteed money totaling $24.5M in the first two seasons and only $13.5M in non-guaranteed money in years 3-5. It was structured that way to make sure Miami wouldn't match, but it is not a smart contract structure and seems far in excess of what Miami would have matched. http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675/ The other reason for large signing bonuses is that teams can entice a player to sign by offering a large initial payout, but can defer the cap hit by prorating it over a number of years (up to 5). Most contract structures do have rising salaries as years go on. Usually a contract is structured with a relatively large signing bonus, but small base salaries in the first year or two. Then larger salaries that increase over the duration of the deal. Sometimes there is even a huge salary in the last season to either artificially inflate the overall size of the contract (agents like that) or to force a new contract (sort of a pre-negotiated tag without using a tag). Lastly, if a player is on his last deal sometimes the salaries will drop off at the end. That is rare, but it happens. It is a nice structure if a player wants to end his career with a team, but sees a drop off in play on the horizon.

It seems like you don't understand how the cap works - or you're already thinking about parting ways with Clay. The Clay contract was stupid, but eating the whole $10M roster bonus this offseason is point.ess unless you're looking at cutting him in the very near future. The Bills can take the full $10M hit this season or take $2.5M this season and defer $7.5M to future years when the hits would be a smaller percentage of the total cap. They can also roll that $7.5M in space they saved forward, which is exactly the same as if they don't defer it.

Since cap space can be carried forward this makes no sense. A restructure give the Bills more cap flexibility.

I totally agree. My worry is that Mario is only the first domino to fall and that we will see a big turnover in the front seven. There is a lot of talent in that group as well as a lot of money invested in them. It'd be a shame to see them wasted and dismantled because the coaches only know how to run a passive, 2 gap defense.

I'd like to clarify something here. I would rarely (almost never) want to see big free agent spending spree. I prefer to build through the draft and reasonably priced free agents to fill in the holes. What I'd refer to as salary cap hell is when a team's salary cap situation causes a huge purge of (decrease in) talent. That's why I've been referring to their situation as "salary cap heck". It won't be a huge purge of talent like New Orleans, but I see a decrease in overall talent even with a draft. The people they signed last year got them to an 8-8 record. I don't exactly see a big improvement in that record if they can't improve the talent on the team. The only other avenue for improvement is improved utilization of talent or improved health. I don't see a huge help from either and I'm not one to sit and hope they'll just get lucky.

Yes, it will add $7.5M in space for 2016. It's simply changing Clay's guaranteed $10M roster bonus to a signing bonus. Instead of taking the entire hit in 2016, it'll get spread out as $2.5M hits over four years (including 2016).

Thanks for posting. That was definitely worth reading.

Exactly.