BarleyNY

These statements show a total lack of understanding of cap fundamentals.

Yes, those would each be the dead cap if Clay was released in the corresponding year. The previous article was not clear about what those numbers were. Clays dead money would be: $18M if cut before the 2016 season or $13.5M if cut after the 2016 season and before the 2017 season or $9M if cut after the 2017 season and before the 2018 season or $4.5M if cut after the 2018 season and before the 2019 season. Some of the articles make it sound like the dead money is cumulative. The restructure doesn't make his contract any riskier. The Bills are just delaying $7.5M in cap hits instead of taking the $7.5M additional cap hit this season. Once the money is paid (or guaranteed) the risk is assumed.

Honestly, the "complete disregard to proper cap management" occurred when the original contract was given to Clay. The restructure takes a terrible contract and makes it slightly less terrible from a cap management standpoint. Also you have to consider the whole downstream picture of the cap. The Bills gain $7.5M in immediate cap space and that is now distributed over three years, 2017-2019, in $2.5M increments. That cap space can be used or carried forward. It'll probably get used because it is needed now, but it could be carried forward if the team chose to do that. That would cancel out the additional dead money. The tactic of the restructure is a good move. The player the Bills chose to give that kind of a contract to is the problem. http://overthecap.com/tag/buffalo-bills Here is a good article from OTC at the time of the Clay signing. On the new deal if Clay was released after 2017 the Bills would take a hit of $4.5M ($9M dead money - $4.5M 2018 salary). If they cut him after 2018 it would net to $0 ($4.5M-$4.5M). So expect him to be on the team through at least 2018 unless something major happens.

Here is the current structure: http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675 The $10M guaranteed roster bonus is being converted to a signing bonus. His previous cap hits from 2015-2019 were: $5M, $13.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M, 6.5M (total $38M) His new hits will be: $5M, $6M, $9M, $9M, $9M (total $38M) That assumes he plays out his deal. If he is released or traded prior to the end of the deal, then the dead money would be the total of whatever guaranteed earnings and future prorated roster bonuses were left. For instance, if he was cut between the 2017 and 2018 seasons: Previous structure cap hits: 2015 $5M, 2016 $13.5M, 2017 $6.5M, 2018 dead money $4M (total $29M) New structure cap hits: 2015 $5M, 2016 $6M, 2017 $9M, 2018 dead money $9M (total $29M) The potential dead money hit in a future year would suck, but it would be better to taking a big portion of that hit this year.

That article is misleading regarding dead money. Those aren't cumulative numbers. Clay's total compensation doesn't change with the restructure. Neither does his guaranteed money. The dead money is greater in later years only because the $10M guaranteed roster bonus that would all hit this year is being converted to a signing bonus and spread out over 4 years. In short, a future dead money cap hit would be larger because we aren't taking the hit this year.

No, it doesn't. And those numbers are wrong. The way the contract was previously structured Clay got a guaranteed roster bonus of $10M in March. The restructure converts that to a $10M signing bonus that will be spread out over 4 years. That's it. The dead money goes up in future years because they aren't taking the whole hit this year - but it doesn't go up to the numbers you state.

That makes no sense. The dead money if Clay is released (or traded) would be a cap hit THIS YEAR without the restructure. Oh, and it was guaranteed so the Bills would have to take the hit anyway. The only choice is whether to take it now or spread it out equally over 2016-2019. It was a stupid contract, yes. But the restructure only delays some of the cap hit, it doesn't create any new dead money. Oh, and as I said before - the future hits are a smaller percentage of the overall cap, by 8% per year (on average).

Gotta disagree with OTC here. It is a bad contract, but kicking some of the cap charges down the road only helps. Not only do the Bills need the space now, but the cap is going up an average of 8% a year. That means there is an 8% per year discount per year on every cap dollar moved into future years. Why not do that?

It's a terrible contract. The structure made a lot of sense technically, but it is stupid from an overpayment perspective.

Nothing funny about it. The deal was set up to be restructured. Whether or not the $10M cash payment is a roster or signing bonus is meaningless to Clay, but how it is allocated for a cap perspective is very different. It was nearly impossible for Miami to match that contract.

I don't like that one bit. It makes the most sense for them to wait and see if he improves this season. TT seemed fine with that, so why rock the boat? I don't like that this could become a distraction.

Two other players took their spots on the team, even if you want to argue that those players were at different positions. Incidentally, EJ does have a guaranteed salary but it also has offsets. If he is cut and signed by another team for the 2016 season, then his pay in 2016 will be deducted from what the Bills owe him.

Not really. Those releases did reduce the Bills cap by $4.5M, but they had to be replaced. Pick your replacements, but their releases saved more like $2.5M-$3.5M depending upon which players were on the roster in place of them. Keep this in mind with the release of Mario. That'll reduce the Bills cap number by $12.9M, but another player will automatically roll up into the Top 51 and their $525K salary will reduce that gain to $12.4M. Of course, if a player like Incognito is re-signed his immediate cap hit will be reduced by $525k as that aforementioned player player rolls back off.

Correct. Adjusted cap space is just the league base cap space plus carryover (and, rarely, plus or minus any other team specific modification such as the cap penalties Washington and Dallas got a few years back).

Yup. Need to clear some space for RFA and ERFA contracts, too. Those qualifying offers need to be submitted by 3/9. Hers a list of all Bills FAs: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/

Pretty decent breakdown, except it is incorrect about the June 1st designation. For cap purposes the contract is carried by the team as if the player is still on the roster until June 1st. They don't get immediate cap relief as the article states. No bonuses can be earned and there is no risk of the player being injured in team activities which would restrict the team from releasing the player.

Andy Dalton is ranked 6th on that list. Just let that sink in.

Colton was an excellent WR. He's just hit that expected drop off due to age. It happens to everyone and there's no shame in it. He might have a little more time left, but he'll have a reduced role and probably be expected to mentor. I don't see Buffalo as a great place for that kind of player at that stage in his career.

Those are all fair points. You never know if a player gets pushed up draft boards late for a BS reason like they tested well at the combine or for a legit reason like the media finally got caught on to what pro scouts already knew.

I got confused about when Hue Jackson went to Cleveland. Obviously that did not impact the Hue vs. Rex decision in Buffalo.

Actually, you're right. He was a late riser. He was a late round projection at the end of the college season, but he moved up to the 3rd-4th round post season. I do always worry about late risers.

Agreed. It's Miller's second season so he deserves a shot, but he should have legitimate competition and have to earn it. It'd be ridiculous to see him as the only realistic option at RG. RT needs a big improvement too. Last season the Bills only had three offensive linemen who should have been starting for an NFL team. Now two of them are set to become free agents if not extended in the coming weeks. That's scary. I don't need players, third round OGs for example, to come in and be world beaters right away. But they shouldn't be starting if they aren't ready. They should be learning and gaining playing time as they earn it. Furthermore, I'll say this on Miller. If you're going to draft a player projected as a late day three pick in the third round and then start that player immediately, then you'd better be right about him.

I'm not discounting Kirby's info. Perhaps Whaley preferred Hue Jackson, but Hue decided he preferred Cleveland. That doesn't tell me what Whaley thought of Rex. Or did I miss more info from Kirby? I would have LOVED a Jackson and Schwartz duo in Buffalo. That would have been a killer combo.

The ankle injury may very well have been a factor in Miller's dismal season, but I think it's fair to say that he's got to do much better in 2016 if he wants to stick. If he stays healthy and performs poorly again he will start looking like a guy who can't play in the league. If he gets dinged (or worse) again and it affects his performance he will get labeled as injury prone and unreliable. He's got 2016 to prove his worth, but I doubt he gets more than that if he doesn't.

Honest question: Is there any reliable information regarding Whaley's preferences for/against any of the HC candidates? Or are people just trying to read things into the situation? Obviously Rex was the Pegulas choice, but I have no idea what Whaley's thoughts were on him or any other candidate. I know the story about Rex telling saying he'd keep Schwartz and then flipping on that immediately after being hired. If true, Rex wouldn't be the first guy to tell someone what he wants to hear to get a job and Whaley could have fallen for the same line. It takes some big brass ones to do something like that so quickly, however. Of course, it also could have been a face saving measure for the Pegulas who had given Schwartz some assurances. Maybe the Pegulas intended to keep Schwartz, but then Rex became available and they thought he was worth losing Schwartz for. That kind of thing happens and that scenario makes a lot more sense. In any event, we are where we are and I think Whaley and Rex are going to live or die together here in Buffalo.