BarleyNY

I am copying this to the draft grades thread. Should have gone there initially.

http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-grades-class-rankings-2016-browns-bears-bengals Here is one analytics site that likes what the Bills did. While it ranks their draft as 11th best overall they put the Bills in a statistical tie for 2nd in terms of predicted added wins from this draft. They also have the Bills moving up to 9th overall as a team. That all seems reasonable. I liked the Bills draft very much from a need-filling perspective and I loved the Shaq pick even aside from need.

http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-grades-class-rankings-2016-browns-bears-bengals Here is one analytics site that likes what the Bills did. While it ranks their draft as 11th best overall they put the Bills in a statistical tie for 2nd in terms of predicted added wins from this draft. They also have the Bills moving up to 9th overall as a team. That all seems reasonable. I liked the Bills draft very much from a need-filling perspective and I loved the Shaq pick even aside from need.

The comment about a fully guaranteed $2.8M base salary is incorrect. His fully guaranteed salary is $1.6M. His cap hit is $2.8M. Lmao

I was thinking Denver might wind up a logical choice. They haven't seemed interested in Fitzy at all. Just wondering if he might not look a whole lot better to them after seeing the Sanchize for a few games. A lesser contract with a much better team than the Jest might interest Fitzy more as a shot at a ring may have real value to him. Lynch isn't anywhere close to getting on the field and their other option right now is Siemian. Dallas might be another option after the inevitable Romo Injury. I can't see Prescott being ready and they have nothing else. He will have options if he's patient. And why wouldn't he be patient at this point? The Jest can't even pay him what they're offering (much less what he wants) without roster moves and it's not like they have any other options either.

Yeah. But I was wondering if chasing a ring - or even having a playoff run - might be worth something to the guy. I keep coming back to this: Why accept a below market value deal with the Jest? Get your money or chase a ring. Who knows what QB goes down. Hell, by week 3 he might look damn good to Denver. They won a ring with a decrepit Peyton Manning and Brock Freaking Osweiler. You can't tell me Fitzy wouldn't have a chance.

What better options would there be?

LMFAO!

Dunno about that. What is to sctop him from waiting and seeing which other team loses their QB to injury? There'll be some desperate team with a shot at the playoffs that'll need him.

Can't believe he fell as far as he did. I was way off on that.

I did. It was light. Pick 19: 875 Pick 34: 560 Pick 67: 255 Total: 815 Could have asked for 101 which is valued at 96 points, but I'd have been looking for a premium with Lawson and Doctson on the board. I like Whaley's counter. If Jerry was serious he'd have at least negotiated. http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Dal

We are in agreement. I was just laughing at their plan, not your post. They've spent themselves into a position where they've got little choice but to sign Fitz or acquire another at least semi-capable QB for 2016. How would they be able to justify spending so much and winding up with a terrible record if they don't? Unless they're tanking Indy style for the top pick in 2017? Wow. That actually could be their plan. But why take Hack in the 2nd if it is?

LMAO at the thought of Hack starting in 2017! Seriously, the Jest need a plan that involves an actual NFL caliber QB. Geno and Petty aren't that and Hack is a longshot. Fitzy is as close as they are going to get right now - and he's just a stopgap. I don't blame them for not wanting to pony up for him, but what choice do they have? I only hope Taylor improves or the Bills might be in a similar spot a year from now.

Me too. That's not good value. You could have made a case that 34, 67 & 101 was worth 19, but I wouldn't have taken that either. Those are moves you make if you want to bail out of a pick. I see no reason why I'd prefer that package over Lawson. He was definitely a target for me at 19 and I did not think he had a great chance of making it there. But I agree with Whaley's counter of 34 and next year's 1st. Another Romo injury and that would be another high pick. Lynch isn't going to change that dynamic in year 1. If Jerry was serious he'd have either made the Whaley trade or countered with another offer. He didn't because he was just looking for a deal.

Actually I see the Jones pick as solidifying EJ's presence as #2 for 2016. Unless a vet QB is acquired that comes in and pushes EJ off that's the QB roster. I'm a Buckeye alum and watch pretty much every OSU game (stomps of very low level competition sometimes excepted). Jones was a good pick and has a ton of raw talent, but he's years (plural) away from anyone even considering putting him on the field in a meaningful NFL game. No way do I consider him a #2 in 2016. I agree with the last line though and I think that point is going to be right away - especially where WR and OL are concerned.

Short answer: No, Ray Lewis is not a good comparison for Ragland. Honestly, how many ILBers coming out in a draft get THAT comparison? There's a lot of tape of both making plays when unblocked because Bama's front kept Ragland clean just like Lewis' front kept him clean in Baltimore. I'd love to see a Ragland stack and shed highlight. It's relatively easy for an ILBer to make plays when his front is dominating. They are of similar size and build, but Lewis was faster. Ragland won't have the speed advantage Lewis did even when unblocked. Lewis had great instincts and it looks like Ragland does too, but Lewis' speed helped him evade blockers and beat them to the spot. I like Ragland's downhill ability both against the run and rushing the passer, but he's going to have to show he can play the pass or it's going to be tough for him to stay on the field in those situations. The jury is out on every pick until they have had time to develop on the field. Watching Ragland will be particularly interesting to me since he was a player I liked a lot less than most. In fact, I had convos with my dad and best friend regarding him before before Day 2 and he was the one player we disagreed about. They thought he'd be a great selection for the Browns at 32. I wasn't nearly as high on him for them or the Bills because of his speed, pass coverage issues and Wonderlic. His Wonderlic score and possibility that he'll have to come off the field in passing downs makes me wary of his ability to make defensive calls. It's always a bad idea to change your opinion of a player from the one you had prior to the draft to a new one after a draft. The only additional aspect that can be addressed is schematic fit. Ragland looks to fit well so I have no issues there. I know I am in the minority so I certainly could be wrong. If the Bills got a quality inside linebacker that plays the run very well, pass rushes very well and is adequate in coverage, then they made a great pick. If he turns out to be even a very good 2 down backer, then they didn't. That would not be good value at 41. We shall see.......

Jax and Cleveland both had great drafts. Voted Jax. Getting Ramsey and Jack out of one draft is ridiculous. Cleveland's haul of 14 players this draft (incl Dolphins CB Jamar Taylor) plus a 1st and 2nd in 2017 and a 2nd in 2018 is crazy too.

To the OP: I agree with all of your points, but I really didn't find any of them surprising. I liked the draft from both value and need perspectives, but there's only so much that can be accomplished in any single draft. The 2016 draft was never going to fix all of the team's woes, but I think it will fix some.

No kidding. The best part of that for them is they might get a great QB with the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft.

It's very difficult not to really like this draft. Seriously. VERY solid. And I am not a Kool Aid drinker. Really liked it.

Well, I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Problem is that he is athletic and looks like a pure LT for a zone scheme. He's not powerful at all so you're not getting much in the way of run blocking from him. Just not a fit here if the Bills are going to run a lot and with Glenn at LT.

Yeah. Got cash earnings from Spotrac. I'm sure he's got a minimum amount of money he will play for and it clearly isn't what the Jets are offering. $1M a year sure would support a pretty lavish lifestyle in my view. Maybe not as much for someone's who made his kind of money, but he's smart guy. He knows how to weigh the risks here. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/ryan-fitzpatrick/cash-earnings/

$39M in career earnings and a degree from Harvard. He's gonna be okay if he doesn't play again. This sort of situation is important with players that have made big money. Most won't play for anything but a premium contract after awhile. That's why so many are retiring when their play drops off. I remember Urlacher talking about it. He was diplomatic, but the gist was that he wasn't going to play for $2M. It just wasn't worth it to him after what he had already made.

I'm torn on Ragland. I see a player with a lot of risks and only a moderately high ceiling. He'd certainly fill a big need though.