BarleyNY

So many Moneyball banners went up in baseball that it's used to some degree by every team now. It looks like it just got to football, but I'd argue that what the Patriots have done for years looks a lot like what the Moneyball teams are doing now.

By some people's bitching you'd think the Bills had LOST draft value over the first two days. One of the reasons draft pick value is accumulated is so that a team can maneuver to get wanted players that have good value relative to where they are available. IOW, if a player falls a team that has extra draft capital can go get him.

We HOPE the top 3 picks are all starters. Not every player pans out and few step in and start out of the gate. CB has quite a learning curve. If White is starting at some point in the season and playing well by the end, then he's doing very well. Ditto Jones, as WR probably carries an even steeper learning curve than CB. If he's a productive starter by 2018, then he's doing well. If Dawkins starts at RT and is solid next season, then that's a huge win. If he can't hack RT and eventually is a quality starter at OG, replacing Incognito in a season or two, then it was still a good pick. Not that these players won't get thrown in early or that one can't be way ahead of the typical curve, but they'd be an exception. Expect some real struggles early if these guys have to start immediately. McD is playing the long game here. Reasonable expectations, people.

Agreed. Non-story. People forget these draftees are kids.

There are different ways to value draft picks. The Bills look to be using the Harvard methodology rather than the Jimmy Johnson chart. That's a sign. That would lead them toward clustering their picks where they did in this draft as well as favoring accumulating future high picks. Look at what Cleveland is doing. That's this method in full force. They're going to continue to roll one of their 1st round picks into a current year high pick and another future high pick. They already have two firsts and three seconds next season. Then there are the players chosen. Two are players that are high on the SPARQ scale and one was average on it. I'll find some links and put them in this thread. This explains the difference in draft pick valuation: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ Here is a link to the SPARQ scores and it has links to more general info on that valuation of players: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ol/

I feel shocked!

Having TWO quality LBs is important. That third one just needs to be serviceable. Nickel and Dime package use will likely be North of 70% this season.

Guessing they hope is that he will be capable of playing RT and he will compete there first. Moving him to backup OG to eventually replace Incognito is the secondary option if he can't. That's either great or good value in the 3rd round if he can do either.

To add to this: There are many charts, valuation methods and variants. The Jimmy Johnson and Harvard charts are two big ones. Most methods (but not all) discount future picks. The one round rule is often modified for the first two rounds by breaking the first round into 3 parts and the second into 2. For instance, a future pick expected to be a mid 1st would be discounted to a late 1st round pick's value.

High on SPARQ rating. 6th on WR list. Don't know much about him beyond that. Judging by the trade and first two picks, it sure looks like McD is down with analytics. https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/wr/

Genius is a bit much, but the Bills did very well for themselves last night. Quality trade and quality pick. Here's a good article that discusses the trades for QBs last night: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19261281/how-lure-low-cost-qb-caused-bears-chiefs-texans-trade-2017-nfl-draft

It's not a party without Pat! (You were close, its "sous vide") I've got my square foot there too!

Yes, we now have 156, 163 & 171.

Super deep and flat draft. Prospects that usually would be late first to second round picks will span from early first through the top of the fourth. Tons of players that are great fits in certain systems will have much higher value to some teams than others. Add in no slam dunk QB and it's a really fun mess. Teams that really did their homework will be able to work this draft.

Friends coming to my place. Going to be some great beer and food here.

Looks like McD will be driving the bus on this draft so I'm a lot less certain of how the Bills will play it. It'll be interesting. Anything goes as far as strategy and players/positions being targeted.

In-N-Out

And they paid a boatload for a bunch of long term contracts for broadcast rights to live games. They paid several times the going rate for their NFL games, for instance. But many people are cutting the cord now. ESPN carries the highest charge of any non-premium channel and their set of channels is a relatively large portion of the cable bill. Non-sports watchers are bailing on the cable and dish companies and are no longer subsidizing the sports watchers. That equates to less casual sports watching from the cord cutters which means less ad revenue from viewership. It's been snowballing for the last couple years.

Would love to see full game film of this kid. I've seen this highlight reel already and I'm very impressed. Based on JUST HIGHLIGHT footage I like him more than any other QB in this draft. I don't know what the rest of his film looks like though. I think we will see him go much higher than the 7th round/priority UDFA range that I've seen him projected. I'd be ecstatic if the Bills took him.

If Kraft owns 267k of stock in AGM, then that's about a $7M investment. If he wasn't on their board I'm not even sure that investment would register on his radar. That's what? One or two tenths of a percentage of his net worth? Then factor in that the casinos are a very small portion of APM's investment portfolio and there is (sadly) no story. Two side notes: I've heard of Apollo before and their private equity division is very well thought of. Too bad he got fired because the writer of that piece definitely belongs at the NY Post.

Personal emotions about the writer aside, the article is just a list of the safer prospects universally expected to be first round picks under the heading of players he expects to be good. No kidding, so does everyone else. There's no new information or actual work there. He doesn't even go out on a limb and project what a player will be, only a possible ceiling. I could've written that article in under an hour. It's just a rah-rah fluff piece.

I used to have to go to Valdosta for work. Here's a few things I remember: - Really nice people. - Office people kept asking me to tell the Darden Restaurant people to put an Olive Garden there. Always nice to have aspirations. - Two gates at the airport there. - Post 9/11 when the National Guard was briefly posted in all of the US airports I saw the lone, on-duty Guardsman at the Valdosta Airport fishing in the retention pond by the airport parking lot.

Wow. No kidding. I don't think I've ever seen a more upright runner. I'm sure it'll be fine in the NFL though.

Lombardi is a back-stabbing, self-aggrandizing tool. He has had horrific results when he's been in charge of drafts and personnel. He has made countless enemies by lying to and screwing over people. Don't read too much into this article. He's just parroting information that's generally available - and acting like he figured it all out himself. Please don't buy into his schtick.

That is a fantastic post. The point about TT opening up space for the RBs is a great one - and I sure hadn't noticed the degree of impact that it had.