Agreed. He obviously way overreacted to the situation, but the fact of the matter is that the woman attacked his head/face/neck area while his hands were in his pockets. The single punch he threw looked reactive, not premeditated or aggressive - and he didn't follow that with any further punches/kicks/etc. Still, he wasn't in any real danger and to fracture four bones in the woman's face was way, way, way past reasonable defense/reaction. That's definitely a real issue, but it's not the issue some are trying to portray.
Reasonably I think he goes late 3rd, early 4th. He has Steelers or Patriots comp pick written all over him.