BarleyNY

Or if you can apply logic.

There's a difference between saying that something is certain and that something looks bad. I'm saying the latter. If the Panthers had jumped the Bills twice in this draft for two players that we intended to draft right after those picks and then almost immediately hired our assistant GM to be their GM, you wouldn't think anything was fishy? You'd be cool with that?

Certainly looks like there might have been some inside ball there. We did jump them for a couple of picks. We'd all be livid if this situation was reversed. Hopefully we skate, but it doesn't not look great.

Things might get a little uncomfortable for the Bills initially if Beane, the assistant GM of the Panthers, is the new GM here. I noticed that the Bills jumped them twice for players in the draft. Hopefully nothing comes of that. But I do expect him to be the choice. As for Whaley, he was a mixed bag here, but I thought he should've been sent packing with Rex. The bottom line with him was that he gave us non-playoff teams at SB contender salary cap prices. Overall he had more poor moves than good ones, including some bush league mistakes. I certainly don't feel the least bit bad for him as he will be collecting way more money than he was worth for his time here.

I f*****g hate that.

I think that trust is waivering. He's heading into his 5th season and is 1-3 in playoff games. He needs to get over the hump. I'm not sure what other offers there were, but it's telling that 3 QB needy teams with new people in charge traded out of 2, 10 and 12 where these QBs were taken.

Crabman!

Or Reid is overpaying on a trade and reaching on a QB prospect because he's being pressured by ownership to get over the hump and really compete for a SB. Such pressure can cause individuals to take riskier chances than they otherwise would. In this kind of scenario a GM or HC takes a big gamble on a QB prospect with a high ceiling, but a relatively low chance of success. But it still gives them a chance to keep their job and that's better than the alternative which is building the roster and taking more reasonable risks with slightly lower chances of a payoff. What does it matter to that HM or HC if he gives up future picks? If it doesn't work, then he's out anyway and someone else has to deal with it.

Definitely a player I like and certainly worth taking a chance on at this point in the draft. Bonus!

That's the video he's going to send to players who ask for leniency after getting suspended.

https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/858136468207882241 I knew the man was a monster, but I didn't know he was completely soulless.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19261281/how-lure-low-cost-qb-caused-bears-chiefs-texans-trade-2017-nfl-draft The whole article is certainly worth reading and there is more on the Bills trade, but here's an excerpt: "The Chiefs sent the 27th and 91st overall picks in this year's draft to the Bills, but crucially, they were forced to throw in their 2018 first-round pick to seal the deal. That's an enormous haul for Buffalo. Given the Chiefs have consistently been a playoff contender under Andy Reid, let's be conservative and treat that future first-rounder like it's equivalent to the 24th selection in the draft. By the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, the Chiefs sent 1,556 points of draft capital to the Bills, which is somewhere between the sixth and seventh picks. By Chase Stuart's draft value chart, though, the 33.9 points Kansas City sent to Buffalo are closer to the value of the first overall pick (34.6 points)."

You can't read anything into where the three top QBs went for one very good reason - three QB needy teams traded out of the slots where they were picked. How high those QBs went was more a function of GMs and HCs under pressure to win now reaching for possible solutions for their QB problem. The 3 teams that traded back are SF (new HC and GM), CLE (second season of overhaul) and the Bills (new HC running the show). See a pattern? The Bears have a new group in place, but what they gave up to move one slot for Trubisky tells you all you need to know about their level of competency. The Bears are the new Browns. KC and HOU have pressure to step up into the playoffs and both are missing a high quality QB (although Smith is decent). They all reached and the more secure groups took advantage of their desperation.

So many Moneyball banners went up in baseball that it's used to some degree by every team now. It looks like it just got to football, but I'd argue that what the Patriots have done for years looks a lot like what the Moneyball teams are doing now.

By some people's bitching you'd think the Bills had LOST draft value over the first two days. One of the reasons draft pick value is accumulated is so that a team can maneuver to get wanted players that have good value relative to where they are available. IOW, if a player falls a team that has extra draft capital can go get him.

We HOPE the top 3 picks are all starters. Not every player pans out and few step in and start out of the gate. CB has quite a learning curve. If White is starting at some point in the season and playing well by the end, then he's doing very well. Ditto Jones, as WR probably carries an even steeper learning curve than CB. If he's a productive starter by 2018, then he's doing well. If Dawkins starts at RT and is solid next season, then that's a huge win. If he can't hack RT and eventually is a quality starter at OG, replacing Incognito in a season or two, then it was still a good pick. Not that these players won't get thrown in early or that one can't be way ahead of the typical curve, but they'd be an exception. Expect some real struggles early if these guys have to start immediately. McD is playing the long game here. Reasonable expectations, people.

Agreed. Non-story. People forget these draftees are kids.

There are different ways to value draft picks. The Bills look to be using the Harvard methodology rather than the Jimmy Johnson chart. That's a sign. That would lead them toward clustering their picks where they did in this draft as well as favoring accumulating future high picks. Look at what Cleveland is doing. That's this method in full force. They're going to continue to roll one of their 1st round picks into a current year high pick and another future high pick. They already have two firsts and three seconds next season. Then there are the players chosen. Two are players that are high on the SPARQ scale and one was average on it. I'll find some links and put them in this thread. This explains the difference in draft pick valuation: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ Here is a link to the SPARQ scores and it has links to more general info on that valuation of players: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ol/

I feel shocked!

Having TWO quality LBs is important. That third one just needs to be serviceable. Nickel and Dime package use will likely be North of 70% this season.

Guessing they hope is that he will be capable of playing RT and he will compete there first. Moving him to backup OG to eventually replace Incognito is the secondary option if he can't. That's either great or good value in the 3rd round if he can do either.

To add to this: There are many charts, valuation methods and variants. The Jimmy Johnson and Harvard charts are two big ones. Most methods (but not all) discount future picks. The one round rule is often modified for the first two rounds by breaking the first round into 3 parts and the second into 2. For instance, a future pick expected to be a mid 1st would be discounted to a late 1st round pick's value.

High on SPARQ rating. 6th on WR list. Don't know much about him beyond that. Judging by the trade and first two picks, it sure looks like McD is down with analytics. https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/wr/

Genius is a bit much, but the Bills did very well for themselves last night. Quality trade and quality pick. Here's a good article that discusses the trades for QBs last night: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19261281/how-lure-low-cost-qb-caused-bears-chiefs-texans-trade-2017-nfl-draft

It's not a party without Pat! (You were close, its "sous vide") I've got my square foot there too!