BarleyNY

BUT TYROD WAS BASICALLY A ROOKIE!!!

Just going to hit some points here: - DVOA is a much better gauge of performance than yards or points for offense and defense. You seem knowledgeable enough to know this but have chosen to pretend otherwise to try to make your point. - Whether or not it would’ve been a viable strategy to run Singletary a lot more against Cleveland’s stacked box is pretty irrelevant to the main point here. We can debate whether that would’ve worked all day, but thats not the issue. - The real issue is that doing so should not have been necessary. It’s that Allen could not beat simple, undisguised man coverage. This wasn’t Allen getting beaten by Belichick, it was him being beaten by a bad DC running a basic scheme that he’s seen since high school. And if it had been some bad reads here and there against a tougher scheme I wouldn’t have an issue. But he just couldn’t make the throws. I don’t see how that improves and I don’t want to waste another season watching it happen again. - Lastly, people keep saying he’s improving. I see a few areas where he has, but overall he is still poor and it’s about exactly as poor as last season. I’d guess that a big reason for that is that teams have learned how to play him. Let’s take a look. His Total QBR has dropped from 52.0 in ‘18 to 36.0 this season. His Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) went up from -35.9% to -23.0%. That’s still terrible for a starting QB. There have been 41 QBs this season that have performed better according to that statistic. So if he really is improving overall, it’s not by nearly enough. If he doesn’t make a big jump during the rest of this season I think the Bills should look for an upgrade. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019 I think that was true in the past, but that the rookie salary cap has made it easier to move on from high picks. Still, you might be right.

Don’t put words in my mouth. It really depends on the QB and the situation. It is fair to say that if, after two full seasons in the NFL and 20+ starts, a QB can’t effectively do rudimentary parts of his job and sits comfortably among back ups in his overall performance, I would look to replace him as starter. Do you disagree? That would hold true for any starter by the way. It’s better to move on from mistakes sooner rather than later. If Allen doesn’t improve this year, do you really think the light will go on in this offseason? Do you want to bet 2020 on that possibility? I sure don’t.

If I’m the Bills OC I’m begging the FO to get me a competent starting NFL QB next season. I’m not sure that Barkley can be any better than Allen, but I give him a shot if I do. If not, then I am calling a more conservative passing game, I’m running RPOs and hoping Allen can hang onto the ball and I’m running more even if it’s into stacked boxes. But that’s because I would’ve given up on Allen as a passer and as our QB beyond the very near term. But if you haven’t given up on him and you think he can be the guy for the Bills, then you have to let him take his lumps and try to work out how to be an NFL QB. That’s what the team is doing. As much as I don’t believe in Allen I understand that they haven’t given up on him and, therefore, that is what they’re doing. Allen hasn’t come around (yet?) and the team is tailing off from their encouraging start. That’s getting fans upset and a bunch of them are looking to blame everyone but they guy whose fault it is. But maybe, just maybe, he does come around and maybe there isn’t really a lot to lose by finding out. Let’s face it - if Allen doesn’t get more accurate and if he can’t beat man coverage, then he’s never going to be a starting caliber NFL QB. (This isn’t the toughest thing a QB will have to do.) If the Bills want to see if he can be “the guy” then they need to give him the chance like in Cleveland. If and when they’re done with him, then they can take the ball out of his hand and try to find a way to get through the season.

Browns are below average against both the pass and run. DVOA for passing defense ranks them 19th and their DVOA for rushing defense ranks them 22nd. Hardly a big difference. They were also stacking the box against the run. It’s good to know the real situation. I’d love my main point addressed. Why are people advocating running Singletary into a stacked box as the solution while leaving unaddressed Allen’s issues throwing against man coverage or man with a single high safety? Why is the former the issue and not the latter?

Singletary did about as well as any back in his situation, but the success he had was in getting tough yards after contact. I guess we could continue to run our 5’7” 200# RB into a stacked box all day rather than ask our 7th overall pick QB to beat man coverage, but I do see some problems there as well. One is that I’m pretty sure Singletary won’t last all that long doing that. I’d have done things like run some draws to him when the Browns finally backed off, but I’d have limited running him into 8+ defenders. Notably no other back had any success running the ball. The other, much bigger, issue is this: It means the Bills have given up on Allen. After the Washington game I really thought that was the case and the offense had been tailored to protect him, but I was wrong and the Cleveland game shows it. What’s more, the whole team will know it if their plan is to run into stacked boxes rather than put the ball in his hands - and that’s really the problem. They’d be better off making it official and starting Barkley. I was never a believer in Allen, but I’ve tried to give him a chance. Turns out that he’s the guy I (most people) thought he was coming out of college and he’s going to have to prove he’s more to get me to change my mind. I was done giving him a pass after game 8 this season.

Cleveland was in Cover 1 a ton. Single high safety with a stacked box. They didn’t even bother to disguise it. Singletary was not getting much against that. They dared Allen to beat them with one safety over the top and he couldn’t. What’s supposed to happen is that the offense is supposed to take advantage of the single coverage and beat the largely man coverage which then would force the defense to back off. They could not do that because Allen was not accurate enough often enough. I’ll give him this though - he was good against zone where receivers could find seams to sit down or slow their route. The problem was that the Browns mostly stayed with that base Cover 1 defense. Running Singletary into that defense would not have helped the Bills win this game. A further worry is that the Browns looked to be in regular zones. I didn’t see them use zone pattern matching like the better defenses do.

It’s funny. When we drafted Allen I said that if we want him to be successful we’re going to have to treat him like Duante Culpepper and find him a Moss and Carter to run under deep balls he chucks up for grabs. That’s absolutely a viable way to run an offense, but let’s not pretend that it wouldn’t be covering up a big QB deficiency with great WR talent. It’s also viable to find a QB who can throw accurately and beat man coverage somewhere other than short and over the middle.

Does anyone seriously think the problem with our offense is the TEs?

So you don’t think other teams adjust? When teams are getting beaten by the run they don’t stack the box and dare the Bills to beat them through the air? You aren’t seeing this? Heard this discussed on 550 yesterday afternoon. They said that the Bills were rushing for 3 YPC against 8 or more in the box against Cleveland. If you can’t trust your offense to be successful through the air when that happens, then your problem should be obvious. (Hint: It’s not that the OC should keep running the ball.)

The refs - and league - blew the call in the Vikings game. There is no reason for that. But I noticed that the shovel pass in the Washington game where Singletary went for 49 yards was counted as a completed pass and went toward passing yards.

Every QB does miss throws. Every QB makes other mistakes too. But they all do those things at different rates. I would refer you to Allen’s advanced stats that point to him missing throws and making other mistakes at much higher rates than a good starting NFL QB should be. And things like advanced stats are important to look at because we all see Allen make good plays too. He makes some excellent throws/plays every game. Those give fans hope, but consistency is the issue. When you compare the rate of good and bad plays, he is coming up very short. Just take a look at how he ranks - and note that he’d be behind more QBs if more had enough pass attempts to qualify (second table) but didn’t due to injury: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

I disagree. They are letting Allen play. They’re running the ball enough to consistently get 8 in the box and then asking him to make plays. He’s just not making enough despite having some favorable coverage situations. I don’t know how much more the coaching staff could be doing for him on gameday. I do agree that the huddle/no TO mistake is unacceptable. That needs worked out yesterday. I was at the game and haven’t rewatched it yet so I’ll double check what I think I saw, but Cleveland sure looked to be taking the run away and daring Allen to beat them.

I said it would be reasonable to save the TO, but I didn’t say anything about the huddle. It doesn’t look like that was on McD so I wasn’t holding it against him. It was definitely a mistake by Allen (or maybe Daboll) though. Going up to the line and running a play would’ve been fine too. That’s all I was saying. I should’ve been clearer on the last part. The TO would’ve given the Bills more ability to work the middle of the field. It could’ve also given them a chance to give the FG team more time to set up. Sure, they’re NFL players and they should be able to run out and go, but Hauschka hasn’t exactly been stellar this season. I was just thinking some extra time could’ve helped him.

That would’ve been reasonable, but it would’ve been their last TO. I can also understand why he’d want to preserve that TO for the FG attempt.

Yup. One game at a time.

I sure hope not. As for the OP, I agree. Nice breakdown. There’s a very good chance that whichever team wins that game gets a WC and the other stays home.

After attending the Browns game I think you are right. After the Washington game I think it was just wishful thinking on my part. Daboll went back to the usual offense. Also I checked the stats for other games. Washington was the aberration. I would like to see him call more games like that one, but there’s no indication that he’s tracking that way.

I dunno about that. 6-3 is good, but a 7-2 record might start to generate a little respect for the Bills.

I am just basing the scheming comment on my observations. This past game was certainly the most obvious example - and it’s one of only 3 games this season that I rewatched where I could pay attention. I do think the offense is skewing toward shorter passing and running (including Allen). I’ll watch to see if that is accurate. Reads aren’t Allen’s big issue, accuracy is. That is really what’s holding him back as a QB and that’s the main reason his advanced stats are so dismal. That has to improve or he will be what holds this team back.

I get why people voted yes with the thought that Allen is improving but still has a long way to go. However I voted no because I see much of his “improvement“ due to Daboll’s scheming/play calling to limit the more difficult throws. More screens, more shovel passes, more hooks and slants over the middle. I’d note also that I rewatched the Washington game and we had some really nice receptions on balls that were not well thrown. Advanced metrics try to control for drops, route depth, quality of defenses, etc., etc. Those metrics that I have been looking at - QBR, DYAR & DVOA - show a QB that’s about the same in 2019 as he was in 2018. And it’s not a flattering picture. I look at every throw and ask myself what kind of QB (elite, good, serviceable, back up) makes that throw. I expect every QB to be able to complete a shovel or screen. A 5 yard out or 8 yard hook over the middle is a step up from that, etc. I look at placement, difficulty of throw, etc. Does he lead his receiver into a hit or protect him? When I do that with Allen I see the QB the advanced metrics say he is. And I waited 8 games and formed my opinion before I looked at those stats. I also wanted to be sure before I got blasted on here. I also wanted to give Allen a chance to improve this season. I really wish I wasn’t peeing in everyone’s Cheerios, but I think the main differences between this season and last are what I mentioned before - Daboll dialing in the offense to protect Allen - and that we’re winning games. I think that Allen’s play is a big reason there’s limited enthusiasm for our success. (The other is the continued existence of the Cheatriots.) I’ve looked for reasons for optimism. One is that some of his bad throws that are behind his receivers are just a split second late, but to the correct spot. I saw that a couple of time last Sunday. He hit the window, but it was behind the receiver. With experience I think he can process faster and time those throws better. His footwork seems better in that he’s setting his feet properly unless he is scrambling (when it isn’t necessarily expected). That was a huge problem last year on short throws to his right, but it isn’t this year. I see our receiving corps making some great adjustments to throws and that’s helping the team immensely. They’ve covered up a lot and if they continue to do that then we are in much better shape. Lastly, Allen is still young and pretty raw. I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to dial in his howitzer and be as accurate as we need him to be, but he does have the athleticism to help us with his legs while we find out. Here is a link to those stats. Flame away. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

I think Daboll is doing a very nice job. He gets criticized for not opening up the offense, but he can’t yet. Right now he has it tailored to Allen. He’s running the ball a lot and giving Allen a lot of shorter throws while sprinkling in a few longer/more difficult ones. As Allen becomes more successful with those throws we will see the offense open up more. Daboll is just doing what he needs to do right now.

Allen is my biggest concern. We’re 6-2 despite having a QB who has been at the bottom of the pack statistically. He is either 30th or 33 (120 passes min) or 41st of 46 (10 passes min) players in DYAR and he’s 31st if 32 among qualified QBs in QBR. He’s only ahead of Mariota who has been benched and is right behind Trubisky who looks about to be benched. Daboll has focused on running the ball and has limited Allen’s throws. He’s schemed him a lot of short and intermediate-middle throws as well as throws like hooks where the WR stops. Allen has done pretty well on those. Deep and other more difficult throws have only been used a little to keep the defenses honest and haven’t been very effective. A lot of the offensive woes are related to how limited the offense is right now and that’s related to Allen’s current limitations. That’s what I see holding the Bills back against the better teams. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019 http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

true dat. For years and years people can discuss how we should have never won it

Frick. That’s right. My bad