BarleyNY

Allen did a very nice job today. Anyone who isn’t yet sold on him isn’t going to be swayed by a win over a terrible Miami team though. But they should acknowledge that he did what he needed to do to get the win today. That’s not nothing. Now let’s all (believers and non-believers Alike) hope he keeps it up. If he does, then he’ll change some minds.

Solid effort and nice win. We really needed this one. Now we gotta keep rolling as the opponents get tougher.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-thought-nfl-kickers-would-keep-getting-better-but-this-year-theyre-struggling/ “For decades, NFL placekickers have been on a seemingly never-ending quest for perfection. Conversion rates increased relentlessly each year like numbers on the National Debt Clock. But a funny thing happened on the road to forever. The field-goal success rate this season is at its lowest level since 2003. And the decline of 4.2 percentage points to 80.5 percent from 2018 to 2019 is the greatest year-to-year drop in efficiency since that from 1975 to 1976, dinosaur days when square-toed kickers still roamed.”

You might enjoy this analysis https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/amp/

I think those are two very different situations. One player is pissed because he sees the fine he got as excessive even though he acted in a way that he knew could lead to said fine. Whatevs. The other guy had his team (the Jest) falsify his medical documents in order to trick him into getting back on the field despite the fact that doing so would jeopardize his health and career. You can see the pull the NFL has with the media. That should’ve been a major story.

Yup. Honestly it’s smart to see who he is right now. Not so much to sign him, but to scout him. He could wind up somewhere and get in a game. Does anyone think BB wouldn’t want to know who’s lining up against him? Do your due diligence.

Draft picks have a lot to do with the salary cap. It’s idiotic to look at something like the salary cap in a vacuum, but you are welcome to do that if you want. It’s meaningless in that context, but knock yourself out. Meanwhile I’m here for reasonable discussions for those who are interested.

That’s weak af. Seriously this has gone off the rails. Those picks would be used on players that would be on 3 rookie deals and could replace veterans making veteran salaries. There’s actually a calculation for what picks are worth in cap dollars. Or maybe we could just consider the extra wins three more quality players could lead us to. Wow.

I am done here. This is just too dumb to even respond to and I only got halfway through it. Have a good night.

Absolutely not. Not ever. I have no desire to ever see the Bills win a Super Bowl.

Round 4, pick 105. Not really a high pick. The guy is an idiot, but that was a reasonable shot at a player with 1st round talent. Maybe the Bengals or Raiders will give him a shot.

Wow, there are some massive reaches in that post. It’s embarrassingly weak. I stopped taking your post seriously after you wrote that using picks 12, 53 & 56 wasn’t a huge investment. I didn’t bring up Jackson, but discounting whether he’d be successful or not here based on assuming that we wouldn’t tailor the offense to him is pathetic. And then you immediately discounted Rosen here. He looks like a total bust, but he’s been on the two worst teams of each of the last two years. Why isn’t that due to HIS situation? Why wouldn’t this have been a better situation for him? Again, for maybe the fourth or fifth time, Tyrod wasn’t the only other choice. I didn’t want to keep him around for $16M when the Browns were offering up the 65th pick. What about players like Kirk Cousins or even Case Keenum? Both were free agents and both have outplayed Allen by a wide margin. Cousins has been very, very good and Keenum has been decent.

Again, I’m not saying we should’ve stuck with Tyrod. My main point is that we spent picks 12, 53 & 56 on Allen (in addition to the $21M for 4 years). That is a huge investment and to ignore it and only look at salary is irresponsible (or intentionally misleading).

Thank you. Tyrod was significantly better than Allen during his time here (passer rating, QBR, DYAR) and I would not argue that he was good enough.

The Bills paid picks 12, 53 and 56 for Allen. Plus a fully guaranteed $21M contract over 4 years. That’s a lot. I am absolutely not saying that Tyrod should’ve been the answer, but don’t act like Allen didn’t cost a lot.

Oh, then you don’t mean dead money. I think you mean that players would be paid half of the remaining contract. Wow. I don’t see teams or players going for that. Teams wouldn’t want to be on the hook for more money to players no longer on their team and players would not want money that could go to current players being siphoned off to those that are out of the league.

You don’t understand what dead money is. It’s any money that’s already been paid, but hasn’t yet hit the cap (usually from prorated signing bonuses) plus any unpaid guaranteed money. I like an 18 week season with two byes. That’d probably help with keeping Thursday night games. Also I agree that a PF should override a non PF penalty. That’s about all I agree with. You're hosing the players pretty bad in general and effectively eliminating divisions. Some of what you mention isn’t even part of the CBA.

Miami isn’t talented, but they play hard and disciplined so a lot depends on which Fitz shows up. The Bills still should win, but Fitzmagic would make it very interesting. If Shitzpatrick takes the field, then I’d expect a blowout Bills win.

I had a long post recently that basically said that the Bills are doing this and that it’s the right thing. They have to see if Allen can be a quality QB or not. What they asked of him in the Cleveland game wasn’t all that much for a quality NFL QB. He didn’t deliver, but they should hold that course and find out if he can.

While it is true that DYAR, DVOA and QBR are not perfect, they do work very well to gauge how well a player (QB) is performing. They also make efforts to account for surrounding factors. I am not sure what your point in saying you don’t think coaches use them. Teams evaluate all of their players constantly. I doubt they’d need ESPN or Football Outsiders to evaluate their starting QB. They’d obviously have a finer point on that evaluation themselves, but I’d very seriously doubt that it’d be a lot different. So I think we can safely look at those metrics and understand that we have a pretty good idea of the job Allen is doing. As for Darnold and Mayfield, they are not Allen. Each needs looked at on their own. I haven’t watched enough of Darnold to form an informed opinion. I’ll say that I didn’t love him coming out of college and that his numbers suck in the NFL. They’re almost as bad as Allen’s. It certainly doesn’t look good. I’ve watched a lot more of Mayfield. He was pretty good last season, but he’s been nearly as bad as Allen this season. The numbers bear that out. So since he’s shown something I stick with him and try to get him better coaching. Dunno about that last part. I’d be happy to roll with Allen if he looked promising, but he’s failing with some pretty basic stuff. And it’s the same stuff he had problems with in college. Hell, it’s not just Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield from his draft class that are outperforming him. Gardner Freaking Minshew is a 6th round rookie who is. Oh and so is Kyler Murray. Allen has a year in the NFL on both of them. Bottom line: We drafted a QB who was known to have poor accuracy when he came out of college. He still looks to have the exact same issue after more than a season and a half in the NFL. Why do you think that will change with another year?

Wouldn’t it be on the QB to call a hot read in that circumstance? And why would the Browns definitely be going to blitz on a 3rd and 3? If anything they’d be thinking about jumping short routes on that down and distance. It’s certainly not optimal for a blitz.

https://www.footballperspective.com/is-espns-qbr-the-best-measure-of-quarterback-play/ Here is an analysis of ESPN’s QBR metric. The writer looked for correlation between QBR and winning and found that the correlation was +.68. For those not familiar with statistics the scale is -1 to 1 where -1 is perfectly negative correlation, 0 is uncorrelated and 1 is perfectly correlated. .68 shows a strong or “large” correlation. So rather than look at how many passes a team throws, you are much better off looking at how well each QB plays. In fact, nothing else that is unrelated could be remotely as telling. Obviously you can look at defensive performance in part by how it impacts the opposing QB’s performance as their measure. The running game, special teams and situational coaching decisions would also have impacts, but even collectively their impact wouldn’t add up to close to what the QB’s performance would except for how they impacted it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/amp/ This is a good analysis of why teams should pass more.

It’s fair to ask whether the guy you brought in is better than than they guy you got rid of. But Sullivan really just stirs the pot. Really not the time or place for that question.

It’s fair to think that the team is in a better place than they were under the previous regime. It’s also fair to tell this regime that maybe they want to shelve the cockiness about thinking their better than them until they prove it by winning something.