BarleyNY

I disagree. Allen certainly didn’t fall in his face last season, but he also has a long way to go. His running and ability to buy time when the pocket breaks down are definite pluses that few expected. But there are still questions about whether or not those are sustainable - especially at last season’s rate. More importantly, Allen had issues with getting the ball out in rhythm and with consistent accuracy. I watched a highlight video and he did a lot of important things on it, including accurate passes, but he didn’t get the ball out at the end of his drops even once on that video. The argument here is, of course, that his supporting cast was poor. It sure was and I didn’t see all 22 film to see if he was missing open receivers. I don’t know, but last season is done. He’s got a much better line and much better WRs this year so let’s see what he does with them. I’m not going to ding Allen when it might not have been his fault, but I’m also not going to blame people who wants to see Allen be effective with those aspects of his game before acknowledging that he can do those things well.

For some background on Aaron Schatz’s predraft QB analysis, here is a thread about that from that time. It uses QBASE Here is an older article that explains QBASE. TL/DR: It’s a metric that tries to rate QBs and incorporates adjustments for drops, level of competition, etc. So let us get right to your argument: That the eye test can show things that metrics can’t. And that Allen is an example of a player who is actually better than the metrics would show. First, is metrics the whole picture and is it infallible? Nope and nope. When stupidly applied, use of metrics can be truly awful. It’s a very useful tool, however. When used correctly metrics can certainly help make better decisions and judgements. The best users know those gaps and account for them. The worst blindly follow the numbers. So so what about Allen? Well, the metrics have never been remotely good for him. They don’t point to him having any real success in the NFL. That’s the rub here. Fans get ticked off because these people - numbers really - are saying Allen will likely bust. But something gets missed in that umbrage. These are predictive percentages based on past performances, measurements, experience, etc. Schatz makes that clear. Now about that eye test. It certainly is useful, but it’s a lot better when it’s unbiased. A big plus of analytics is that it is designed to eliminate emotion and bias. Allen has certainly flashed this past season and while that is encouraging, it’s typical for a fan to remember the good plays and forget about the bad ones. I’d also point to the linked thread above and see what people here were saying about Allen and the other QBs before the draft. Another thing that can happen is that some of the issues players have can be corrected. Some analytic sites don’t even consider D2 and D3 players because the level of competition skews things so much. Furthermore the coaching is often inferior to D1 programs so there can be more progress for players IF they are developed properly. One good thing about Allen is that some of the things that a QB can’t change aren’t his problem - size, arm strength, athleticism. He came from a D2 school (albeit a good one), but there’s a real chance that he can develop more than a typical prospect. At least that’s possible. If you can understand why people like Schatz don’t like Allen’s chances in the NFL it’ll actually give you a good idea of where to look for improvement. Or even look to places their model doesn’t cover. I really think Allen might be more unique than people think. His ability to buy time in the pocket to throw (like Roethlisberger) and run for yardage (like few QBs can) might help him overcome some of the issues that get brought up. Maybe he’s never going to be as accurate as we’d like, but maybe he won’t have to hit tight windows as much if he can consistently buy extra time in the pocket. Maybe his running ability gets him a lot less man coverage and he doesn’t have to worry about that as much. There’s a lot of ways things can still work out for him, but he will still need to improve or work around some of the past deficiencies his critics have pointed out. Let’s hope we get to see him evolve and succeed here. Nothing is written in stone- and Schatz would tell you that.

I agree. People have to understand that these analytics based guys are just talking odds in every case. Schatz simply talked about how he viewed a player predraft and that he hadn’t seen enough in that player’s rookie season to change his mind. He never even said that Allen couldn’t be a quality QB, just that he hadn’t seen it. That’s fair. Heck, he’s right. Allen showed some flashes last season - and a ton of heart - but he’s got a lot more to prove before any of us should anoint him a franchise QB. I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m not going to get ahead of things. I’m not going to cherry pick a game or other data and I’m going to rate him exactly like I would if he were the QB of the Jets, Vikings or any other team. He isn’t going to get bonus points for being a Bill and I’m rooting for him, or because I want him to succeed or because I know his back story. He’ll have to earn it.

I realize that

A 3 technique isn’t a NT. No NT regularly lines up on the outside shoulder of the OG. Typically a NT would line up at 0 or even 1 tech. A 3 tech is a DT.

The guy in the video was very confident, but my joy was subdued by the realization that he was only confident that it’d be 7 or more wins. Oh well, it was still a good sign that he thinks the Bills are on the upswing.

Dude, Flacco played out of his mind in the playoffs that year. I was just as surprised as anyone else to watch him freaking carry that team. And he did that in the last year of his contract, thus earning the huge deal he got. Since then, of course, he has not been remotely worth that contract. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t crazy good in that playoff run and Super Bowl. He was. For the record, I’ll take that deal if I can get it here in Buffalo. Give me a QB who’ll bring a Lombardi here like he did for Baltimore and I’ll be happy to see that man way overpaid.

I was afraid that’d be his advice to young corners again: Extend your careers - don’t tackle. How many CBs have been good enough to get away with that like he could?

Ouch Huh? Rudolph is definitely looking for a payday and long term deal. But they would have a much more difficult time dumping him with a new deal. He’s currently on the last year of a contract and there’s no dead money if he’s released or traded. Doesn’t get much easier to dump someone than that.

McCoy wants to play for a contender and get a good deal. Cleveland has been poking around him for months and still has enough cap room to make it happen. They’d have a great DT rotation with him. McCoy seems to be giving them serious consideration. One possible issue is if he’d have to play 1 tech there. He wants to stay at 3 tech. Indy has a bunch of cap space and is in contention mode. They have the advantage of an indoor stadium, but their DL is nothing compared to the Browns. Still, they could go nuts with an offer. Seattle has to be in the mix. They could sure use him and have the cap space to give him a good deal. And they are definitely a team that’s in the playoff picture. I don’t see the Patriots having enough cap space to make it happen, but they could get creative. Obviously have the SB thing going for them. The Rams have a need at DT and are a serious contender, but I don’t think they have the cap space or that it’s a perfect fit. He’s a better player than Suh, but I don’t think he’d want to play 1 tech even if it’s next to Donald. I don’t like the Panthers at all in this, though I’ve seen them mentioned. They have the cap space, but they’re not a definite contender. Plus they have Short at 3 tech and Poe at 1. McCoy would be relegated to rotational DT behind them. It’s be a good fit to play passing downs and spelling Short, but I’d think he want to have a more prominent role and be the starter. Lastly, the Bills. I haven’t heard us mentioned much but let’s look anyway. Cap space. Check. Need. We look a lot like the Panthers here. Oliver is our 3 tech of the future. We could start McCoy over Oliver and ease Oliver into things with a rotational role while Star fills 1 tech role on running downs. Still, McCoy doesn’t want to play 1 tech. And would we really want Oliver to split time between 1 and 3 techs rather than focusing on 3 tech? I wouldn’t. I think that takes us out of the running just like Carolina.

Trading or cutting Rudolph is the only reasonable place for Minny to get the cap space they need to go forward into the season. They also just drafted TE Irv Smith Jr at pick 50. Plus Rudolph would be a FA after the season and they would not likely be able to retain him anyway. This is a situation where interested teams are just waiting for a player to be released before pursuing a long term deal with him. It makes little sense to trade for him without that LTD in place. There’s been no indication that Minny has allowed those discussions between his agent and teams, but it might be happening quietly. Edit: Minny must’ve moved some money around. They’ve got all draftees except one 7th round pick signed. They are $1.1M under the cap now, but will need to find at least $4-5M more before the season starts. Cutting or trading Rudolph would free up $7.6M.

BURN THE WITCH!!!

That wouldn’t be smart. In fact, it’s be a panicky thing to do. Rudolph will be cut by the Vikes and we can easily outbid the Pats. No sense trading draft picks for a guy on a fairly expensive one year deal. If we are going to pay him some cash, then let’s keep him around awhile. That’d be a very good move.

Thank goodness. This is a hugely positive move for the Bills. We have our difference maker at DE locked up for 3 years. I’ve posted several times about the importance of addressing the DE position and this was #1 on my list. Awesome.

Excuse me while I whip this out.....

Yeah. I’m certainly expecting a whole lot better from the OL as a whole. Hopefully they get the line set quickly so they can gel a little.

Pretty thorough job of rating all of the OLmen currently under contract with the Bills. There seems to be a huge emphasis on pass blocking over run blocking. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-buffalo-bills-offensive-line-ahead-of-the-2019-nfl-season

I just looked it up. A player has to fail three tests for recreational drugs to get the four game suspension Lee got. Ugh.

Thanks. That is probably it. I see he did have a 4 game suspension for that, but I had forgotten about it.

I hear that

I have heard that there were off the field issues with Lee that have not become public yet. NFL teams are aware and that hurt his trade value. I do not specifically know what they were.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush This may have been posted previously on this board, but it is worth alt least skimming and reading the conclusion. TL/DR: Coverage is more important than pass rush in pass defense, but is less predictable year to year. One example cited is Pats vs. KC. The Pats have a much better secondary and lesser pass rush while KC was the opposite. We saw the results, much of which was due to Brady’s ability to get the ball out quickly. The conclusions do bode well for the Bills who are definitely building the right way per the article. It also alleviates some of my concerns about the DEs other than Hughes.

Who was saying that the Browns were a playoff team before last season? Even Browns homers weren’t saying that - especially with Hue remaining HC. There was hope that with Dorsey there’d be a turnaround starting, but there were still a lot of questions. Hue and Gregg were two big ones. Even Mayfield was unproven and a controversial pick. Things started picking up after he got in his first game and led the comeback against the Jest. Then excitement grew when Hue and Haley were canned and Kitchens took over the offense. Now Gregg and his ridiculous defensive scheme is gone too. Dorsey has added a lot of talent and a much better coaching staff to a team that went 5-2 over their last 7 games. Sorry, but there’s very good reason for the hype. Expecting the Browns to be in the playoffs this season is pretty reasonable. Saying that they are “premature” makes no sense. If you’re going to make a prediction, then it should be what you expect. Right? By your rules I guess I can’t predict playoffs for the Bills either since they only had 6 wins last season. But based on what they’ve added I think they’ve got a real shot at playoffs too. Why hold back that prediction because they didn’t do it last season? Or because they’ve been poor for so many preceding seasons that have little to do with this one?

It is doable, but there is a lot that needs done and the clock is ticking on some of it. Hughes in particular. If we don’t work something out before the season I expect him to want to hit free agency. Then we are stuck with either tagging him or probably watching him walk. Shaq almost certainly isn’t coming back. Since the 5th year option came into existence only one player who had his option declined has re-signed with the team that drafted him. That was Mark Ingram with the Saints. There obviously were players who were extended before or at the option deadline so I don’t count them. Murphy coming back to form would be great, but here’s my issue with him: He hasn’t looked all that great since his positive PED test. My worry is that he was only as good as he was because he was juicing and now that he (presumably) isn’t, he will be nothing more than average. Maybe it was his injury that was the issue and I’m being harsh, but I will not expect him to be able to return to form until I see it. It’d be great if he did though. So so those are my worries. Hughes walks, Murphy doesn’t come back to form and Shaq is out. Ugh. I’ll relax if/when we re-sign Hughes and Murphy steps it back up. I’ve completely written off Shaq after this season. Things can be worked out, but until I see something positive happen I’m going to be nervous.

There is an excellent argument against this. Simply put, it’s that there is so much money bet by professional gamblers who look to exploit mistakes that even if the lines are initially inaccurate they quickly become accurate due to those large, unbiased bets.