BarleyNY

Nearly posted the South Park “Randy at his computer” image to illustrate Giants fans in this scenario. Probably best to keep it classy though.

Didn’t say none of those mattered. I said that an elite player at a skill position would’ve made a difference and that the weakest spot was at WR on the outside. I also said that other positions that had issues could have also helped and that addressing the most important need does not preclude addressing those. I don’t see you debating that though. The only other position where improvement could’ve been as great or great was at QB. That’s not changing this season so I don’t see a need to address it.

There are always multiple reasons for losses. Always. There are definitely multiple places where the Bills could’ve been better from a talent or execution standpoint that would’ve changed that L into a W. But you have not in any way refuted that a difference maker at WR would not have changed the outcome. The Bills have a QB that can put pressure on a defense by running. They also have a lot of good pieces. But they don’t have a big difference maker at the offensive skill positions. They have two quality WRs, one in the slot and one outside. You’re telling me that filling the freaking hole on the other outside spot with a better skill player than we have on offense wouldn’t have made a difference? Not one important play? Not by that player or another because a play got opened up by attention paid to the difference maker? In a game that went well into OT? That’s hardly hyperbolic.

I love his salsa

But yet a difference maker at WR would have made the difference between a W and a L in the Houston game. One might even argue that we’d have been sitting at home with a bye if we had that kind of player all of last season. And the Bills still have the opportunity to make many other moves this off-season so.......

Absolutely agree. The cost should be our second, which is a slight overpayment on the JJ chart. LV is at 12 and Indy is at 13. Could also look at those picks if the draft falls a certain way. They both could be looking to move up for a QB or, failing that, be looking to stock up on 2021 picks to do so. Or the team falling back into one of those spots could be looking for volume. Either way, we sit at 22 and I see the 1st round talent softening up right around there if not before. It depends on whether teams reach for positions like Edge before we pick or if they’re going BPA. I am all on board with going and getting our guy. I want us to bring home a difference maker on the first day.

He doesn’t play in the NBA.

This Edge draft class is weak (Chase Young excepted). That’s only going to raise the value of the FA Edge players. Add in the expectation of a big jump in the cap with the new CBA and things are gonna start to get crazy.

That’s also a fair point. Valuing young, elite players as worth significant draft picks plus a big contract is one thing. Saying that Ngakoue is one of those players is another. I’ll be honest on that, I haven’t looked closely enough at him to have an opinion there.

Whichever one is dirtier, I mean, has the better personality.

I’d love to have the tough decisions that come with winning a Super Bowl. People often overlook the value inherent in trades like this. The certainty of getting an elite player that otherwise would be unattainable except by drafting that player is of enormous value. Simply put, the success rate of hitting on even first round draft picks is only about 50% and the threshold for “success” is pretty low. This article got a 53% success rate for players averaging an AV of 5. To put that in perspective 581 players in the NFL had an AV of 5 or greater. https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/ Finding an elite player is much less likely, obviously, and elite players change the outcomes of games. The possibilities of draft picks are fun, but they’re just lottery tickets. And cap space is only worth something when it’s used effectively. I’d give 22 and more plus a market value contract for a young, elite talent - especially one who plays a premium position. That allocation of resources would almost certainly help the team more than drafting with those picks and signing FAs with the same cap space.

One issue that I can’t find an answer to is how signing and other bonuses factor into the 30% rule, if at all. I can’t find where it does, but it seems like bonuses could be used to get around the rule if they are not included.

It seemed to work out okay for the two teams in the Super Bowl this year. The Chiefs tagged Ford, traded him to SF and SF then gave him a big contract. Seattle tagged Clark, then traded him to the Chiefs who then signed him to a big contract. Really, it’s okay to trade for proven talent and then to pay that talent. Really.

Thoughts on scheme fit? He seems like he’d be best suited a power scheme. I’d question his ability to pull in our gap scheme and I’d rather not take the chance at his current salary. Anyone have a more informed opinion?

Yes, don’t draft a guy because when he was 6 or 7 years old he wanted to play with Hot Wheels cars and not sports. Seems like pretty iron clad logic there. Now judging by your juvenile comments in your previous post you might not have changed a lot since then, but most of us did in the years between 6 and 21. Care to tell us about all the incidents along that common theme? Was when he realized his blocking was lacking and he busted his hump to become an good blocker? Or in HS when he saw his team in need of a CB so he told his coach he wanted to learn to play it - and became a lockdown there? Again, legit reasons for concern with him at 22, but you’re ignoring those for this crap.

I’m not saying that I’m all on board with Higgins. I’m not. His speed and injury history are definitely concerns. But criticism like the above is just juvenile BS.

This. Not running or participating in work outs and drills at the Combine does nothing to a player’s stock. Doing very well might solidify or raise that of a player like Higgins slightly. Best case scenario he’d be #1 in the second tier of WRs on everyone’s board. But if he were to have run a 4.65 or, God forbid, a 4.7 forty instead of the expected 4.55 he could’ve plummeted. Just one tenth of a second could hurt him badly. And he’d be going up against a field of players who had a big advantage over him. Some people here may not realize how serious the training for the Combine is. These players train very specifically for the events starting right after their last game. In fact, one trick to watch is for players who only do speed events at the Combine and then do weight ones at their Pro Days. They drop weight to get faster and bulk up to lift better. That will give a false overall impression because it doesn’t translate to an attainable combination of playing speed and strength. Higgins could’ve worded his reasoning better, but there are a lot of posters clutching their pearls in this thread. Parts sound like a group of old ladies sitting on their asses bitching about why little Johnny didn’t become and Eagle Scout and how he is never going to get into a good college now. All while ignoring that he graduated with honors and worked a job for years. Higgins was going to get picked in the bottom third of the first round or the top half of the second round before the Combine. After not running or working out he’s going to get picked in the bottom third of the first round or the top half of the second round. 22 was about the earliest he was going to go - and he’s still a possibility there if not a perfect fit. But the funniest thing is reading the “next Sammy Watkins” comments because I can definitely see KC taking him to replace Watkins. He’d be fantastic in that offense.

I worry about his tackling. His miss rate would be alarming for a first round pick.

That’s what they said, but really it’s about protecting teams’ investments. Let’s fact it, it does help the final product by helping with continuity and parity. The tag rules suck for young teams with cap space that are trying to find difference makers (like the Bills now), but are pretty damn good for teams with established playmakers (like the Bills should be soon).

He’s not a tag and trade candidate with a one year, $18.5M fully guaranteed contract. That’s negative trade value. I think House is probably right. They’re probably just trying to spark the trade market and get something - anything - for him.

I can’t imagine how that is accurate. He’s 31. The last 4 seasons he has played in 10, 16, 9 and 0 games, respectively. That is about half of the total games over that period. Spotrac estimates his value at 2 years, $18.2M which is $9.1M AAV, or just less than half of what the franchise tag is. To me he seems like a prime candidate for a heavily incentivized contract with fairly low guarantees and salary, but big incentives achievable if he were to stay healthy and produce like he used to.

$18.5M to franchise tag a WR this season. Fully guaranteed. Wow.

Great Googly Moogley. The WR franchise tag number should be approximately $18.5M this season. AJ should sign that fully guaranteed contract as it comes off the printer. Even if it is for Cincinnati.

Ok. So are we now at a point where we’re talking about a reasonable trade up to the tail end of the first round if a quality player at a position of need falls there? I doubt you’ll get much pushback for that.

I think it seems good to you because you don’t have a realistic idea of the cost. The JJ trade chart is probably the best case scenario of what we’d have to give up: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf I’ve got no problem with being aggressive, but it’s got to be for real value. I can’t imagine what player would both fall to the bottom of the first and be worth giving up so much for. We’d be better off looking at moving up in the second.