BarleyNY

I sure hope not. As for the OP, I agree. Nice breakdown. There’s a very good chance that whichever team wins that game gets a WC and the other stays home.

After attending the Browns game I think you are right. After the Washington game I think it was just wishful thinking on my part. Daboll went back to the usual offense. Also I checked the stats for other games. Washington was the aberration. I would like to see him call more games like that one, but there’s no indication that he’s tracking that way.

I dunno about that. 6-3 is good, but a 7-2 record might start to generate a little respect for the Bills.

I am just basing the scheming comment on my observations. This past game was certainly the most obvious example - and it’s one of only 3 games this season that I rewatched where I could pay attention. I do think the offense is skewing toward shorter passing and running (including Allen). I’ll watch to see if that is accurate. Reads aren’t Allen’s big issue, accuracy is. That is really what’s holding him back as a QB and that’s the main reason his advanced stats are so dismal. That has to improve or he will be what holds this team back.

I get why people voted yes with the thought that Allen is improving but still has a long way to go. However I voted no because I see much of his “improvement“ due to Daboll’s scheming/play calling to limit the more difficult throws. More screens, more shovel passes, more hooks and slants over the middle. I’d note also that I rewatched the Washington game and we had some really nice receptions on balls that were not well thrown. Advanced metrics try to control for drops, route depth, quality of defenses, etc., etc. Those metrics that I have been looking at - QBR, DYAR & DVOA - show a QB that’s about the same in 2019 as he was in 2018. And it’s not a flattering picture. I look at every throw and ask myself what kind of QB (elite, good, serviceable, back up) makes that throw. I expect every QB to be able to complete a shovel or screen. A 5 yard out or 8 yard hook over the middle is a step up from that, etc. I look at placement, difficulty of throw, etc. Does he lead his receiver into a hit or protect him? When I do that with Allen I see the QB the advanced metrics say he is. And I waited 8 games and formed my opinion before I looked at those stats. I also wanted to be sure before I got blasted on here. I also wanted to give Allen a chance to improve this season. I really wish I wasn’t peeing in everyone’s Cheerios, but I think the main differences between this season and last are what I mentioned before - Daboll dialing in the offense to protect Allen - and that we’re winning games. I think that Allen’s play is a big reason there’s limited enthusiasm for our success. (The other is the continued existence of the Cheatriots.) I’ve looked for reasons for optimism. One is that some of his bad throws that are behind his receivers are just a split second late, but to the correct spot. I saw that a couple of time last Sunday. He hit the window, but it was behind the receiver. With experience I think he can process faster and time those throws better. His footwork seems better in that he’s setting his feet properly unless he is scrambling (when it isn’t necessarily expected). That was a huge problem last year on short throws to his right, but it isn’t this year. I see our receiving corps making some great adjustments to throws and that’s helping the team immensely. They’ve covered up a lot and if they continue to do that then we are in much better shape. Lastly, Allen is still young and pretty raw. I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to dial in his howitzer and be as accurate as we need him to be, but he does have the athleticism to help us with his legs while we find out. Here is a link to those stats. Flame away. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

I think Daboll is doing a very nice job. He gets criticized for not opening up the offense, but he can’t yet. Right now he has it tailored to Allen. He’s running the ball a lot and giving Allen a lot of shorter throws while sprinkling in a few longer/more difficult ones. As Allen becomes more successful with those throws we will see the offense open up more. Daboll is just doing what he needs to do right now.

Allen is my biggest concern. We’re 6-2 despite having a QB who has been at the bottom of the pack statistically. He is either 30th or 33 (120 passes min) or 41st of 46 (10 passes min) players in DYAR and he’s 31st if 32 among qualified QBs in QBR. He’s only ahead of Mariota who has been benched and is right behind Trubisky who looks about to be benched. Daboll has focused on running the ball and has limited Allen’s throws. He’s schemed him a lot of short and intermediate-middle throws as well as throws like hooks where the WR stops. Allen has done pretty well on those. Deep and other more difficult throws have only been used a little to keep the defenses honest and haven’t been very effective. A lot of the offensive woes are related to how limited the offense is right now and that’s related to Allen’s current limitations. That’s what I see holding the Bills back against the better teams. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019 http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

true dat. For years and years people can discuss how we should have never won it

Frick. That’s right. My bad

For most teams 2nd&1 is a gift to take a shot downfield. The play call was just fine. Don’t anyone blame Daboll for that. There is definitely some blame to go around regarding execution on a number of plays. We won’t always get to play teams like Washington where we can get away with it.

Thanks, I’ll check it out. FWIW, I’ve settled on Trader Joe’s Columbia Supremo (the one with two toucans on the front) and the organic Peruvian from Aldi. Both are at a very reasonable price point. Thanks for the help, everyone. Edit to add: Checked and it looks like I can get Caribou medium roast beans from Amazon again. Costco has K-cups too so bean’s might be on the way there too. I guess I have a 3 coffee rotation now.

That is often a good point where trades are concerned, but I don’t think it applies here. Denver ate a bunch of dead money this season and they are set to have a ton of space this coming offseason. They aren’t going to be gaining comp picks from the coming offseason’s activities. They’ll be buyers. The other important points are that the Broncos season is pretty well lost already and that Sanders is 32 years old and making $10.25M in the last year of his deal. Denver would probably jump at Zay and a 5th. They’d dump the salary of a player who is gone after this lost season and gain both a pick and a cheap, young WR who is under contract through 2020 and still has a chance to blossom.

Yeah. I had a “Whoa!” Moment reading that too.

I’ve said it before, Zay is a fit in NE. Coming out of college he was very good at the kind of short routes NE runs, but not much else. Recently, however, NE has been dialing in on WRs who are good at contested catches too. He’s not all that good at that, but he’s still a fit there and would have a place on their depth chart.

I agree. BB will expose and take advantage of any flaws or weaknesses. Josh definitely has some and they got exposed big time. He seemed to settle down at halftime though. He had two excellent drives to start the 3rd quarter, but seemed to start regressing on the 3rd drive. Then BAM! Failure to slide. What I’d like to see is Allen come back after the bye more settled. I can see him working on things. For example, he started to bail to his right prematurely on one play and he stopped for a beat before bailing again. I’m sure the coaches are trying to get him to step up into the pocket much more often. It was there on that play and it’s there a lot in general. I’ve heard that that’s a tough thing to train yourself to do, but it’s so important. Allen has got to get over the hump on that, throwing the ball away, sliding, etc. Maybe a couple weeks to decompress helps with that.

Maybe in college that sort of thing would work, but this is the NFL. The ONLY time it would make sense is late in the game if your defense is totally winded and getting killed. And then only if you’ve got both challenges or it’s getting close to the 2 min warning and the game is on the line.

I agree that intent shouldn’t be part of the equation - and I don’t think that it is as far as the rules. When a player lowered the crown of their helmet and uses it as a weapon to attack another player’s head then it should be a penalty. The one issue I have arose last night when a Bengal was given a 15 yard penalty for it though. The offensive player had done the same thing and wasn’t penalized. Both planners led with the crowns of their helmets and connected with force. Should’ve been penalties on both IMO, but I never see it called for an offensive player.

No contact so it was not a penalty. Acting like you’re going to hit someone and then not hitting them can’t be a penalty. Who could officiate that? What team wouldn’t lose its (crap) if a call like that went against them? Imagine losing to the Pats because we had the winning TD called back because Beasley acted like he was going to hit Gilmore, but didn’t and still got an OPI call for it. This place would melt down. The Pats are extremely well coached. They augment that by cheating in innumerable ways. They also have an incredibly good QB. The combination has really paid off for them. Next time our DB better not break stride. The coaches need to cover stuff like that.

Only see that on one of the four plays and Josh’s footwork is bad on all of them. Also even on that play he got the ball off but threw a pick. Had his feet been where they should’ve been I have to think he would’ve thrown a better ball. I think the pressure of such a big game combined with playing the Pats (and everything Belichick three at him) got to Josh. A year and a half ago he was playing for Wyoming. Let’s remember that. If he learns and grows from this we will look back on it as growing pains. Let’s hope that’s what happens.

I hope so.

I appreciate Josh’s heart and, yes, it was 3rd and 8 with us down by 6, but he’s got to slide. We can complain all we want and endlessly debate intent here (and it probably was intentional), but who would be complaining if Poyer had laid out Brady in the same fashion? What Josh can control is whether he puts himself in position to get hurt or not. Slide, Josh, slide.

And Bradshaw would be the first to tell you he was never all that smart to begin with. At least he’s not a d**k about stuff. I hate the Stiller’s, but don’t have any ill will toward him.

Chase Daniels might be an upgrade.

Defense was stellar. Offense (Allen mostly) and specials (punt block for TD) let the team down. That said, a true #1 WR would be huge for this team.

Yes, that’s exactly what I was talking about.