BarleyNY

I will lose it if the Bills trade more for Cook than what Houston gave up for Hopkins. Cooks is a quality player and he’d be the best WR on the Bills, but he is no Deandre Hopkins.

You’d have to think this was the case. I mean, we’re talking about BOB here, but still.

I agree with this. Basically gave up a second and took on the David Johnson boat anchor. We could’ve thrown in some late round picks.

Nope. TE was a huge hole on the Browns. Stefanski ran the most multiple TE sets in the league last season with the Vikings. The only viable TE on the Browns was Njoku. I expect them to also draft one.

I agree. A second and a boat anchor in David Johnson. BOB got hosed here.

Here’s hoping

Sarcasm? I believe that Dobbins is going to be a very productive NFL RB. I’d love for the Bills to snag him, but it would definitely require some draft manipulation. He’s not in the cards at 22 and he’ll be gone by 54.

One of the impacts of the CBA approval This morning is that team will not be able to use both tags. No other change has been made to the tags or their usage from what I’m reading.

Me too. I was really hoping for an upgrade.

Dunno about that in this case. You just made it very difficult to cut him this season if we do find an upgrade. This is both sides agreeing to give it one more season to see if it works out. My real issue is that it makes upgrading the position very difficult unless we move in from Lee Smith. In that case our new TE better be a good in line blocker. The initial contract they gave Kroft was terrible. If we’re going to keep him this season at least it’ll be for less money.

The Bills get to keep him for less money this season. His upside is that most of that lesser amount is guaranteed. It also shortens the contract to just this season so - if he performs - he can get paid. I’d have probably just cut him, but they like him I guess.

Clemson has a notoriously fast track. I’d have been surprised if he had run at the Combine and gotten those times. It’s still better than what I would’ve expected for him even on Clemson’s track. If anything it’s going to help his draft stock.

I agree with all of that. Honestly, my bigger issue is building the defense and throwing Allen out there with such a bad supporting cast in 2018. They did some real work to get the talent level to a fairly good place for 2019, but it obviously needs work including real playmakers. I’m just happy 2018 didn’t completely ruin Allen. Now we get to see them take their shots. I largely give them a pass on KB. They were trying to make the playoffs and end the drought and WR was a huge need. He was just way more checked out than they realized. Lots of times players like that get motivated by being in playoff contention. That obviously didn’t happen. Most recently they got two good WRs in FA so I’m encouraged.

That’s not accurate or even the real decision here. First off, the delta for Murphy is $8M to keep him for this season. The rest would be dead cap anyway. I definitely keep him for that cap hit unless we have a big influx of talent at the position as we need to be 3 deep at DE (at least). The real questions with Shaq are 1)What’s his role? And 2) How much will he cost? He’s an excellent rotational DE IMO. I love him in there on rushing downs, but he is at best adequate as a pass rusher. That’s more like an $8M AAV contract than it is $12M one. As I expect some team to overpay I’d bow out at that time. If that doesn’t happen then I’m certainly listening. We are looking at an overhaul of the DEs in the near future, however. Shaq is a FA, Murphy is in his last season and Hughes has two left but, honestly, he may not see both of them in a Bills uni. I’d definitely look to address the position in both FA and the draft and target more complete DEs than Shaq. One starting caliber and one developmental DE would be my goal.

Gross. Tagging Shaq would be a horrible move. He’s developed into what I thought he’d be. A very good, but limited DE who sets the edge well and can get some sacks through scheme and effort (coverage sacks). He’s not a guy that’s going to beat an OT off the ball and get to the QB fast though. He’s a good piece to have on your team, but he’s never going to be a big difference maker. I’d be happy to keep him at a reasonable price, but he seems to be looking for the last nickel on the open market (and I don’t blame him for that) so I expect some other team to overpay. I just don’t want it to be us.

Perhaps they’ve got a trade possibility to move Star. That would yield a cap savings of $300k. Upgrade to a better, younger player in a longer deal. It’s definitely a workable plan. The Bills might have to eat some of this season’s salary to make it happen, but it’d be worth it to upgrade. Star’s contract was not a good one for the Bills. They gotta pay the piper and deal with it at some point.

In his defense as an OLB he’s in coverage a lot.

Thank you for this post. It’s what the OP should have been. Happy to see that the trend line is looking good there. Also I don’t think I’d assign them much blame where Zay is concerned.

I was just thinking about how they could actually compliment each other. Shaq at DE and Floyd at SLB in base 4-3 and Floyd rotating with Shaq at DE in the nickel. Oh well, neither are likely to be a Bill in 2020.

He seems well suited there. I can see the Steelers grabbing him if the Bears rescind the 5th year option. They definitely have a need there right now. I wonder how he’d fare as a 4-3 SLB, possibly adding a pass rush option on passing downs?

Odds of a WR becoming elite is definitely different between tiers of prospects. I have Lamb and Jeudy as the only two blue chip WRs in the draft. I also have Lamb as a fit for what the Bills need. So once he’s gone, then I’d largely agree with you. Then we’re looking at a big pool of similarly rated red chip WRs. At that point I’d only look to maneuver a little to be sure we got one (or maybe two) that fit our needs. For instance, Lamb is a way better prospect than Shenault. If we can’t reasonably get Lamb, then so be it. We are off to Shenault and similarly ranked prospects. It could still work out, but the odds are not nearly as good.

Statistically that is incorrect. A highly drafted WR does have a much greater chance of becoming elite than a lower drafted one.

That’s a really poor argument. Really? No one knows for certain who the best WR will be? Obviously. That’s actually a very analytics thing to say. But there’s also a lot of GMs and scouts who get paid a lot of money to take calculated gambles on players. If they want to use 2 or 3 early picks finding that special WR then we both seem okay with that. But why not take those picks and use them to acquire one WR with a much greater chance of becoming elite than two WRs who each have a substantially lesser chance? And, yes, looking at the OP that is definitely the case. If we had Deandre Hopkins and no one else of value in our WR corps I’d agree with you. But we’re the opposite. We’re very good at #2 and #3, but we have no #1. This draft is fat with WRs, but the top of the class is small. Just two. And one of those is the kind of WR we need. That’s Lamb and he’s the guy I want us to go get.

I think that the narrative of being able to count on finding elite WRs later in the draft is overstated. Yes, it certainly happens, but the hit rate is a lot lower. Looking at the top 10 WRs last season we have 5 first, 2 second and 3 third rounders. Your best shot is still early. If that fails, sure, take a couple of shots soon after.

This team needs difference makers - especially on offense. We have plenty of cap space to fill needs with good players in free agency. Doing that alone probably gets us back to the playoffs and maybe even a win in the WC round. It won’t get us a championship though. If that’s the goal then give me some elite talent.