BarleyNY

The trick in that case is finding value for your trade down. There has to be a team - or better yet teams - that do see a difference in 22 vs mid 30s and are willing to pay for it. Usually that points to positional importance or scheme specific players. 22 isn’t a terrible spot for that. Elite and blue chip prospects will be gone. Purple chip prospects will probably be running out around that pick. Maybe we can’t trade up for one we want and there’s only one or two left that don’t fit here. Some team will come get them. Or maybe they run out totally and someone wants to snag a red chip QB or DE (since it’s such a poor class overall). I’d rather get a better player, but this is a good way to go if we can’t. Ha! Jinx!

Your plan sounds like it’s on the spot for what we hear analytics based value models say. It should be noted that while that is where the greatest value is, there are two issues with building a complete team that way and that analytics models do show this as well. It doesn’t maximize wins and it doesn’t utilize cap resources well. A very value centric team could be built this way, but that team wouldn’t win that much and it wouldn’t even make the league salary cap floor. The point of those value models is to gain salary cap that can be used for elite players that equate to wins. So, yes, if an elite prospect can’t be acquired it’s better to get more second tier prospects. But ultimately teams want to spend to their cap limit in an effective manner. That means a strong base of value players along with as much elite talent as can be had.

Yes, Feliciano and Ford both had rotator cuff surgery.

This is my worry also. I have heard a lot of good things about Epenesa and YGM, but I think it may be just what you’re saying. Epenesa scares the living daylights out of me. I’m not yoked to metrics but at 22 we damn well better be taking a player that’s athletic. His SPARQ score is in the 15th percentile for Edge players. That’s not a typo. There is zero chance I am interested in him for the Bills on days 1 or 2. I think he’d be best served as a 3-4 DE. I think a team that plays that gets him on day 2. Gross-Matos is probably going to be a solid 4-3 DE and he’ll get over drafted due to the league wide need and scarcity of Edge players. I don’t want the Bills to be the team that does it. Taking him at 22 just seems like a reach unless the difference makers are all gone and we were unable to trade up to acquire one or get value in a trade back. He’s my safety school at 22.

RG wasn’t exactly a strength last season either. Lots of OTs have issues if they’re constantly peeking inside to see if they need to give help. I don’t know if this was the case last season or not, but how the player(s) next to an OLman having trouble are playing is always something to look at. Plus a torn rotator cuff is a significant injury for any OLman. I expect some OL additions this offseason to shore up that squad. We certainly have the resources to do that. If Ford struggles or if the injury bug hits, then there’s no excuse for us not to have good enough depth to keep a solid line together.

Thanks for posting that. A few thoughts: - he seems very capable as just a WR - elite or even quality TEs are much more rare than WRs and if he can be the former then that’s a plus IMO - he did very well with working the middle of the field - he also seems very physical which would play well at TE where the refs often allow a lot more contact with defenders - he could put a lot of pressure on defenses If he could flex between outside, slot and even in line (though I guess that could be done with him as a WR too) I don’t want to get too caught up with nomenclature here. Whether he’s called a WR or a TE, he looks like he can bring a lot flexibility and excitement to a team.

Just watched his edited tape from the Louisville game. From that limited info I see a move TE in the NFL. Potentially a really good one. Guessing he goes late first to mid second round at the latest. It’d have been nice to see him play with a QB that wasn’t hot garbage. It makes him more of a projection since he didn’t have the touches he should have had. He did get to show off his ability to make a tough catch though. He’d be a great addition to the Bills and really fill the need at Y. I love the possibilities with him in jumbo and multi TE packages. 3rd&1 from your own 34? Better not stack the box because he could get by his S or LB and go 66 up the seam.

Poyer is no Micah Hyde, but he’s a solid safety. He’s in the last year of his deal and I’d have no problem with an extension. It might have to wait for the new CBA to pass though as he’s looking for a lot more than a 30% increase in salary.

As long as Singletary is running the ball for the Bills there will be a little bit of Frank Gore here. He was a great vet to have mentoring him. Thanks, Frank. Best of luck to you.

Sure, that’s fair point. But free agency hasn’t happened yet. If we pony up for Clowney or another quality FA DE it might not be surprising. It’s early and just conjecture anyway.

I think you did some really nice work overall. On Wills though, I think he’s going to fall hard from where the media has had him slotted. In any event, he’s a terrible scheme match for Cleveland. They will be running a zone stretch and his agility is terrible.

Nearly posted the South Park “Randy at his computer” image to illustrate Giants fans in this scenario. Probably best to keep it classy though.

Didn’t say none of those mattered. I said that an elite player at a skill position would’ve made a difference and that the weakest spot was at WR on the outside. I also said that other positions that had issues could have also helped and that addressing the most important need does not preclude addressing those. I don’t see you debating that though. The only other position where improvement could’ve been as great or great was at QB. That’s not changing this season so I don’t see a need to address it.

There are always multiple reasons for losses. Always. There are definitely multiple places where the Bills could’ve been better from a talent or execution standpoint that would’ve changed that L into a W. But you have not in any way refuted that a difference maker at WR would not have changed the outcome. The Bills have a QB that can put pressure on a defense by running. They also have a lot of good pieces. But they don’t have a big difference maker at the offensive skill positions. They have two quality WRs, one in the slot and one outside. You’re telling me that filling the freaking hole on the other outside spot with a better skill player than we have on offense wouldn’t have made a difference? Not one important play? Not by that player or another because a play got opened up by attention paid to the difference maker? In a game that went well into OT? That’s hardly hyperbolic.

I love his salsa

But yet a difference maker at WR would have made the difference between a W and a L in the Houston game. One might even argue that we’d have been sitting at home with a bye if we had that kind of player all of last season. And the Bills still have the opportunity to make many other moves this off-season so.......

Absolutely agree. The cost should be our second, which is a slight overpayment on the JJ chart. LV is at 12 and Indy is at 13. Could also look at those picks if the draft falls a certain way. They both could be looking to move up for a QB or, failing that, be looking to stock up on 2021 picks to do so. Or the team falling back into one of those spots could be looking for volume. Either way, we sit at 22 and I see the 1st round talent softening up right around there if not before. It depends on whether teams reach for positions like Edge before we pick or if they’re going BPA. I am all on board with going and getting our guy. I want us to bring home a difference maker on the first day.

He doesn’t play in the NBA.

This Edge draft class is weak (Chase Young excepted). That’s only going to raise the value of the FA Edge players. Add in the expectation of a big jump in the cap with the new CBA and things are gonna start to get crazy.

That’s also a fair point. Valuing young, elite players as worth significant draft picks plus a big contract is one thing. Saying that Ngakoue is one of those players is another. I’ll be honest on that, I haven’t looked closely enough at him to have an opinion there.

Whichever one is dirtier, I mean, has the better personality.

I’d love to have the tough decisions that come with winning a Super Bowl. People often overlook the value inherent in trades like this. The certainty of getting an elite player that otherwise would be unattainable except by drafting that player is of enormous value. Simply put, the success rate of hitting on even first round draft picks is only about 50% and the threshold for “success” is pretty low. This article got a 53% success rate for players averaging an AV of 5. To put that in perspective 581 players in the NFL had an AV of 5 or greater. https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/ Finding an elite player is much less likely, obviously, and elite players change the outcomes of games. The possibilities of draft picks are fun, but they’re just lottery tickets. And cap space is only worth something when it’s used effectively. I’d give 22 and more plus a market value contract for a young, elite talent - especially one who plays a premium position. That allocation of resources would almost certainly help the team more than drafting with those picks and signing FAs with the same cap space.

One issue that I can’t find an answer to is how signing and other bonuses factor into the 30% rule, if at all. I can’t find where it does, but it seems like bonuses could be used to get around the rule if they are not included.

It seemed to work out okay for the two teams in the Super Bowl this year. The Chiefs tagged Ford, traded him to SF and SF then gave him a big contract. Seattle tagged Clark, then traded him to the Chiefs who then signed him to a big contract. Really, it’s okay to trade for proven talent and then to pay that talent. Really.