BarleyNY

You should check out their boards. By and large, Browns and Jets fans are saying that their QBs need to play better. They aren’t calling for them to be replaced today, but acknowledge that they need to be better or that’s on the horizon. Really similar talk to that of the majority of Bills fans.

Some corrections: - If there’s one guy who got the Bills out of purgatory, it is McDermott. - Even if Watson were to get $40M/yr next season, that would still be less than 20% of the cap even in year 1. That’s about what elite QBs will make. Even middling QBs won’t be far behind at around $30M/yr. - Sure, the optimum situation is draft and keep an elite QB that you win Super Bowls with. But it’d be really dumb to stick with a poor or middling QB just because you drafted him. The next best situation is to find that elite QB some other way. I don’t think anyone in New Orleans is upset that the Saints didn’t draft Brees. Or anyone in Green Bay was pissed off that they didn’t draft Favre. - Allen is only one season behind Watson in being due a new contract. If he steps it up and becomes an elite QB, then he’s also going to get that $40M/yr deal. I hope he does prove himself worthy of that. But if he doesn’t, I’d rather the Bills have a different elite QB that they have to pay rather than a middling one that they have to pay almost as much.

Bill O’Brien. That’s the only thing that makes me pause. You’re right though. It’s incredibly unlikely that Watson would come available through FA. But I could see another Clowney situation happening with Watson. BOB is already poisoning that relationship. If the Bills are built to win except that Allen hasn’t gotten to where he needs to be, then I’d be 100% on board with being aggressive and going and getting Watson (or any other top QB that might become available).

I kinda think that’s what they’re doing. I think that BB wants a ring without Brady to further prove his greatness. A stud QB would go a long way toward that.

That is a good strategy in general, but in seasons when a team is signing a lot of qualifying FAs it is especially important.

Wow! He has not played since 2015?! I actually had to look up his list of offenses, which is a laundry list of DUIs and DV incidents - including some as recent as 2019. I don’t see how he gets reinstated to play, but it is a very Cowboys move to bring him in.

I do not see that a firm offer was made. It sounded like they were at a point where they were getting into specifics, but not finalizing anything. The real telltale sign is that the Bills didn’t circle back to him before executing the deal for Diggs. They had time to make a phone call to his agent to see if he had made up his mind. They didn’t. Juat because Sanders found a better situation after the Bills traded for Diggs doesn’t mean that the Bills hadn’t moved on from him. He wasn’t out in the cold long and he found a real warm place. Good for him. He is still a Very good WR and it worked out for him. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t a little hurt that the Bills moved on without that phone call.

I don’t think this was any special kind of maneuver by Beane. Just straightforward and competent dealing. He really couldn’t show his hand to either player. The Diggs deal came to a conclusion and Sanders was left out in the cold. As Diggs is the better and younger player I have to think - even with the trade compensation factored in - that Sanders was the backup plan.

I agree. People talk about how good Singletary was last season. He was. But then I think about what adding another back who is even better than him. Someone like Dobbins. Damn. That would be awesome for this offense. They could split the workload almost evenly. Always a fresh, high quality back on the field to wear down defenses. That would also alleviate a big worry: that we don’t get a second quality back and the workload gets Singletary injured so we are left with zero good RBs by the end of the season and playoffs. Another quality RB is definitely my top need for this offense at the moment.

That’s pretty close to my dream draft. Dobbins would be killer in the Bills offense and an absolute steal anywhere close to 54. I am a much bigger fan of his than of Taylor. Ball security has been an issue with Taylor, but not at all with Dobbins. As for scheme, Dobbins is the RB I want in the gap scheme the Bills run. He’d probably do pretty well in zone or even a power scheme too, but he is perfect for gap. Taylor is best suited to a power scheme. He’d lose a little effectiveness in gap and would be terrible in zone. Hall would be a really nice fit for the Bills C3. I like several of the day 3 developmental players and their expected fits with the Bills too.

I do not think Cleveland is a good fit in our gap scheme. He’s a zone scheme OT only IMO. A good case can be made for the other three. I took Taylor because I see him as the safest choice and the most substantial immediate contributor of the three remaining. I wouldn’t argue with any of those three though.

Gauche!?! How dare you! Well, actually that’s fair point if it means we’d be taking a lesser prospect because we forced the position. But I really didn’t mean it that way. I just meant that we should look to find a DE that can develop into a good starter in the third or fourth round range. There should be worthwhile prospects in that range and we can always move around a bit if needed. If it doesn’t work out, then so be it. But we should be proactive at the DE position if we can be.

I wish I could give you a good answer. I have done zero film study on those players. I’ve just been reading draft reports on some of them.

Edge is definitely a need that we should address. Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal. Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs. If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft.

Not a fit for the Bills but I’m interested in seeing how this plays out. I’m guessing he gets moved for a third or a third and a sixth or something like that. How far he comes off his contract demands is the other thing. He is still of the best LTs in the league and should have a few really good seasons left. I hear that Washington is getting antsy about moving him which means they want it done before the draft. That’s probably smart. Cleveland is landing spot #1 for him and they’ll be taking an OT in round 1 if Williams isn’t already on their roster. I’m sure other suitors are in that boat too. I’m not sure what his final deal looks like or how exaggerated his demands are. I can certainly see his agent floating a high number not only as a negotiation tactic, but also to limit options of trade partners to teams he wants to go to. I think a contract around 3 years, $45M-$48M with a lot of cash up front is where this will land.

I’d like to see the Bills take a quality TE in the draft. There’s not a lot of good prospects this year though. From what I have been reading Trautman from Dayton is the best, most complete in-line prospect though he’ll need some development. He actually looks a lot like Knox on paper. If we’re wanting more of a flex TE somebody like Hunter Bryant in the 3rd would be a good pickup.

Those are great! Thanks for sharing.

I agree. I was more interested in whether BOB could be fired “with cause” for trading Watson. That would mean he wouldn’t get paid through 2022 like he would if he was fired in the usual manner. So sorry, man! I hate to do that to ya.

I’ve been digging a bit. Most teams have a GM or HC who has a contract provision giving them roster control and I do not believe that can have exceptions, even for a QB.* But here’s the kicker, BOB didn’t have that provision when he became HC in Houston. The GM did. BOB was given control of personnel after the GM was fired, but that doesn’t mean he had his contract amended. So I guess my answer is that without seeing his contract we don’t know. * Again, that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t get someone fired.

Technically the person who has contractually been given control of the roster has the authority to do as they please. Some teams don’t have anyone with that. Dallas, for instance, where Jerruh is the GM. I’m sure there are others. The big caveat is that in the vast majority of cases the person with roster control is expected to consult with ownership before major or controversial moves. Big trades of important players and/or picks are sure on that list. Adding a player with DV incidents is another example. But that’s on a team by team basis. Every team would have its own rules. Trading away the starting QB and face of the franchise would have to be cleared by ownership in basically every case if it’s not something that the GM contractually has to do. Otherwise that GM would be treading into some seriously dangerous territory. I’m not sure what constitutes firing an NFL coach with just cause (so the contract can be terminated rather than paid out), but an owner might be looking to see if something the HC did qualifies if he’s pulling crap like that without approval.

The Texans are just BOB, BOB, BOBbing along.

The other article I read, but haven’t found again broke down the first round further. Later first round picks were less likely to pan out than earlier picks (as you’d expect). overall hit rates in both articles showed about a 50% success rate. However when they further broke down how successful it found that it was 20% high quality/elite, 30% good/very good and 50% poor. That alone makes trading for Diggs a no brainer. Then take everything else into account - time to develop is a big one (as you mention) and it just becomes more so. Even in a great draft for WRs being locked into that singular position hurts our odds. Having 31 other teams know we had to go WR at 22 would’ve necessitated a draft day move up. Teams behind us who wanted our likely target(s) would’ve moved ahead of us for their preferred player(s).

Or maybe someone is just having some fun and seeing who bites

https://www.google.com/amp/s/overthecap.com/multiple-first-round-pick-for-player-trades/amp/ Here is an article from OverTheCap that talks about these kinds of trades. They end their analysis on players traded for two first round picks, but the explanation works for players traded for one as well. I was looking for a different article, but this one touches on most of the same stuff.

Casual fans overvalue draft picks, especially first rounders. In fact, most NFL teams overvalue first round picks. I was stumping for this sort of move before this went down and am very happy it did. If Diggs is a good camper, then we got a good deal. He sure has the talent to make this trade a no brainer for the Bills. Happy there are competent grown ups in charge.