BarleyNY

Future picks are tricky. It’s not set in stone but they’re usually discounted at approximately one round with the second round divided into to tiers and the first into three tiers. As an example if expect the Bengals to be drafting in the top 10 next year, then their 2021 first would be estimated at the value of a mid first round pick. If you expect the Bills to be a playoff team and pick in the last 10 or so picks in 2021, then that would be worth a pick in the top half of the second round this year. A place that some GMs find value is to gain a future 1st or 2nd round pick from a team that got a little lucky and over-performed in their record. If that team falls of, then that pick could be way better than expected. We don’t have nearly enough draft capital to get 33, 65 and next year’s first from Cincy. To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up. If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway. Often that’s second round talent. Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players.

Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart: 22=780 pts 33=580 65=265

Far too often fans (and even GMs) primarily focus on drafting to fill needs. This is simply an exercise to see how people would build the Bills if the team’s current needs were adequately filled. It’s meant to ferret out people’s: - general team building philosophy - opinions of specific players in this draft - this draft in general Would people prefer to stockpile picks or go after a game changer? Which specific players would be worth a move up? Do you build your team by improving the OL? Or Edge? Or CB? Sure, it takes a bit of imagination and possibly even some thought, but I was interested to see what people thought.

Crap. I goofed. I said “stud WR” to fill our #1 WR spot. That’s my bad. I was thinking along the lines of acquiring a player like AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders, not somehow getting hold of someone like Deandre Hopkins.

One of the articles I read on analytics showed that there appears to be a limit to how well GMs can draft. One of the issues that they face is actually the excessive amount of information on prospects. It can (and often does) create a certainty bias. IOW over the years greater and great amounts of information have been gathered on the top prospects, but the gains topped out a long time ago. But, as is human nature, the additional info has still made GMs more confident. That explains why Mike Ditka gave up so much for Ricky Williams. It also found that the real problems occurred when GMs didn’t stay true to their process. A big one is when an owner it coach with little real knowledge comes in and demands a player (coughManzielcoughHaslamcough). It happened again with the Browns with the coaches and Justin Gilbert. The DC came in at the last minute and demanded him, saying he was the player he needed to make his defense work. The took him in the top 10 despite not having done any homework on him. The teams that had realized he didn’t even like the game. There are countless examples of this kind of thing (with just the Browns alone). The best teams do their homework, listen to their scouts and stay true to their process. They don’t fall in love with players and are realistic about what they have and how well players can possibly do their jobs. They look for system fits and don’t get caught up emotionally with aspects of players that don’t matter.

Yes. Simply because I think he’s going to be a special playmaker and WR is such an important position. Also I think his specific skill set would fit well with Allen. And I would have no issue being 4 deep at WR especially since we’d be set long term. 3 WRs would be under second deals now and we’d have a #1 WR going on his second as they come off theirs. You’re sooo boring!

I’d have no problem with it. Also I keep winding up with Lemieux in my mocks too. He seems a really good fit for a gap scheme IIRC.

There are a couple players I might be interested in making a move up for. Isaiah Simmons looks to be a difference maker with a unique skill set. If he got close to 10 I’d try to get him. Also I might be tempted to go up for Lamb if he fell to around 10 or beyond. Chase Young has no chance to fall into a range where we could get him and he’s the only Edge player in this draft that I’d move up for. So he’s out. A move up for the right difference making player would definitely be on the table for me. If that fails then I gotta be honest, I’d move back if I could. I just doubt that there’s going to be a player at 22 that I love much more than I do a player in the second. (That’s simply because I wouldn’t have to target a specific position.) I’m looking for at least a 2021 first and a 2020 second to move way back. Or a high second and a third both this year plus some additional value. Yeah. An OL would likely be BPA and my choice if we would stay at 22 or close to it.

Let’s say for argument’s sake that the Bills find a stud #1 WR, fill out their Edge needs and generally clean up their weak spots prior to the draft. What would you reasonably look to do? Are there any players you’d make a big move up for? Or do you look to move out of 22 and stockpile future picks? Or just sit tight and go BPA? That last one is a bit boring for a hypothetical like this, but it would be valid, I guess. Edit: I meant a very good quality WR acquisition like AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dion-dawkins-21805/market-value/ Yup. Spotrac has him at approx $14.3M AAV. 5 years, $71.7M estimated contract. If the current CBA rules allow it, then get it done. If not, agree in principle and do it as soon as possible.

The article notes that he was an “amateur engineer”. Well, obviously. Here’s hoping he moves that up to this off-season.

Spotrac estimates his value at 4 years, $30.75M (approx $7.6M AAV). I’m good with that ballpark. Much more and I’d look elsewhere for his replacement. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/

Phillips is a good choice. I’ll say Conklin. He’s going to get paid like a top flight RT and he’s not one. The team that signs him is going to realize that he’s going to need a TE or RB to chip. A lot. You don’t have to pay top dollar for that.

I agree. I think too much gets made of big short yardage backs. It’s not like smaller backs can’t find creases that big ones can’t. Also I love the thought of using 21 and 22 packages with a back like that. Defense goes big, we split out 3 or 4 wide with Singletary alone in the backfield. If the D goes light and fast we go with a two back set and keep one or two TEs tight. A RB like that can help put pressure on a defense.

I agree. I’m far more concerned with getting a RB who can catch than I am with getting a bruiser. If they could also be effective splitting out it’d be even better.

I would not be surprised if the Browns asked him to take a pay cut or did something else to reduce his cap hit this season (ie a real or voidable extension), but I’d be shocked if they cut him before replacing him and created such a huge hole. Chad Thomas is the Browns 3rd DE right now. That’s a huge step down. Now if it came to light that Griffen had agreed to terms with the Browns then I could see it. But if that’s the route they’re going to go then why even ask him to take a cut? FWIW I have only heard that the Browns are looking at their options with Vernon. I haven’t heard anything about them asking him to take a cut (yet). Doesn’t mean it could not have happened though, obviously.

This is just speculation from Mary Kay Cabot based on Vernon’s salary. She is an awful reporter in general and her contacts with the Browns left when Hue Jackson got booted. This is not even an article, just part of an answer to a fan question about whether she expect the Browns to go after former Vikings like Griffen. FWIW Vernon is only due a $250k workout bonus this off-season so I highly doubt the Browns are in a hurry to cut him. I wouldn’t bank on them parting ways with him this off-season, but even if they do I can’t imagine it happening before they replace him.

I do expect at least one trade that brings a player here this off-season. Just how FA looks like it’s going to fall leads me to think that way. Yup. It’s a narrow path and it’s not worth working toward at the start of this off-season. If we are well into free agency and things happen to fall that way, then sure.

It’d be nice to start getting ahead of that curve.

Yeah, there’s really no point in it and I see Ruiz as a C. I guess that’s my whole long-winded point.

Yeah, big uglies early is generally a good thing. This particular player isn’t my favorite from a need/fit perspective. I love that he is expected to do well in a gap scheme, but his knock seems to be his length. Thus there is some disagreement about how well he’ll fare at OG (even among the reports on the linked draft network profile). Everyone seems to think he will be a fine C though. Morse is in his prime and under contract for three more seasons. I’ll note here that even though I consider his AAV to be high, the new cash in those seasons is very reasonable so I wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere before the end of his deal. He may even be extended in a couple seasons. I don’t care to draft a player at 22 that I then have to play at his second best position for several years before I can move him to his best spot. Especially when that player is an interior OL where we’ve already invested so much. I think Ruiz will be a fine C (and he may even be a fine OG), but I don’t see the fit this season with the Bills. If Morse was 32 or a year away from being a FA, then sure. Now he’d be a big luxury pick.

I was really surprised when comp picks came into existence. That’s a whole extra round - 32 players - that get drafted rather than have a say in which team they play for. Comp picks do help the “Haves” to somewhat counterbalance their FA losses. I’d love to see the Bills get to a point where they are one of those teams and I’d hate for them to be eliminated about the time that happens.

With the cap space the Bills have - and the cash they’re required to spend- I just don’t see them having a net loss of FAs this off-season.

That rule was changed before last year’s draft. They can be traded now.

Thanks for posting. It was a fair analysis.