BarleyNY

This is now on my “to do” list

This is totally what I’m got to tell the cops when they stop by to ask why I’m always looking around the neighborhood with my binoculars.

Good, fair article. If Allen progresses the Bills should be a formidable team.

A long time ago (40 years or so) they actually did this for one game. Just field noises, crowd noise and refs. Then immediately afterwards all of the post game crew talked about what a disaster it was. But I kinda liked it. If I had a choice of audio stream I’d probably take that over most announcers.

His defensive scheme where he plays a safety in the next zip code is horrible. While his aggressiveness defensively can wreak havoc against poorer QBs and offenses, the good ones can handle it easily. Intermediate routes just kill it. He was not helped in Cleveland by hiring his son, Blake, who I’m told was a bigger a-hole than he was. He was a particular problem because he was totally incompetent as a coach. Gregg needs to improve his scheme, but he belongs in the NFL. Blake does not.

I hope he gets healthy enough to be able to play, but chooses not to. I don’t want to see him get hurt again.

I know that the option would be a lot cheaper than the franchise tag in Allen’s case, but it has to be executed - and guaranteed - a full year before the tag would be applied. I was running down options. Basically just this: If Allen’s play this season doesn’t warrant picking up his 5th year option, then the Bills can let him play out his 4th season with tags as options if he improves enough in that season to warrant a longer term commitment. I think we differ in how much improvement he needs to make to warrant either picking up his option after this season or applying a tag after next. I also don’t think a fifth season is in the cards for him without the Bills looking to commit to him long term. In that case the possible use of a tag would just be a mechanism to ensure we could sign Allen long term.

Correct

Yeah. The fifth year option is a team option that can’t be refused by the player (except with retirement). No other team can negotiate with the player. Starting next season it becomes guaranteed at the time it is executed. The transition tag allows the player to negotiate and sign with another team, but the team that tagged him can match. They get no compensation if they don’t. The non-exclusive franchise tag is the same except the team gets two first round picks from the team that signs him away if they don’t match. The exclusive rights franchise tag does not allow the player to negotiate or sign with anyone else. All of the tags become guaranteed at the time the player signs them. So in addition to the transition tag the franchise tags are also options if his fifth year option isn’t picked up. I look at QBs (not just Allen) like this: If you get through four seasons and you still don’t think enough of that QB to tag him, then it’s time to part ways. The financial cost just becomes too great by year 5. So if he earns the fifth year option this season, awesome. Start preparing to sign him to a long term deal after year 4. If he doesn’t, but earns a tag in 2021, still great. If not, then it’s time to find somebody else. Four years is long enough to decide whether or not he’s the guy. Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed. Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March). This last group that included White is under the old rule.

Yes!

That’s fair. He did bring in Williams to compete. I forgot about him.

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be. That’s my main point. Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

I like a lot of what Beane has done and I think he’s a very good GM, but I really take issue with some of the moves praised in that article as innovative or even good. I’ll start with them praising him for getting a 5th round pick for AJ McCarron. F that. The Bills paid $4.1M for that fifth round pick. No GM worth his salt does that intentionally. And then there’s the matter of even making that trade, which left Peterman as the only QB besides Allen on the roster. Again, F that. There’s no part of that situation that wasn’t mishandled. Beane’s handling of the OL has been good. It was a hot mess that he got into decent shape rather quickly and for that he deserves credit. It’s a lot better than it was. A lot. But it isn’t exactly a strength now though. His strategy of bringing in a lot of capable players to fill out the line, letting them compete and then recouping some draft picks was very solid. I liked that. The Morse signing was needed badly. Beane overpaid for him, but I understand why. I’m not criticizing him for that, but I’m also not handing out extra credit for giving an above average center the biggest contract ever (at the time). He did what he needed to do. This season Beane seemed to focus on continuity rather than improvement where the OL is concerned. I’d have liked to have seen an improvement at RT. Right now I see a slightly below average OL, but one with a lot of depth especially on the interior. Big improvement since 2018, but not quite where I’d like it to be. IMO Beane’s best move of the last year was the one he gave up picks for - Diggs. We needed a bona fide #1 WR who could step in and be that player from day one and Beane found one. That was not an easy task. Fantastic job. Again, overall I like the job Beane is doing here. I don’t expect him to be perfect and I think he’s a very good GM. I just think it’s important to look at everything impartially and realistically.

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option. If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it. If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does. But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know. I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option. There’s always a tag. Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it. The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5. Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your thoughts, but I don’t think anything concerning Daboll trumps the impending financial decision on Allen. I think Daboll has done better than most here give him credit for. Execution has been a bigger problem than his game planning and play calling even though he’s certainly made some mistakes. The real issue is that Daboll isn’t due a huge financial and cap commitment soon. In March the Bills will have to decide whether or not to exercise Allen’s fifth year option. It’s important to note that he will be in the first class of players who the new rules will apply to. Fifth year options will be fully guaranteed when executed and the salary calculation will be more favorable for Allen than in the past. If the offense doesn’t improve this season then I can see Allen and Daboll paying the price and I can see Allen paying the price, but I don’t see just Daboll paying it. We’d do what in that last case? Bring in a new OC to work with Allen for one season and then make a decision on whether or not to pay Allen? That’s tough. It’s possible that it could happen, but it’d be a really tough situation for everyone.

The logical solution would be to hold the cap at its 2020 amount for 2021. Then when the league is back to normal, use some of the revenue increases to effectively pay back what was borrowed.

If the Colts were that bare of talent, then no rookie - not even Luck - comes in and takes them from 2-14 to 11-5 three straight seasons. But let’s just agree to disagree on that Colts team and get on with the Pats. I am not arguing that Belichick couldn’t eek out 6-8 wins with the current team, I’m arguing that he won’t by design. I think it is likely that he sandbags to get his QB. I’m not saying he’d have players throw games or anything. I don’t think he’d do that. I’m talking more about him keeping things very vanilla and not digging into his bag or tricks. I’ve watched him in games against teams the Pats were clearly better than and he did exactly that. He just didn’t want to show anything to future opponents and the Pats still won. Why wouldn’t he do that this season to get his QB and have a chance to win it all again. I don’t think he’s sticking around to go 6-10 or 8-8 or even just make the playoffs. If he wants to do that there were a couple QBs available that could’ve gotten him there.

Completely disagree on the Colts. They averaged just over 12 wins per season from 2002-2010. They did not miss the playoffs once in that time. They won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season and lost it after the 2009. Their worst record was 10-6 in 2002 and 2010. Then in 2011 they plummeted to 2-14 with no real QB to speak of under center before bouncing back to three straight 11-5 seasons behind Luck. 2-14 was on the QB position. The Colts big mistake was canning the people that they had such success with. The team eroded under the new god awful FO that didn’t bring in any talent to replace what was leaving. Then it was just Luck keeping the team afloat - until that terrible OL ruined him. Do you think Belichick wouldn’t take one crappy season to get his QB and a chance at glory again? It would be the exact kind of cold, calculating move he’s been so good at making his whole career. I will be very surprised if he does not go that route.

I honestly expect a Colts style one year tank by BB. Start garbage at QB and keep the play calling vanilla enough to not have much of a chance to win. Finish last and get your QB.

League wide I’d say pretty much every O and D lineman is a risk, especially DTs. Beyond that I’d start my list with Ben Roethlisberger.

I agree. It’ll be interesting to see what and how much comes out. Color me skeptical about Favre. Even if he trusted other people to run his business for him, he never had an independent audit done? This is the type of stuff that is supposed to find.

So no fans at the games then?

Injuries. That makes it 18 of 32 picks that had their option picked up or contract extended.

For the record, Brown/Graham won a total of seven championships. Four in the AAFC and three in the NFL.

They could designate him a post June 1 release NEXT season to spread out his remaining dead cap hit of $10.8M over two seasons instead of one, but that’s it. Or they could come to an injury settlement with him at any time. Washington made what I consider to be as serious of a mistake as imaginable with Smith’s contract structure - and that is separate from any conversation about the amount of money they gave Smith. There are no roster bonuses in later years. Those are clean, easy outs for teams in cases like this. Without that out, there remains a possibility that - even after paying him $71M - Washington will have to come to an injury settlement with Smith next March. I cannot possibly overstate how egregious of a mistake of such a basic element of contract structure this was by Washington. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/alex-smith-3337/ He would still get this season’s salary due to it being guaranteed for injury.