BarleyNY

I know how PFF is discounted, but they had a really good point about the Jets OL. That they’re basically banking on five coin flips to come together. Every single starter has a question mark that could turn out badly and building an OL like that is way too risky. You can have 4 solid or better players and risk that flip on one and you should be fine. Or even two, but that’s really pushing it All five is a recipe for disaster.

In a vacuum, I don’t see an issue with the Bills paying Griffen that. But DL already has the biggest outlay of any position group on the team - by a long, long way. I do not see them swapping out Murphy for Griffen and adding another $5M or so to that. If they were going to add a pricey DE I think they’d only do it for younger, longer term player.

I think that the COVID lockdown may have been holding up things with Clowney and Griffen. Clowney needs a thorough medical check before anyone writes a check. Griffen needs a visit so teams can be sure that he is in a good place mentally. I think things will resolve for both soon.

I can tell you that Cleveland has not offered a 1 year deal at this time. I don’t know how long their offer is for though.

No, a full year down would not be necessary, but that QB is going to prevent the team from retaining some other talent whether you’re right or wrong about him. The real issue is when you see teams ignore some real concerns and talk themselves into believing they have their guy when they should be more cautious. Sometimes that’s because the GM and HC expect to be out the door anyway if that QB doesn’t pan out. You need a strong owner who understands that and can roll with that situation. Oh, and if you do decide that your starting QB isn’t the guy and let him walk, then you gotta hope it wasn’t Drew Brees. It’s a tough situation to be sure.

This SI story talks about the kinds of contracts the writer would expect him get if he went to Cleveland. One year, $12.75M or two years, $23.1M. If that’s legitimately his range, then he’s not a fit here. Even with cutting Murphy (saving about $8M) that’s too much with the Addison addition and Hughes on the books. Griffen will probably sign somewhere right after Clowney does. Same suitors and Clowney will set the current market, so that chip probably has to fall first.

Yeah, I’ve done that too. Their available cap space figures were a mess for awhile. Back to the topic at hand though. I don’t want to downplay the impact of these kinds of extensions on a team. Using Goff as an example (and round numbers), he was set to make about $4M in new money in 2019. His fifth year option in 2019 would’ve been about $23M. Franchise tag in 2020 would’ve been less than $28M. So $4M for one season, $27M for two seasons or $55M for three with no future commitments. The extension changed that to $85M for three years, $110M for four years, $135 for five or $161 for six. Being wrong about how good your QB is can be costly not only in terms of cap space/dollars spent, but also in terms of tying your team to that QB. From a player personnel perspective the only worse thing than not having a franchise QB is not having a franchise QB and paying a guy like you do. You’re going to be stuck with that guy at FQB rates for four years (and that’s if he’s only on the team for three).

Yup. You did.

Oh. I thought that’s what you meant. Sorry. Wentz would have a dead cap hit of $24.5M before 2022 and Goff would have a dead cap hit of $32.7 before the 2022 season.

You’re looking at the dead cap numbers wrong. Wentz’s dead cap would be $59.2M in 2021. The $24.5M is the amount of dead cap over his expected $34.7M cap number for that season. Goff’s is the same. $67M dead cap in 2021. $31.7M in addition to $34.3M expected cap hit. These deals are absolutely crippling to get out of at that point. It can be done, but it’ll hurt badly. Realistically when you do a deal like those you are committing to your QB for 5 years. Wentz Spotrac Goff Spotrac

Man, you’re really off the rails here. I’ll just leave it at this. I spread the blame around, but Allen deserves a bunch of it. You’re the one who blamed everyone but him. He hasn’t played well against man coverage and pressure since he’s been a Bill. He did not play well against the Ravens. In the future he’s going to see more of the same. He’ll grow and figure it out or he’ll be a backup somewhere else. I hope he does figure it out, but I’m not going to sit here and pretend that it’s all everyone else’s fault that he hasn’t yet. And with that, I’m out.

You’re mostly just making arguments I’ve already debunked. So just refer to my previous posts and answer my question: In your opinion, at what point would it be acceptable to expect Josh Allen, the 7th overall pick of the 2018 draft and the Bills starting QB, to positively contribute to winning games like that one? Because he did very, very little to help in that regard.

Well, I wasn’t about to do your homework for you so I just went with the first link. Feel free to educate yourself on your own time.

Well, this was the very first hit when I googled it: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-qbs-against-man-schemes-or-zone Sure, a lot goes into what coverage a defense plays. But it’s also easy to understand why a less accurate QB would see more man.

Thank you for your service.

That was also my reasoning as to why the trade for Diggs was a no brainer for us. The hit rate for 1st rounders is about 50%. The hit rate for finding an elite player with a 1st round pick is about 20%. There is some good analytics work out there that shows that giving up a first round pick plus a market value contract for an elite player at an important position is virtually always the smart move.

Typically man coverage is played more against less accurate QBs. A few seasons ago the QB who saw the most man coverage was Cam Newton. I remember that because he was Allen’s pro comp in the draft and I read it in that context. The reality is simple. Allen will see a lot of Cover0 and Cover1 (as well as a lot of blitzing) until he can consistently beat man coverage. This season he will have three of the best WRs in the NFL at creating separation so that should not be an issue.

You’re saying some truly ridiculous thing here. I’ll hit on a few: - Your contention that offensive failures are always on the coordinator is mind boggling. Sure, they can be but by no means is failure always on an OC. It’s their job to put their players in a position to perform well, but the players must execute. That’s their job. - Next you blamed the offense’s woes on the supporting cast. Sure, they need to perform, but the QB who is the most important player on the team should be expected to perform too. No one on the Bills offense performed worse in that game than Allen did except for Knox. Everyone else can’t be expected to be perfect before even considering that Allen should shoulder some of the blame for his own play. - You also blame Allen’s issues on his inexperience and youth. He’s really not that much younger than a lot of other players in the NFL, including some more successful QBs. And, yes, he came from Wyoming not LSU. But I asked you how big of a pass he should get for that and you didn’t answer. Again the Ravens game was week 14 of year 2 for him. He doesn’t get a pass forever. - It should never be on the QB to win a game? Okay. I don’t think anyone is saying it is 100% on any QB to do it all by himself. But if you play the most important position in football, where you can impact games more than anyone else and can earn the most money of any position, then why shouldn’t I expect you to help my team win? You've blamed Daboll and everyone else on the offense for the problems on that side of the ball. Why is Allen so untouchable for you when it comes to his play? Why do you literally blame everyone else and assign zero blame to him?

This Spotrac link is really useful. Scroll down past the summary table and you will see all salaries for each year for all players in tables by position group. It’s easy to see what needs are coming up and where money is allocated.

Pinning this on Daboll doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Honestly, it’s total BS. First off, he schemed an effective way to beat the Ravens. Josh just couldn’t execute well enough on those early deep passes. That’s not on the OC. Incidentally it’s also not usually the OC when receivers can’t separate or the protection can’t block. But let’s hit those one at a time. The primary game plan was sound and would’ve worked if Allen could’ve hit some deep passes early. Incidentally the receivers we’re open on those plays and the pass pro was solid. Separation was not a big issue. Watch the All 22 and remember that this is the NFL. Pass pro was an issue at times. Knox getting blown up on the play Allen fumbled deep in our own end led to a Ravens TD. That was on Knox, who did not have a good game. But hitting a couple deep passes would’ve backed the Ravens off. Once they didn’t fear getting beat deep they stacked the box and blitzed away. So I’m not pinning the loss totally on Allen. I made that clear in my first post. But he sure didn’t help the Bills cause in this one. A lot of people here will blame everyone but him though. Maybe you can tell me when I can start expecting the seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft to start helping us win games like that one. I mean, that was in week 14 of his second season. I know he came into the league very raw, but how long does he get before we can reasonably expect him to make a positive contribution against a quality opponent?

What I’d rather have is a punter that can get a quality, repeatable result. The effectiveness of the two punters in that game was the same. So blaming the loss on our punter doesn’t make sense. Both punters kicked in poor conditions and they did an equivalent job.

On the punter thing, here are the Stats: Bojorquez 7 punts for 300 yards for a 42.9 yard average with 1 inside the 20 Koch 7 punts for 309 yards for a 44.1 yard average with 2 inside the 20 Both punted in the same crappy conditions and did almost exactly the same quality of job. The punting game did not determine the outcome of that game.

Yeah, I literally rewatched the game today. I’m pretty sure both teams played in the same weather. Both were impacted by it. It’s just an excuse. NFL Game Pass is currently free. I suggest watching the game on All 22 (Coaches Film). It’s not possible to see some of the things talked about in this thread (like WR separation) with the regular TV broadcast. It’s worth the watch.

I do not buy that argument in general and I don’t see what you’re saying on the All 22 in the first half anyway. (Haven’t watched the second half All 22 yet.) Defenses can change up the timing of the receivers, disguise coverages, jump routes, etc. But if receivers are running good routes and are getting open, the they’re doing their jobs. The biggest problem with the offense in the first half was Allen missing deep throws to open WRs. That would’ve produced points and forced the Ravens into a less aggressive scheme. The other thing was Knox getting blown up which led to Allen getting blindsided and fumbling deep in our own end. That was on Knox, not Allen BTW.

I just rewatched the game. I really disagree with separation being an issue. A couple plays, sure. But that’s typical in an NFL game. There were some real issues with protection - especially against delayed blitzes. There were too many drops. And Allen had some issues with some poor decisions and throws as well as not getting the ball out quickly against the blitz at times. That was a very tough matchup and that’s got to be considered when grading out everyone involved. Hopefully we can improve our consistency in a lot of areas. That along with the addition of Diggs would make a huge difference in games like this.