BarleyNY

I think “drops” is the wrong term. It’s more a case of Coleman catching a low percentage of his targets for various reasons. His QB’s accuracy was inconsistent, but I still came away very unimpressed by his performance catching the ball. Many were contested, but It’s not like DBs in the NFL aren’t going to be better than what he saw in the ACC. As for the guy doing the video, I certainly didn’t need him to tell me what I was seeing. At least Coleman is young and flashed in college. He’s got that going for him - as well as what seems like a great attitude. But if he makes it in the NFL, then it’s going to be a process as he is nowhere near ready for it right now.

Here is a video of all of Coleman’s targets this past season. This is video 2 on him from this guy. Video 1 goes through some of his metrics, the entire Wake Forest game and his highlights. I’d watch this one first. Fair warning, it isn’t likely to make you feel any better about him.

Something to keep in mind regarding Mahomes and probably Allen: “Mahomes signed a revised contract in September of 2023 that moved cash forward from later years, effectively giving him a raise of $48.3 million from 2023-26. The reworked deal also added two void years in 2032 and 2033 and changed his incentives to escalators to help create roughly $2.5 million in 2023 cap space.“ https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594 The Bills similarly moved cash forward into this season for Allen. He is getting $60M cash in 2024, but “only” $14.5M in 2025. I’m not sure if that will get reworked or not - or even if there is an understanding with his agent about doing something. I’d think the Bills would be very happy to have Allen play on the current deal, but I don’t know how realistic that is. https://overthecap.com/player/josh-allen/6892

That’s pretty effed up. When the NFL discusses teams’ markets they certainly include Rochester as part of the Bills’ market.

Really? I find that odd, but not as odd as the false binary you offered. It’s actually possible to have one great player AND several good players. Good WRs aren’t that difficult to find, but difference making WRs are. That’s because they’re rare and very valuable. One of their valuable impacts is that they can elevate the players around them.

No. Just players. Coaching salaries are kept pretty quiet by teams.

Thank you. One thing I suggest keeping an eye on is cash spending. Actual cash spending as opposed to cap space. It’s more difficult to manipulate than the cap. The Bills were top 5 in cash spending the last couple seasons. Today they’re sitting at 23rd for 2024. They will likely drop further as teams pay their draft picks signing bonuses. This tells me that they’re operating in an “old school” way where they ramp up spending to compete for a title, then purge players and dramatically decrease spending in order to reboot. If I’m correct, then they’ll be very aggressive next offseason in both creating cap space and pursuing difference making FAs. There is also a possibility that they’ll take a second year to purge before ramping up - or even that they won’t do it again. Circumstances will factor into that as well. There simply may not be difference making players available that they can acquire. If you want to see teams that using a highly aggressive “new school” cash/cap system then look at Philadelphia and Cleveland. They’re top two in spending and they’re manipulating the cap so that it is sustainable. Ignore New Orleans unless you want to see how not to manage a team. They’ve been a mess and are nowhere near digging out of it. I was hoping that the Bills would adopt the Philly model, but this one can work too. At least Pegula showed he will spend. KC and Cincy have owners that won’t. Both are very cheap by NFL standards. It really makes KC’s success all the more impressive. 2024 NFL Cash Spend by team

Also you extrapolated the data linearly, which is a big assumption. It is very possible that GR would wear down and become less effective with that workload. Also Parsons plays LB and doesn’t rush on as high a percentage of his plays. Taking out pass drops would be a better gauge. In any event, no one should be touting an edge player averaging less than 6 sacks a year. Not as a pass rusher at least. I’ll note here that GR does a very good job of setting the edge and using his length to contain and shed blockers to make tackles. He’s just never going to be a guy who can get to a QB quickly. He’s a complimentary DE, which is okay. What I can’t fathom is why some people feel like they have to make believe that he’s something more than that.

I agree with that. Samuel definitely has the potential to be a solid WR2. We’ve only seen that one season from him though - and garbage QB play is a fair caveat as to why. I am excited to see him with Allen (both as a Bills and Buckeye fan).

It’s just a shorthand for the quality of a player. Nothing artificial about that. You don’t need to use it, but it’s helpful to understand it.

The performance of the WRs in the corps is what concerns me. It is also what determines their numbering. I like Samuel and Shakir, but they are both WR3s in a good WR corps. We will see what Coleman can become. I’ll leave that as TBD. Beyond that I just see WR4s and below.

No problem. Yes. Fifth year option salaries are fully guaranteed so Rousseau will be on the books next season for $13.4. Some other things impact future cap space. For example, if less than a full roster was under contract for the future year then space will decrease as it fills up. Another thing that happens is that roster moves - like post June 1st cuts - that impact future years shake out. The Bills won’t have much space going into next offseason, but they will be able to create some. How much will depend in large part on how much cash the Bills are willing to spend.

We seem plenty deep at WR3 and WR4. It’s WR1 and WR2 I’m worried about. I know that there’s not much to be done at this point, but it’s a rough place to be.

The difference is that the Bills picked up Rousseau’s 5th year option.

That’s not true. It’s a ridiculous argument and, again, it’s not even true. The first player I looked up was Miciah Parsons who doesn’t turn 25 until later this month. He’s got 40.5 sacks to Rousseau’s 17.0. Asserting that GR is an asset as a pass rusher is a sure indicator of one of two things: - someone being disingenuous for the sake of being argumentative or - someone demonstrating a fundamental lack of football knowledge.

Yup. We could be seeing a lot of 2 TE sets if that happens.

Jeebus. You’re right. And that’s a rough realization to come to terms with. Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and the likes of MVS, Hollins, etc. Ouch. MVS could legit be WR3 if Coleman isn’t ready.

Gross

He only gave up $4.5M total in salary for $17M in guarantees.

Considerably better than Kincaid. He fills a necessary role here. Kincaid did improve as a blocker last season, but he was still a below average blocker. He wasn’t the disaster he was in college so his growth is certainly encouraging. If he gets to average, then Knox becomes much more expendable. As of now I’d be very concerned having Kincaid and Cook in with 11 personnel as neither are good in pass pro. Part of Knox’s 2026 salary is guaranteed so he is likely here through then, though a trade next offseason is possible. His last season under contract is 2027, but the Bills could easily move on from him that offseason.

Not today but by midseason we can.

I think that this will be the FO’s tack. They’re going to see how competitive this team is before spending draft capital and money/cap space on this season. If it looks like a vet WR or DE can meaningfully improve the team for the playoffs, then they’ll try to make a move near the deadline.

We could certainly use that. There are some decent CBs still available, but I don’t see the Bills spending much so one would have to come cheap. Even with us getting some cap space I don’t think they’re going to spend much.

FWIW I heard a rumor that the Browns will be traveling to Wembly Stadium to play the Jags on 10/20. So that would be one London game down.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-strength-of-schedule-for-all-32-teams-browns-ravens-among-hardest-falcons-saints-have-it-easiest/amp/ Here it is. Bills are tied for 6th for those who don’t want to click the link.