BarleyNY

I wanted to circle back and look at this more closely in case I missed something. Based on your contract parameters I get something this: 2022: $20M SB + $3M salary, cap hit of $7M 2023: $5M salary, $9M cap hit 2024: $16M salary, $20M cap hit 2025: $18M salary, $22M cap hit 2026: $20M salary, $24M cap hit Effectively a minimum 3 year, $44M deal due to some salary guarantees carrying into year 3. There’s just a lot better ways to spend that cap space IMO. I just don’t think Edmunds is worth close to that. I’m assuming that he has a competent agent.

My issue is that $12.7M is now the AAV floor for an extension and a longer deal means a lot more guaranteed money than that. I get your point about lowering his cap hit in the first year and keeping it low in the second, but we will have to take the rest of that hit eventually. It’s just a road that I would have preferred they had not gone down.

Unfortunately Bill O’Brien is not running an NFL franchise into the ground at this time so we can’t take advantage of his stupidity.

I can’t imagine a trade works out. No one will give up much of anything for a player on their fifth year option. They’d need to negotiate a long term deal first, but that’s a tough road to go down. We would have to tell Edmunds that we want to trade him, find a trade partner and hope his agent can negotiate an extension with them. Or, if we can’t find a trade partner, we would wind up with a MLB who knows we were trying to trade him on a one year $12.7M contract. That would likely spur the relationship. There is just too much downside risk involved in that path. This is why I didn’t think we should’ve picked up the option. He plays out his fifth year option or we compound things and pay him even more to stick around a few more seasons. By picking up the option we set the floor for his next Bills contract and he’s just not worth that kind of money.

Week 1: Rams Week 2: Browns Week 3: Broncos Week 4: Bills

Yup. $32M for 3 seasons of JAG level play. That is rough. I wouldn’t care if he was making $2M-$3M a season, but he’s getting paid to make a difference (in a good way) and he’s a long way from that. He has $2M of his 2022 salary guaranteed so he will probably be on the team next season too. At least it’s only $6.5M in new money so he will be less overpaid.

In all seriousness, Trubisky will probably sign somewhere as a Bridge QB. The contract will be in line with that and the Bills will get a Day 3 comp pick. The only way for him to raise his value to the level of a starting QB is for him to play well in multiple meaningful games. That’s not happening here unless Allen misses substantial time with injury - and no Bills fan wants that. Nagy continuing to suck out loud in Chicago will help Trubisky get another look, but his game film sucks too. He’s going to get a chance to put better film out there, but no team is going to pay him large until he does. (*I am not sure how this would play out in comp pick calculations, but we could get lucky on Trubisky’s contract structure if it is based on AAV. If he signs a nominal 5 year deal that’s really a modest one year deal with an option for 4 more years at starting QB rates we might get a better comp pick due to the higher AAV of the whole deal (which he probably won’t see). Again, that’s just speculation based on some knowledge of comp picks and mostly thinking out loud.)

After that happens who do think we will get to replace Beane?

Well, if he ever had a chance to be a good NFL QB - and I’m not saying that he did - going to the Jest ruined it.

He’s really losing it. I could not even understand him. They gotta get him off the air. He also said that the Ravens “held on to win”. Not really how one would typically characterize hitting a record setting, game winning FG.

Yeah. Slot CBs are such a value compared to outside CBs that it makes a lot of sense to pay them their market price. Not only is Johnson our second best CB after Tre, we have no CB of value other than Tre signed past this season. So we should not only sign him, we should do it ASAP. Edited to add: And, yes the 3rd CB is a starter in the NFL today. The 3rd LB, not so much. Teams that use an “Overhang” LB in lieu of the Nickel CB are the exception.

Totally expected it. The issue arises when the team has an extended rough patch. Then the buyers for PSLs dry up and fans who move away or no longer want to buy season tickets have to eat the cost of the PSL. Then it reverts back to the owners who can sell it again when the team gets better and the market picks up. PSLs not only pass along some of the cost of the stadium to fans - which is fair - but they also are a nice revenue stream for owners. They very much encourage season ticket holder to keep buying when the team falters and they are a nice boost when a team emerges from a long term slump.

I just checked the older games and the “Coaches Film” is gone from those as well.

Well it’s only been happening the entire time he’s been here.

First and foremost, the bolded part is absolutely not correct. One of Edmunds most glaring problems is that he often leaves his gap responsibility when it looks like the play is away from it. That leaves the gap wide open for cut backs. Misdirection and cut back runners are huge problems for him. Where he excels is scraping sideline to sideline. As long as he can avoid his blocker he’s great at that. As for his pass responsibilities, he is up and down there too. Obviously he’s got that sideline to sideline speed to keep up with a RB, but that’s not exactly that difficult of a job. The tough job his has is in underneath zone and he’s been a mixed bag there. He has been too inconsistent in both phases of the game to warrant the contract he is in line for here.

That’s a good point about other teams using him as an OLB and pass rusher. I agree that he’s likely miscast as a MLB. Milano is certainly the better linebacker.

That’s fair. “Splash plays” was generous on my part. I was not a proponent of the Bills picking up Edmunds’ option and I certainly don’t want them to pay him a huge contract to stay. He is very athletic and that certainly helps him make positive plays, but his mistakes and inconsistencies continue to be an issue. He’s just not worth what he’s going to cost.

Me too. And I paid for the product when they said it was included

Week 1: Rams Week 2: Browns Week 3: Broncos

Okay but every play would have to be like that to get an average of 1.2. And that didn’t happen. 2.6 looks correct for an average.

Dunno. But 1.2 seconds can’t be correct. It would be the worst pass blocking on record (by a fair bit). We know we don’t have that and we don’t typically see someone totally unblocked.

82nd of 101

This I may have something to do with it, but I think he’s confused by what he’s seeing. Defenses are scheming to take away last season’s bread and butter throws. These are not crazy exotic defenses. Teams are just more often using coverage schemes that take away the intermediate throws he killed them with last season. Other stuff is open though (as Warner showed). Allen will need to hit deep throws and take some short ones when nothing else is there. Also we are going to have to run the ball more. That he’s feeling extra pressure due to his new, huge contract could certainly be true. But there’s some other stuff at play here. Daboll has been using spread formations and the shotgun to simplify reads and keep Allen’s eyes up and on the defense. That’s why we don’t see much in the way of real play action where Allen’s eyes initially would be looking back at the RB. So what do they do? The team isn’t built to run a Shanahan style offense which leans on running, traditional play action and a lot of 2 TE and/or 2 RB sets. I’m not sure how Allen would do in it either. What we’re running is a lot like the offense NE ran with Brady. Allen is going to have to make quick decisions and get the ball out fast to be successful. Presnap reads will be huge. Then he can hit defenses on the longer stuff when they cheat up. Or he will have to be patient and kill them with the short stuff.

Pressure stats Pocket time for Allen both last season and this season is 2.6 seconds. So that’s not it.

Thanks for the post. I noticed that teams were taking away the intermediate routes that Allen feasted on last season, but I wasn’t sure how. NFL GamePass doesn’t have All22 up so no help there. Teams going back to more cover 2 makes sense - and I’ve seen this discussed in regards to how defenses are playing Rodgers. It looks like teams are going to dare us to run the ball, go to short routes and throw more to the TEs. I’m not sure we have the personnel for that, but we are going to find out.