BarleyNY

I think the BPA angle gets simplified and thrown around too much without context. There are many different ways to define BPA wrt drafting. Ability, upside, floor, positional value, scarcity, risk, FA replacement cost, need, scheme fit, etc., etc. There is almost never a clear cut winner across the criteria. I’m sure that at 30 Beane could’ve justified a number of players as the “best available”. Or a trade up or down the board for that matter. The Bills strategy seems pretty clear. DEs have drawn the largest free agent contracts recently. Premium position and expensive to get one as a FA so they have loaded up on them in the last two drafts in order to shore up that position and save cap space next season and beyond. Ditto OT with 3rd & 5th round picks. The Rousseau pick wasn’t just a matter of “we’re picking 30th and he’s the BPA there, so nothing to do but take him”. It was definitely more strategy driven. Like a lot of people here I’d have rather had them focus at least somewhat on short term improvement and spread their capital around to other important areas of the team. I get the plan, but I’m just disappointed by it because I don’t see how it get the Bills over the hump to a championship.

They got nailed by COVID contract tracing right before that game. They literally had zero WRs and lost by 7 points.

Nice post. I definitely see Sanders and Beasley in the field together too. I didn’t mean to imply that ALL he would do is back up Cole, but I do think that Beasley getting injured and not having anyone to do his job played into it.

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but come on. This has gotten ridiculous. What are you basing the JJ Watt comparison on?

Okay. So then it makes sense to compare him to Mario Williams? And to support that outlandish statement with nothing? Sorry. That is freaking ridiculous.

It’s going to be a very different Browns defense this season too.

JFC. You can’t be serious

With Rousseau I don’t see the flexibility to bend the edge or the change of direction that’ll allow him to get to a QB in the pocket. He tested poorly with regards to COD and even his highlight roll doesn’t show either. He should be fine at DE for contain, but if he’s going after the QB from there it’ll be by looping inside like Clowney does. Might as well just start him there on obvious passing downs and not have to worry about him leaving a void on the edge.

I’m going to wait and see on Sanders. He’s 34 and only started 5 games for NO last season. I think he’ll be a guy we can go to for first downs but not one who is going to stretch the field. It’ll probably be one of the younger WRs you mentioned lining up outside opposite Diggs.

I’m not saying we don’t need a better pass rush, we do. But Sanders at this stage in his career is a redundant piece to Cole. He’s not going to be a deep threat. A quality WR draft pick, especially a speedy outside one, would start. The problem with Moore is that he’s probably a slot only WR and we need an X. And those were available well into the 3rd round. But it does bring up an interesting question: Do the Bills really need someone to take the top off of the defense? Conventional wisdom says, yes, that it always helps the short and intermediate passing games as well as the run game. The Bills didn’t have a very good run game last season, but they did very well in the short and intermediate passing games. So maybe they’re focused solely on receivers who can separate (ie our current top 4 WRs) and aren’t that concerned with taking the top off the defense. Something to think about.

I don’t think most people are expecting much from late round picks and UDFAs, well, really ever, but especially in their rookie seasons. It happens, but not often and not predictably. Nor do we expect much of a contribution (hopefully) from a backup tackle. Literally a player who, if he does see the field for an extended period of time, it’s because Dawkins or Williams got injured. There certainly can be contributions from Rousseau and Basham, especially by later in the season. But they’ll be starting as backup/rotational players and going from there. They are looked at much more as long term (next season and beyond) contributors. Free agency really didn’t help the team beyond maintaining continuity, which is often the right move, but doesn’t really move the needle forward. Sanders and Brieda are good depth but I’d rather have had a player like Brown to stretch the defense. We missed him when he went out last season. We get Star back so at least Oliver gets to play more 3T, but who knows what we’re going to get from him after a year off? And it’s not like he was doing all that well before then. I was hoping for a few pieces that could help the Bills get over the top this season, especially with keeping up with KC’s speed. It’s unlikely that we got that unless our new DEs create enough pressure quickly enough to be that difference. That’s a tough sell for me.

Probably because he’s a Stanford grad. He’s probably too snooty for us in Buffalo.

Well, you’re not wrong. I understand why they overpaid a few of their FAs early on. They needed to get things turned around and no one was coming here without a premium. I get the Morse contract in that context, but there have been some awful ones given too - like Star’s $50M/5 and Kroft’s 3/$19M for example - that are indefensible.

The PFF guys said the best comp for JOK was that he was like a “faster Milano” and then he said “and I like Milano”. I was surprised JOK made it past the Bills too. Maybe if they wouldn’t have resigned Milano they would’ve taken him.

Cap hits can be manipulated to a degree, but every dollar paid gets accounted for eventually. And some ways of doing so can bite a team.

According to Spotrac they already did White’s, but they aren’t showing Dawkins’ as done. Sometimes those sites are behind getting info, so it is very possible that it already happened with Dawkins.

I mentioned Dawkins who is the best candidate for a restructuring. Poyer only had one more season on his deal so that would require an extension even if it’s a fake/voidable one. I don’t think Diggs is a guy I’d approach for a restructure as I think he’d require a bump to do anything. We easily could move a little of Williams’ cap hit down the road, but not much. There really aren’t a lot of great candidates.

Close

That’s great, but he’s gotta go find some cap space. We are pretty tapped out otherwise. The Bills are sitting on $3.7M in space now per Spotrac. Rookies will drop that to $2.5M. Then after cut downs when full rosters and practice squad players have to be included, that number would go to $0 or less. Plus then there is space for replacements for IRed players that has to be cleared. I think a restructure of Dawkins gets us through this season with no additional spending of note, but anything else is going to require clearing some space.

Kuiper was never a film guy. It was all connections and getting info from team. Now maybe that’s changed. Or you’re thinking of Mike Mayock who always did his own study. Not that Mayock looks good doing an actual GM job. Yeesh

Thanks. Just saw. I’m surprised.

That’s a nice face-saving thing to say for Edmunds, but realistically if he was all that was hoped for the option would already have been picked up. The reality is that they paid the guy that plays next to him and doled out contracts knowing what his option looked like. If the cupboard is too bare to pay him, then that was a decision that was made to prioritize other players. It wad not something that crept up on them. I do think that the Bills would like to keep him, but at a market rate. That’s tough to do with the team that drafted a player who has underperformed his 16th overall draft status. The right move is to decline the option and let his play dictate what comes next. If he balls out then try to extend him this season. If not then let him test the FA market like Milano did and see if it makes sense for both sides to get a deal done. Mistake IMO. But let’s see how it plays out.

Kuiper graded the draft like an lazy college English prof. 3 As, 3 Cs and everyone else gets a B. Hilarious he’s still stealing money from ESPN. He used to be the only guy dialed in to front offices and did a great job of monetizing that info. But now he’s just living off of that very old legacy. He brings nothing to the table anymore.

Chart shows a compilation of draft grades. We all know that there’s limited value in immediate draft grades, but they’re something to discuss now that we are entering the post draft NFL void. Flame away

I don’t think the Bills can afford to do much of anything at this point due to their cap situation. They sure could use some upgrades though because beyond Tre all they have are 2 or 3 serviceable players. It looks like they think that will do the job with their scheme. That wouldn’t have been my plan, but it looks like it’s theirs and we’re going to see how it works out. I’d think the Bills would have run that card up if Newsome somehow made it to 30. I know the Browns were very surprised he made it to 26. They were very much hoping one of the top 4 CBs would make it to them, but weren’t expecting it. I was a little surprised the Bills didn’t make a move up for him or even another player. 30 was a bad spot to be picking in this draft.