BarleyNY

I got some free bets from a site I bought some OSU NC gear from, so I made a couple parlay bets for fun with some of that.

well earned! and great job on the acceptance speech.

You should re-read my post as I agreed with you on the international games and the league/teams maximizing profits (long term, at least). You have your view on the capacity for future expansion, but that’s just your projection. Others are free to have their own views and disagree. I think it’s a mixed bag. The NFL is certainly going strong, so check. International games are likely helping expats stay connected to the game and may be helping grow viewership a little, but it’s getting crushed by the NBA in that regard. Nationally, adding time slots and games already may be causing some fatigue. Most fans of the game don’t have to worry about catching every game anymore to get their fill. Missed MNF? Don’t worry, there’s a TNF game now. Crappy games on at 4 pm on Sunday? Go outside. There’s SNF and MNF. There has been incremental viewership increases by adding time slots, but viewership of regular season games dropped 2.2% in 2024 vs 2023. So they may have already hit a wall in that regard. Also there was slippage in viewership among the younger demographic (16-24). That bears watching too. The NFL is smart to promote flag and 7-on-7 football. Fewer kids are playing tackle and that impacts emotional ties to the game. It not only keeps more young men in the game, it includes young women’s to. So the NFL is a very strong business, but history is full of strong businesses that over-expanded and paid a price for it. There is no certainty to continued expansion.

While I agree with that in principle, there is always the risk of greed getting the better of a business. Any number of missteps, including a focus on short term gain at the expense of long term success, is not uncommon in the general business world. Fans who love the sport or their team simply don’t want to see the league make a major misstep and damage the product. I don’t think that international games are a problem and I’m sure they boost revenue. But expansion if oft discussed. That would be bad for the league IMO. Despite paydays that have hit $60M/year and are climbing, the NFL can’t find 32 quality QBs. So as it stands every team added would be one without a good QB. I don’t see how adding a handful of uncompetitive teams wouldn’t hurt the league.

Is that your attempt at a save, junior? It makes no sense. You’re using the example of bringing in a 33 year old on a contract that binds him to the Bills through age 35 as a reason not to bring in a player in their late 20s on any contract? That doesn’t leave many players to choose from, especially decent ones. Lots of players are highly productive into their early 30s.

“Nearing their 30’s”? The Bills signed Von Miller the same month he turned 33 and gave him guarantees into his age 35 season. Trading for or signing a 28 or 29 year old to a contract with 2+ or 3 seasons of guarantees is vastly different (unless it’s a RB).

I don’t think it got talked about, but Allen fumbled in the KC playoff game. He simply held off the defender (who was trying to tackle him) with one arm, bent over and picked up the ball. Next to the Saquon Barkley reverse hurdle, it was the most athletic play I saw all season. No QB should be able to do that and I can’t think of another that could.

Those are terrible reasons to draft a WR at 33 to play X. The issue there is that Coleman was a poor separator in college. He was not particularly good at contested catches either. Oh, and he’s not fast by NFL WR standards. So you wind up with a player on the outside who has to make his living on the sideline with contested and back shoulder catches. That kind of WR doesn’t draw coverage away from the MOF or require a safety over the top. Coleman is young so I am not writing him off yet, but I don’t have any real hope for him either. The investment is made so you might as well see what we can do with it. Yes, he needs a very good offseason. But we still need that X.

Knox - TE, primarily in line Kincaid - TE in name only, best utilized as a Big Slot WR (Z) Shakir - slot WR (Z) Samuels - Y/Z WR Hollins - X/Y (but backup level) Coleman - Big Slot (Z) We have a lot of Zs, one Y and no starting caliber X. When they drafted him Beane did say that they envisioned Coleman as an X, but that was an exception to the prevailing opinion of draft pundits and other GMs. They said that they thought that his best chance of success would be as a big slot WR. Note: The X WR lines up winds and on the LOS, the Y is wide and off the LOS and the Z is in the slot.

Do we have to point out the obvious problem with that?

I agree. I think it’s also taking a toll on Allen. He keeps a lot of plays alive by scrambling to buy time for WRs to get open. Eventually that extra punishment takes a toll. A quality, speedy WR that opens up the MOF helps that immensely.

I disagree. There are some interesting match ups in this game. An excellent Iggles DL vs the worst OL Mahomes has had. Saquon vs the KC defense. I think if they run away from Jones they’ll be in good shape. I wouldn’t match McDuffie up against AJ Brown, but it’ll be interesting if they do. And a final opportunity this season to root against the Chiefs. Plus I think the Iggles have a better team overall and can win this one.

Be he was Robin Masters!

No! Not at $20M per! I think he’s redundant here, but if you want Kupp he’ll be a FA soon.

Exactly. $20M in 2025 and $19.85M in 2026. No team in their right mind will try to trade for him. The Rams will have to release him. 2025 is his age 32 season and he had 710 yards receiving in 2024. I wouldn’t expect much more than that out of him going forward. Probably less as he falls off.

When was the last time that a Chip Kelly’s offense succeeded without a big talent advantage? There were a lot of instances this season at tOSU that I did not care for his game plans and/or play calls. Certainly the Xichigan game. Also he seemed overly wedded to stretching the field horizontally even when those plays were not working. This is when he had the WR corps to run up and down the field against undermanned defenses.

Exactly. Complete 1 techs that can play the run and get to the QB are rare. Doubly so for those that are true difference makers. Obviously you grab one if you can, but you’ll wanna be ready with a Plan B.

That’s what happens when you win a Natty.

https://overthecap.com/player/d-j-reed/7027 OTC has his 2024 valuation at $6.236M. That seems low. Not sure why. He is coming off a 3/$33M contract.

Huge cushion all but one of those. Lining up that way is okay if you don’t want to tip the blitz, but you have to eat it up immediately at the snap. Nope. The CB just stayed soft. Ridiculous. It looked like the whole Cincy playoff game - especially with the ineffective blitzes.

Seahawks lead in PED bans under Carroll

Injuries to their OTs DJ Humphries and Jawaan Taylor caused them to shuffle their OL too.

How about if we level that playing field a bit? I can name a bunch of HCs that would kick ass and take names with Allen as their QB. He’s a cheat code. McDermott is an otherwise very good HC who is overly conservative and tight in big moments - and who lucked into an amazing QB.

Thank you, I appreciate that. And I appreciate your well thought out posts too.