BarleyNY

Can we just take a step back and forget about the specific allegations and any debate of their merit? Instead let’s take a moment to just focus on how both Watson’s camp and the Browns organization has handled this. Is there a single aspect either could have executed more poorly? Had Watson take a bit more of a financial hit upfront and settled with all parties and apologized publicly for his actions, this would all be over and he probably wouldn’t have even gotten 6 games. Also the Browns could have insisted he do so. Instead every step has been a misstep.

Standard of evidence. Criminal conviction requires the standard of “beyond a reasonable doubt”. The standard of “Preponderance of evidence” that was used here is >50%.

I’ve been thinking about this. The NFL dramatically changing the neutral arbiter’s ruling would undermine the overall agreement between the NFL and PA - as well as lead to a lot of other problems. But what about the NFL appealing and keeping the suspension at 6 games per Robinson’s ruling, but also tacking on a huge fine? They could use his contract structure as the rationale for that, saying that it will bring his lost income more into line with his missed games.

Spleen

Suspension from the league meeting is a big deal if he can’t send other representation. I have not seen whether or not that was the case. As for not being able to play with his multibillion dollar toy for a few months, good. It will also help the league the next time they put forth a case to suspend a player. The real hit is the first and third round picks.

That was certainly true in the past. The Watson case is forcing the league’s hand however. In her ruling Sue Robinson addressed the NFL’s inconsistency in application of their PCP. The league does not want the next player up for a suspension making the same argument. Might be a new day. Edited to add: Plus no owner wants other teams tampering with their players. This is an owner v owners issue.

Also the same league that gave Ray Lewis a $250k fine and 0 games suspended for his involvement in a double murder. They are not exactly a model of consistency.

https://theathletic.com/3224175/2022/04/05/von-miller-buffalo-bills-film-review/?amp=1 This article from The Athletic is about exactly this topic. I do not have a subscription and was able to read it. He’s best over RT and I would expect him to get the majority of his reps there. The big question raised by this is how it will impact Rousseau, who played in the same spot all last year.

It’s like they forgot they were going to have to issue a statement and threw that together in five minutes from a generic MS Word template.

Yeah. That was during negotiations toward a settlement with Watson’s lawyers, but I don’t think it impacts the case in front of the arbiter. It looks like the hold up was to give both sides a chance to come to an agreement, but that is not happening. The decision should be out today or tomorrow.

I think that the NFL set the bar very high when they came out demanding an indefinite suspension and that they’d rather lose the case than negotiate a short suspension. Then they can at least blame it on the arbiter and say they tried to get a more severe punishment.

Hope all is well soon with Dion and his family. He can miss most of TC and not miss a best when the real games start.

No idea. From what I know his role is to help set up the organization. He’s got his guys installed finally, but I don’t know what he does beyond that. I’m not sure why it would matter anyway. Getting back to comparing Allen and Watson. It’s a lot closer than people around here think. Take a look at their best statistical seasons, both in 2020: QB1: Comp %: 69.2 Passing yards: 4,544 TDs: 37 Int: 10 Rating: 107.2 QB2: Comp %: 70.2 Passing yards: 4,823 TDs: 33 Int: 7 Rating: 112.4 It might surprise people which one was better in 4 of the 5 categories.

That is not Depodesta’s job. Do you have anything beyond wild speculation to think that he was the driving force behind the Watson acquisition?

Sure seems like fully guaranteeing the deal for all 5 seasons was necessary to get him to chose the Browns over the other teams trying to trade for him. Typical guarantees in such a contract would make the player uncuttable for at least 3 seasons. So the Browns upped that to all 5 to get the deal done. Watson had one playoff win, which is exactly the same as Josh Allen had before he got paid. Obviously that’s not nearly as important as their play on the field. Both got paid after blossoming into a top QB in the league. The last year Watson played he was a top 3 QB in the league. His on field ability puts him close to, if not on par with Allen and Mahomes. What is your point about the AFCN? It is a damn tough division. Pittsburgh is the fourth best team in it and they’d have a shot at being the second best in the AFCE. But shouldn’t the Browns try to compete? If Watson doesn’t miss many games they have as good a chance of winning the division as Cincy and Baltimore do.

The league changed their active roster rules in 2020. Teams can now dress 48 players as long as 8 are offensive linemen. Otherwise it’s 47. That’s leading to the demise of blocking TEs who are being replaced by OTs who can block better and still catch a few balls during a season. I’m sure that some of the better blocking TEs will be reclassified as OTs as well. I think Doyle is the guy taking on that role for the Bills.

The Allen’s selling in 2024 would make a ton of sense. Carroll is signed through 2025. Draft a QB and get the team moving in the right direction and sell. The new owner would get to chose their own HC and GM without a big payment to the outgoing ones.

Decision makers use analytics to varying degrees. I doubt Dorsey took direction from Depo on the Mayfield selection. As for Watson, the situation seems pretty clear. The Browns thought they had a roster that was ready to compete for SB except they didn’t have confidence in Mayfield and they didn’t want to pay him a market value contract. So they went out and did what they needed to do to get a QB they could win a SB with. They tried to get Wilson first but no dice as he would not waive his no trade clause for them. So they went after Watson. Moving on from Mayfield rather than paying him certainly looks analytics driven. So it was either have him play out his option year and draft a rookie in 2023 or push their chips in with Watson. They went for it.

Depo wasn’t making the final decision on QBs.

Depo didn’t get his choice of GM or HC until this time around with Berry and Stefanski. He wanted Stefanski last time around and McDermott the time before.

Meh. I do not agree. There was certainly a power struggle emerging in KC, which he lost. But he still had control of the draft. Had Mahomes started that season he might’ve won that battle.

Could be in a late Friday news dump today. Sue Robinson said 2-3 weeks for a decision. Today would be the only Friday to fall in that range.

John Dorsey was the GM for the Browns at the time. He’s a “football guy” not an “analytics guy”. You might remember him as he was the KC GM who traded with the Bills the previous year in order to draft Mahomes.

Regarding Wagner, his contract is effectively a two year, $17.5M deal with 3 optional years at $11M, $10.5M and $11M each. So that is even cheaper than $10M AAV, though if he’s cut after one season his pay would be $10M total. So his age isn’t really a factor. He’s also been an outstanding MLB, which makes him a superior player to Edmunds. The Bills retooled a lot of that #1 ranked defense, didn’t they? Were all of those moves mistakes? So instead, let’s only give credit where it’s actually earned. Edmunds has a lot of gifts, but he has a lot of flaws too. His overall performance has not set him apart from a very crowded, middle of the pack of MLBs. There’s a reason he hasn’t been extended. He has not lived up to his draft status or the contract he wants. I loved hearing Beane say that he needs to make more positive impact plays. That was him publicly challenging Edmunds to earn the contract he has been asking for.

I held off on commenting because I thought that maybe we weren’t getting the whole picture. But, no. I don’t know how you give that contract to a QB whose contract needs that clause. Madness. But Ive said it before, some owners/GMs/HCs are more concerned about revenue/their next contract more than winning a SB. That’s how Kurt Cousins keeps getting paid.