BarleyNY

I see them as using a traditional spending cap model. Restraint most seasons with opportunity to make targeted, occasional big pushes to get over the top. From 2021-2023 they were aggressive with their spending. They were top 6 in cash spend each of those seasons. Von Miller was a big part of that push. This past season they dialed their cash spend back to 20th in the league and cleared some dead cap. They certainly could’ve been more aggressive and kept up their spending if they were using the Eagles model, but they went with the traditional reset. Moving forward I expect them to ramp up cash spending again this offseason to try to get that championship. If that doesn’t materialize, then I’ll have real concerns about Pegula’s willingness to spend. I don’t expect that, but I’ll breathe easier once I see it happen.

I’ll take a look at that soon. They’ll Browns will be getting some cap relief from Watson’s contract. $13.6M from insurance from games missed due to injury last season. Moving forward they stand to get back $44.3M next season from insurance due to his achilles injury. That actually has to potential to void his guarantees if it can be proven that he did not follow protocol to protect himself from re-injury. In that case they’ll just cut him. I’ll check out the link and get back to you on it. Edit: Just looked. Some will change. For example, Wills and Winston will have no dead cap in 2026 as their last season with the Browns was this past one. Their dead cap will accelerate to 2025. Spotrac will make those - and some other - changes when the new season starts and the contract officially void.

The big question for me is what they do about Allen. He got $60M cash last season, but he’s only due $14.5M this season. If something is getting done there then that’s where you start. As for a big trade like Garrett or Crosby the Bills would need to do a new deal for them so they could minimize the first couple year’s cap hits. The Bills can open up some decent cap space. I use OTC’s calculator to play with scenarios when I’m bored.

Agreed. It’s a risk in some instances. But the extra space does allow for some mistakes to be made and they can plan for retirements. The Browns messed their team up with the Watson debacle. It severely screwed up that locker room this year. They changed their offense to try to make it work with him and that caused issues. Then Winston outperformed him in camp, but they had to trot Watson out as starter due to the stupid guaranteed contract. That angered many because they knew he didn’t give them the best chance to win. Eventually the locker room fell apart. I don’t think Watson ever takes another snap for them. The counter example is the 2023 Browns. That locker room was tight and their cap management allowed them to do well enough to make the playoffs despite poor QB play overall. Moving forward it’ll be interesting to see what that team can do if they can find a good QB somehow.

Yes. That’s all void years do. The only other thing about them to note is that they do not impact compensatory picks. If a team had to write extra years into a contract to push out cap hits and then cut the player, they wouldn’t get a comp pick. But if they use void years they would be eligible for one.

Cap basics: - The cap hits for salary and roster bonuses hit in the year they are paid. - Signing bonus cap hits are prorated over the life of the contract for up to 5 seasons total. - Void years are fake contract years used to push out cap hits from signing bonuses. - When a player is cut or traded then all remaining cap hits from a signing bonus accelerate into the current year (or following year if after 6/1). Example of two players paid the same amount for a 1 season contract: - Player with a 1 year contract with $2M signing bonus and $10M salary. Cap hit is $12M in Y1. - Player with a 1 year contract with 4 added void years, $2M salary and $10M signing bonus. Cap hits would be $4M in Y1 and $8M in Y2. This is because the signing bonus is $2M/season for 5 seasons. Then since the contract voids the remaining 4 seasons of signing bonus money accelerates into year 2. It’s worth noting that if a player is extended before his contract voids, then the cap hits would not accelerate at that time. So you can see how it helps when you factor in a historic 8% increase in the cap. Just structuring the contract above like that is a cap savings of $8Mx.08=$640k. For nothing really. And those numbers get large when you go out 4 seasons on longer term contracts. Players don’t even get cash early anymore. It’s guaranteed, but is usually just paid out as if it were salary.

Teams like the Eagles can outspend teams with a more traditional cap structure by 15-18%. That’s a huge advantage. The mechanism is to push out as much cap space as possible by using signing bonuses and void years rather than salary and roster bonuses. I’ll explain how that works in another post. Just remember that the most important factor is cash spending. Teams have cash budgets for each year and the cap structuring follows that. There are some drawbacks and risks with the Eagles approach: - It is aggressive and sustainable, but it’s even keeled. There is no room to push “all in” and spike spending for a season or two. - You need an owner willing to spend that much extra. There are actually very few of those. Most would rather pocket the money. Mike Brown has always pocketed what he can. - Teams have to bet on the right players because it is difficult to move on from the expensive ones if things sour. Myles Garrett is a good example. The Browns operate with the same cap management style as the Eagles. It’s nearly impossible for them to trade MG this offseason. - And the big one. The cap must co time to rise at a fairly predictable rate. If we have another Covid year where the cap falls, then there could be very big negative repercussions. So Cincy could keep both Higgins and Chase if they wanted to, but they don’t want to spend that much money. They will be compliant with the spending floor and structure their contracts so that it looks like they don’t have much space. That gives them a story to tell their fans when they let a Tee Higgins leave. Owners like Mike Brown love this structure for that reason and they don’t care if the Eagles outspend them and get a competitive advantage.

I am saying that I understand that different positions have different pay scales due to things like supply and demand. Also Knox’s reworked deal is $9.8M AAV.

I’m not on the “he drops too many passes” train. He just had a couple high profile drops in the playoffs of the 23-24 season. But I don't think he’s anything special as a receiver either. iMO there is absolutely no way I give him anything close to a $15M AAV contract. Early cap hits can always be managed, but that is no reason to overpay someone. Pay him appropriately and structure THAT amount to your benefit. Incidentally, $15M AAV would rank him second among RBs after McCaffery, who is an outlier at $19M. And only 5 RBs are currently above $10M. Here’s the top 10: 1 Christian McCaffrey SF, RB$19,000,000 2 Jonathan Taylor IND, RB$14,000,000 3 Saquon Barkley PHI, RB$12,583,333 4 Alvin Kamara NO, RB$12,250,000 5Josh Jacobs GB, RB$12,000,000 6James Conner ARI, RB$9,500,000 7 David Montgomery DET, RB$9,125,000 8 Rhamondre Stevenson NE, RB$9,000,000 9 Joe Mixon HOU, RB$8,500,000 10 Chuba Hubbard CAR, RB$8,300,000 I’d like the Bills to keep him, but sometimes things don’t work out. Let’s see how things play out. This draft class is loaded at RB and there will be talented backs into day 3. I hope the Bills use that to cover themselves.

I don’t like that Cook and his brother are already negotiating in the public space. The Bills can’t even negotiate an extension until the new league year starts in March. I think his value on an extension is $10M-$11M/season with guarantees of under 50% of the new 5 year deal. Then we can get out if he falls off. Cook has fantastic vision and is a smart, patient runner. As others have mentioned, he’s poor in pass pro and nothing special as a receiver. This season he averaged 2 catches for 8 yards each as a receiver. That’s not helping his value IMO.

I don’t mean to gloss over players playing through injury, but late in the season and in the playoffs everyone plays hurt to some degree. Also his injuries were not so severe that he needed surgery. Beane was correct in his assessment that Kincaid needs to add muscle and get his body in the kind of shape needed to get through an NFL season. It would help with his blocking too. Honestly, I’m surprised that he did not improve more in that regard last offseason. It could be the difference between him making $10M+ a year and being out of the league in a couple seasons.

He has the highest AAV of any TE. If he isn’t sure he’s going to retire now, then wait until KC talks contract with him. He’s not only looking at a substantial pay cut, but he’ll need his snaps reduced so he can perform in the playoffs. Realistically, he’s 35 and it’s time.

I think so. His specials always seemed to do well even when circumstances were not the best for him. And he’s a great fit for the Bills culture.

Called it. Excellent hire.

Ah. That makes sense. Sarcasm does not always come through in posts.

The Eagles also implemented a very aggressive (and sustainable) cap strategy. It’s been copied by the Browns, but their Watson debacle derailed any chance of real success with it. Still, it enabled them to get to the playoffs in 2023 despite the QB issues. The Eagles aggressively roll almost every cap dollar they can into future years through the use of signing bonuses and void years. This allows a cash spend of 15%-18% more than teams with a more traditionally managed cap. That’s a huge advantage.

That’s not even close to true. He took Mitchell, a corner, in the first this year. Also he took WRs a couple times recently - Reagor and Smith.

It’s funny. At halftime I asked “If the game ended now who would you give the MVP to?” I had nothing at the time except Hurts or the entire Philly defense.

I think it is unlikely that Garrett gets traded to any team this offseason. In the case they do end up trading him I doubt that it would be to an AFC team. Interested teams - especially AFC teams - would be best served by making their best offer up front.

So Mahomes skipped hugging a depth RB who was on a 1 year deal and had a total of 92 yards rushing this season to hug his close personal friend who’s also been his most important and consistent receiver over his entire career - and who is probably retiring. Scandalous! JFC. People need to get lives.

Yes to Knox. Kincaid has improved as a blocker from abysmal to below average. That’s actually encouraging. He’ll need to add muscle and keep working on it, but it’s good to see the improvement.

Agree about keeping Rousseau if a player like Garrett is added somehow (though I’m not holding my breath). Rousseau has no bend so he really can’t get to a QB quickly. His only way to do it on his own is to walk the OT back and shed. That doesn’t work very often against NFL OTs. The reality is that he is a complimentary edge and needs to be opposite a quality rush edge to really be effective. That way he can shed and tackle the QB when the rush edge flushes him to his side. There’s no better rush Edge than Garrett in the game today.

I could see the Browns being interested in Kincaid. Njoku is a quality TE but they’ll likely be back to using more 12 personnel in 2025 and could use an upgrade to Atkins. My opening offer for Garrett would be 2 firsts and Kincaid.

A very good HC that gets horribly tight and predictable in big moments. Great coaches know when to break tendencies and we have a HC that won’t do that or allow his coordinators to do it.

It can be more than one thing. The DL is one of the things.