BarleyNY

Unfortunately the root cause of both was failure of our coaches.

If you’re saying that the coaching needs to be (a lot) better in the playoffs, then I wholeheartedly agree. If you’re saying we should continue to pour resources - high draft picks, cap space - into the defense at the expense of the offense, then you’re off your rocker. Because there are rules about how many draft picks and how much cap room we get.

I wanted to back to this because I’m trying to stomach the All 22 of the game. The first two possessions by the Bengals saw almost exclusive cover 2 by the Bills. The exception on the first drive was C-1 on the TD. The second drive had one C-1 inside the RZ as well. It would have been two but the other was the Offside play. Very basic coverage schemes with attempts to disguise, but easily read since they almost always went to the same C-2. That also made it easy to run on us. OTOH the Bengals really mixed it up on the first two Bills drives despite only having 6 plays. Watching this is actually making me feel worse.

I expect the old Tre to be back week 1 2023. That was my expectation since Thanksgiving 2021. People who talked themselves into him being ready to roll week 1 this season weren’t being realistic. Most of those same people are kidding themselves into believing Miller will be 100% week 1. We will be lucky if he’s even close to that by the playoffs.

In any event the Bills can’t count on him coming back next season. If we do get him back, it’s a nice bonus.

Absolutely it is a big drawback. It really depends on the opportunity cost. Who else is there?

Dunno. Other than Oliver, who is undersized for a DT but still an outstanding athlete, they typically go for athletic freaks even if the player is underdeveloped. Even by NFL standards Allen, Edmunds, Rousseau and Brown are athletic freaks at their positions. And all were very raw.

I would be absolutely floored if Hamlin ever suits up again. First, he’d have to get right physicality and mentally. Then the Bills or another team would have to put him back out there and risk something else happening. I don’t know that either of those things happen and I seriously doubt both.

There are no rules against a player and their team collectively deciding to replace the fifth year option contract. Baker Mayfield did it last off-season to facilitate his trade to Carolina. Except you can’t cut him. His contract is fully guaranteed. And Payne will be $20M/year+. If this team drops that kind of cap space on another defensive player they don’t deserve to win.

I’m sorry. I did not mean to make it seem like I was calling you or any other poster out. I was referring McDermott and Beane. They did a lot of talking to set expectations of a championship - or at least something very close to that. This was not long after the coaching mistakes at the end of the 13 seconds game. They crowed this off-season about how the Bills were a championship level team. Then in the playoffs we got a 3 point win over a Skyler Thompson led Dolphins team followed by a curb stomping by a Bengals team. In that game we got out-coached, out-played and out-hustled. They set the expectations and seemed happy to enjoy the accolades and praise all season. Now they can take the criticism for failing (again) in the playoffs and falling so short of them.

Let’s take a minute and think back to the off-season. We should really give a piece of our minds to the people setting those lofty expectations with such certainty. Who were they again?

I think the use of (or at least the appearance of) Hamlin as motivation for the Bills might’ve pissed off the Bengals. They were there and saw him almost die too. They also refused to play that night and they paid a price for that by not getting their shot at a better seed.

That pick needs to go to a backup defensive lineman and you know it.

I agree. Except I think he has been running mostly Cover 3.

Arguably the Bills’ defense was stacked with difference makers - and had them at every level. Von Miller, Milano, White, Poyer and probably Hyde. Some would argue Edmunds too. Oliver never got there, but was certainly drafted to be. Add first round picks used on Rousseau and Elam and a second on Basham. I have no argument for anyone on offense being a difference maker besides Allen and Diggs. No real effort has even been made to find another one. That’s so stupidly lopsided the wrong way for todays NFL. It certainly seems like McDermott is hell bent on making sure his defense has everything it could possibly need to be successful and that whatever resources are left over can go to the offense. Defensive gurus shouldn’t need that.

Dorsey would be required to bring me an offensive plan for the season that I could get on board with or he’d be replaced with one that could. Teams need difference makers to win it all. In today’s NFL offense is king and the Bills have focused too much on getting defensive difference makers. Job 1 is getting one more to join Allen and Diggs on their side of the ball. Preferably that would be a speedy WR who could play inside or out. This would allow him to play inside on sets with 3 or more WRs and outside in 2 WR sets, taking Davis off the field. If I could not get that quality of WR, I’d still seek an upgrade there and look to add difference making RB. Solidifying the OL is next. How to do so would depend on how the above shakes out (run vs pass blocking focus). Positions needing immediate improvement would be LG and RT. I’d also acquire a C of the future. McD needs to determine how we can get quality production from the defense with less resources moving forward. He also need to tell me if Frazier stays or is replaced. The defense takes a back seat to offensive talent improvement. Improvements will have to come from getting White back to form and getting Von Miller back at some point. Edmunds walks in FA and is replaced by a much cheaper LB. A reasonably priced vet is added to stand in for Miller until he’s back. A part time DE who can get to the QB is what’s important. Oliver plays out his fifth year option. Specials gets a better punter.

Yup. I hate the QB-on-a-rookie-contract cop out. Consistently drafting well and spending wisely is the answer to that. And guess what? We’ve got a top QB on a veteran deal. If you can’t make that work, then there’s nothing you can do for us.

Thank goodness that you can depend on draft picks always working out well or that revamped OL might be in real trouble.

That’s a reasonable thought as they certainly could use an upgrade at DT. But they’re likely more interested in longer term and cheaper solutions to their many needs. Or more proven players if they’re that expensive. You might be able to find a GM who will take a chance on such a highly drafted player, but it’ll be tough sledding with his contract.

Wow, that’s a very good return. But if you value him as highly as a Day 2 pick, why would you want trade him away? If I were a GM in need of a 3T I’d go to the FA market first. If that dried up or if I lost my 3T to injury during the season but before the trade deadline I’d look at trading for a player like Oliver. But he’s a pretty expensive one year rental so I’d need to be in dire straits to cough up a Day 2 pick. I’d be more inclined to trade a comparable player with a similar contract if it was prior to the season starting.

If you were an NFL GM, what would you trade for Ed Oliver and his one year, fully guaranteed $10.75M contract?

All true. But the combination of losing both White and Miller along with the timing of the injuries really, really hurt the team. This is not to say that the coaching staff or many other players performed at an acceptable level. Or even that Beane has drafted well enough. Those are separate issues.

Totally. The whole team, coaches, trainers and other staff are in on it pretending he visited the locker room and talked to them twice on Sunday.

And Tre White.

The numbers are the easy part of a GM’s job. Teams get good cap projections based on league revenue projections. Even the teams that get into cap hell planned to be there. Usually they were chasing a ring and had a QB at the end of his career. The complications that are the most worrying are expensive players with a lot of guaranteed money that don’t live up to their contracts for whatever reason. Unfortunately the Bills have two of them, both due to injury and no fault of the player or team. White and Miller are huge cap expenditures and the Bills are in the middle of it with them. They lost White for the latter part of last season, last season’s playoffs and got him back at much less than 100% for the end of this season and the playoffs. Miller’s best case scenario looks very similar. That’s a ton of cap space that the Bills lost due to some very bad luck.