BarleyNY

I said the exact same thing in the post you responded to. The second contract expectations for a 1st round pick staying with their drafting team are very much impacted by their draft position. Let’s use Oliver as an example. He was drafted 9th overall and the team picked up his 5th year option at $10.75M. In extension negotiations the expectations will be that $10.75M plus a percentage adjustment for the cap increase as a starting point. That puts him at about $11.5M/season to start. we’d be looking at something like a 4 year, $50M contract to stay with the Bills. He’s a solid player, but he’s worth nowhere near that so he’ll hit FA where some team will likely overpay him. He won’t get the above contract, but he will almost certainly get more than the Bills would pay him. Some team will decide that they can utilize him better or take a chance that he wasn’t developed properly or just have a lot of cap space and a huge need. Look at Shaq Lawson. We didn’t even pick up his 5th year option and he got 3 years, $30M from the Phins. He only played one season for them, but he made $13.5M for that season. Since then he’s been playing for vet minimum. Incidentally payroll structure is moot. The player’s value to the team and his contract demands are what matter. Just because a payroll has capacity at a certain position does not mean the team should waste it on overpaying a player.

Well, not just you

To me it’s coaching (O & D), offensive skill positions and OL, in that order. The second and third don’t much matter without the first. The Bengals showed us how having quality offensive skill players can mask a bad OL so it’s second. We need another difference maker on O. Thirdly, we could still use improvement on the OL to help the passing and running games. We don’t need any All Pros, but lining up five even slightly above average players would be a big improvement.

Myles Garrett.

I think McDermott and Beane are a package deal. I don’t think you can get rid of one and not the other. That’s Good from the perspective that it limits political finger pointing. They’re in it together so criticisms tend to get limited to the constructive type. I don’t think an owner should dictate the specifics of what his HC does to his staff. My conversation with McDermott would be about the recent playoffs failures and what he will do to to fix the issues going forward. He would not have to fire Dorsey, but I’d want to know that he has some real help next season. Defensive playoff failures and the relative contributions of him and Frazier would be addressed similarly I would have roster and resource allocation discussions with Beane and McD. I see a big imbalance between those spent on D vs O in such an O driven league. I’d want a plan to rectify that. While understanding that it was a very difficult season for a lot of reasons I’d emphasize the importance of fielding a true championship caliber team. On that note I’d stress how important of a component championship caliber coaching in the playoffs is and encourage them to make sure everyone and everything was in place to ensure that. Lastly I’d renew my commitment to helping them in any way I could to win a championship.

Obviously I take the SB win. As for the Iggles you can add that they’re still playing this season. It’s worth noting that the Bills really went for it with the Von Miller signing. Them taking that risk ended up hurting the team, but it did show their commitment to getting the championship. Now if they could just shift focus to doing something like that on offense…….

I think you’re proving my point. Did any those players you listed get second contracts with the teams that drafted them? No. They went to a different team because they weren’t worth their high draft position or the second contract expected by a successful pick at their position. What is what I’ve been saying.

In general that’s not how it has worked in the NFL. That a player was drafted highly absolutely has made a ton of difference when it has come to that player’s second contract with the team that drafted him. While it is not without exception, it is rare that a first round pick takes a contract out of line with their draft position. When it does happen it is usually after the player tests the market and finds it lacking. Putting the best roster together means spending wisely. Overpaying for players versus their value to your team obviously works against that.

I think it’s been obvious that what’s been holding this team back over the last four seasons has been the play of our safeties.

The issue with Oliver is the same as with Edmunds. Both were taken in the top half of the first round of the draft and through four seasons both flashed, but failed to live up to their draft position. Neither were extended before their fifth year option for that reason. Edmunds took a big step forward this season, but I don’t think that it was enough to keep him at the price he likely can get In FA. I think Oliver is in the same boat as Edmunds was last off-season. If I were to bet on it I don’t think he stays here past the 2023 season. The whiffing on edge rushes is also a problem, but a separate one.

No. The Bills actually started changing up the coverages on the third drive. I think that helped them get that stop. They tried to disguise on their first two drives, but fell into C-2 every time except twice when they went C-1. Burrow easily picked it apart. It was a huge contrast to the Bengals defense which started off using a wide variety of coverages. The Bills varied the coverages more the rest of the game, but still used a lot of C-2. I was very surprised at how basic almost all of it looked. One last thing. Zone coverage can include pattern matching and NFL teams do this a lot now. It used to be that players would run to a spot. Now many use a pattern matching zone where some of the defenders closely cover receivers in their zone. That looks similar to man coverage except that often they will pass them off to another zone’s defender. Pattern matching zone schemes are a lot more difficult to execute, but are far superior to the more traditional zone. You may have been seeing this - especially on the underneath routes - as it looks a lot like man.

You’re either hilarious or wasted. 1. Orlando Brown’s MV is $22.4M per Spotrac. 5 years, $112M is not happening - especially not for a RT. Playing him at LT and moving Dawkins to RT is also a bad plan. 2. If we could move Oliver at all, it would be for either a similarly performing player with a similar contract situation or a flip of late picks. An All Pro? Not even an All Pro long snapper. 3. I wholeheartedly agree with drafting a C this year. I would not rush Morse off the team this year though. Lots of responsibilities for a C, including making line calls and not getting shoved back into their FQB. 4. Sure on Bates. Brown should stay at OT, but he should get competition for the starting job. 5. I’m certainly good with using a pick on a RT.

I’m with you. I watched the All 22 and we seemed to be in it mentally and physically until the Bengals scored the TD at the very end of the 3rd quarter. We were down 24-10 at that point. Even then, it wasn’t an immediate collapse. We had the long FG drive. The collision between White and Poyer along with the Bengals FG seemed to do it though. It was over, but that looked to be more a function of the game, not the season.

Let me see who the Jest and Phins are lining up at QB before I answer the OP.

Maybe they’d have played tighter with Miller on the field. But I agree that they weren’t going to beat Cincy playing soft coverages regardless of whether he was on the field or not. In the Bengals game I saw the Bills play a ton of cover 2. The first TD was against the only non-cover 2 of the drive - a cover 1. The second drive had all c-2 except for one C-1. IIRC that play was a run anyway.

I have a T-fal deep fryer. It drains, filters and captures the oil in its own container so I can reuse it a bunch of times. I just store it in a cool place. When it is time to throw it out you can put it in the regular trash. I just use the containers it came in. Also I use the fryer outside so as to not smell up the house. Here’s the Link to it. It was on sale during the holidays. I use it for wings when I make them. I cooked homemade buttermilk chicken tenders in it just last night. It works great but it does not have a huge capacity. The oil stays hot though so doing multiple batches is not an issue.

I was also thinking about Teller. Obviously we have a different OL coach now, but it’s not like Kromer elevated the play of the OL this year. It will be interesting to watch Hodgins and see how he further develops. Good topic by @FrenchConnection Oliver hasn’t developed into the player the draft experts expected and Edmunds took until his fifth season to really take a step forward. The team has had Epenesa lose weight and then gain some back. But I haven’t seen a bit of improvement since day 1 with him. Those three all look like development issues. I’ll add Elam to that list as one to watch. That pick was a move made out of necessity because we were in such a dire situation at CB. He’s only one season in - and he has the talent to play in the NFL - but we have seen little of him. Coming out of college he was a man corner with very little experience in zone coverage He was in need of development. If he can’t get into the field as a starter next season then we likely have a problem with him too. Rousseau is a bit different to me though. I see a very big similarity with him and Shaq Lawson (not a Beane pick). Coming out both looked to me like their ceiling with the team was 4-5 seasons. That’s because they were both drafted in the first round and neither was a bend-the-edge DE. Players that can get to the QB on their own are the guys that get PAID. You just can’t give the kind of extension expected by a first round pick to an edge setter or complimentary DE. To me the Rousseau selection looks more like a cost control move for an expensive position of need, not a long term piece. That’s an issue with strategy rather than drafting IMO.

You’ve got to be kidding me. Edmunds is one of the worst blitzing LBs I’ve ever seen. He has been used as a blitzer often since Miller’s injury. What was rare was any positive impact from it. He seems to just find an offensive lineman every time. That’s why you didn’t notice it happening. The only reason I can think that they didn’t blitz Milano instead is because he much better in man coverage too. Signing Edmunds to the size of contract he’s likely to get in FA would be a huge mistake. That money could be far better used on a playmaking WR or the OL. Spotrac estimates his value at $11M/yr. I’d be okay with that, but my bet is a team pays him $15M/yr. No thank you. Edit: Spotrac link to Edmunds MV calc

Good topic. That they might let Hines go due to his contract is a real possibility. It is bothersome that he didn’t get more work in the backfield so we could have seen what he brought to the table there. Obviously he had great moments as a return man. I agree that money will have a lot to do with whom the Bills fill out their backfield, but the answer might be C. New Free Agent(s). The RB market looks like it will be depressed because is should have a lot of good backs on it. The Bills should have some choices for reasonable deals. I can see a new FA and a day 3 draft pick to go along with Cook.

Unfortunately the root cause of both was failure of our coaches.

If you’re saying that the coaching needs to be (a lot) better in the playoffs, then I wholeheartedly agree. If you’re saying we should continue to pour resources - high draft picks, cap space - into the defense at the expense of the offense, then you’re off your rocker. Because there are rules about how many draft picks and how much cap room we get.

I wanted to back to this because I’m trying to stomach the All 22 of the game. The first two possessions by the Bengals saw almost exclusive cover 2 by the Bills. The exception on the first drive was C-1 on the TD. The second drive had one C-1 inside the RZ as well. It would have been two but the other was the Offside play. Very basic coverage schemes with attempts to disguise, but easily read since they almost always went to the same C-2. That also made it easy to run on us. OTOH the Bengals really mixed it up on the first two Bills drives despite only having 6 plays. Watching this is actually making me feel worse.

I expect the old Tre to be back week 1 2023. That was my expectation since Thanksgiving 2021. People who talked themselves into him being ready to roll week 1 this season weren’t being realistic. Most of those same people are kidding themselves into believing Miller will be 100% week 1. We will be lucky if he’s even close to that by the playoffs.

In any event the Bills can’t count on him coming back next season. If we do get him back, it’s a nice bonus.

Absolutely it is a big drawback. It really depends on the opportunity cost. Who else is there?