Luka
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Posts posted by Luka
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2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:
ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS
Premier, quick twitch athlete with explosion pulsing through his hips and feet. Instant click-and-close action to explode forward and attack the throw. Vertical springs to go up and over receivers at the high point. Smooth, controlled backpedal with ability to weave and mirror route progressions. Plays with outstanding body control and balance. Feet are electric. Can overwhelm lesser opponents across from him. Instinctive and urgent in his play. Excels from press, off or zone coverage. Fiery competitor with a strong desire to own the pass. Has quick, soft hands. Posted 38 passes defensed and 10 interceptions over last three years. Could see early kick or punt return action. Unwilling to stay blocked and doesn't hesitate for one moment in run support and against wide receiver screens. Chest-up tackler who runs through his target.
WEAKNESSES
Lean, wiry frame. Aggressive nature allows teams to bait him with double moves. Quicker than fast and doesn't have closing speed to make mistakes underneath and still recover on top. Allowed 16.5 yards per completion this season. Scouts worry about his height outside. Big receivers will pose a challenge on the next level. Had his two worst games of the season in SEC Championship game against Alabama and Citrus Bowl against Michigan. Willingness to throw body around in run support could cause him to break down.
DRAFT PROJECTION
Round 1
NFL COMPARISON
Joe Haden
BOTTOM LINE
While scouts have voiced some concerns about Hargreaves' size and recovery speed, you won't find anyone who doesn't admire his competitiveness and consistency of production. Hargreaves has a level of suddenness and explosiveness in his movements that should always have him near the ball. With top-notch ball skills and exceptional instincts that drew praise from Alabama's Nick Saban, Hargreaves possesses the football makeup to become a Pro Bowl cornerback.
He was excellent for the Gators but I meant more over the last few seasons in the NFL. I'm surprised to see he was cut for "lack of hustle." Attitude problem or unable to perform at this level?
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8 minutes ago, Mopreme said:
Former first round pick. I understand that he has not played well but perhaps an upgrade over Levi Wallace? Maybe change of scenery does the trick?
I think pretty much anyone would be an upgrade over Wallace at this point. The question would be, how good is Hargreaves against the run? Since he wouldn't be expected to be a #1 corner here.
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8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
I also think we need a stud wideout, but Allen is getting Brown WR1 numbers. Forget Woods and Watkins: Browns’s got more yards this season than Hopkins, Beckham Jr, Edelman, Smith-Schuster.
Numbers are great, but I'm more thinking a guy that can make the contested catch. Out of all of our receivers, if the ball isn't perfect it's not a catch. If a DB makes contact with them, it's not a catch. And hell, even when the ball is perfect it's not a catch sometimes. I see too many QBs that can just toss a ball up and their guy comes down with it. Russ literally lobbed a ball up in the air into the endzone, two defenders, two receivers grouped together, his guy comes down with it. That kind of thing doesn't happen in Buffalo. I know everyone likes to trash Josh but his guys just don't make plays like that.
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If McDermott wants to win and move the football, it's time to go back to 2018 Josh. Run, pass do whatever the ***** you have to do to win the football game. This watered down version of Josh is no fun to watch. He's not throwing picks, so what? Still lost 2 of the last 3. They've really ruined his confidence. Not sure why you would do that from a coaching perspective. McDermott is pointing out the play calling problems with the long balls on 3rd and short and the lack of Delvin even though he's proven time and time again that if he gets the football enough, special things can happen.
Take the training wheels off of Josh and for god's sake, over ride your idiot OC when you feel the need to. Don't just let it happen and talk about it afterwards.
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I think Daboll should be out. If McDermott can't even correct some of the basic play calling concepts (run here on 3rd and 3, don't try to throw a 50 yard bomb) then he's going to have to find someone that he can trust to run that side of the ball. He shouldn't be trusting Daboll any more. The screaming at the franchise QB thing had me irked at the beginning of the year and I think it was coming from a man desperate to somehow prove he belongs in the NFL. He doesn't. Everyone is starting to see it. You can only make excuses for so long. He calls plays thinking if it works he looks like a genius, instead of just trying to get the first down. He would rather be revered than successful.
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3rd and 3. Deep shot. 3rd and 4. Deep shot. And it wasn't Josh choosing to go deep, the play call on 3rd and 3 didn't have a route less than 10 yards down field.
The Browns game was his worst performance yet. You give Singletary the ball 8 times? You run a sweep with Gore, who's probably the slowest back in the league at this point? Also of note, Allen is much more successful throwing to his left than to his right. Guess which side of the field he's throwing to on those deep shots... it's like Daboll can not dissect film.
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1 minute ago, Protocal69 said:
I see people are finally catching on. I never saw what people saw in the kid. For me it wasn’t necessarily his coverage but I never liked his run support.
Yea it's crazy to think we play Nickel most of the time and our CB2 is that weak against the run.
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1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:
True. But he wasn't good enough for Coach McDermott. He could still be here. Him on one side. Brown on the other. Beasley in the slot ...
I wasn't sad to see Watkins go, you can't rely on him to finish a whole season. Woods leaving pissed me off, but I don't think he had any intention of staying no matter how much money we threw at him.
But to just now attempt to replace Woods with Brown and still have no answer to replace Watkins? That's a personnel failure. Beane can pretend all he likes that you don't need a #1 receiver but his QB would disagree.
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2 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:
So what? 3-4 years then? That's a very long time by NFL standards.
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To a certain extent, I agree with this. If you are going to build your team around defense and your offense gives you the lead with under 4 minutes remaining, that's when your defense needs to come up big. And they didn't.
Then you look at that last drive, Josh was driving again, then they huddle? Not sure what that was about.
Then you have Hauschka leaving 6 points on the field...
Failure at all three phases of the game is a hard pill to swallow, plenty of blame to go around.
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We do not have the talent at wide receiver the Vikes do. When was the last time you saw a Buffalo Bill make a one handed grab? Win on a contested catch? And people wonder where Josh's hesitation comes from. He can't trust his guys to make plays like that. And if he tries to, it often ends badly and then people lambaste him for throwing a pick.
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He's one of those guys that the Bills have lacked all season. A playmaker. Stats are cool but where is the guy on defense that consistently makes big plays like a Fitzpatrick or a Bosa? The roster looks good but it also performs like you'd expect with 80 million in cap space.
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The only thing that has truly failed is this regime's ability to scout wide receivers. Yeesh.
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On 11/6/2019 at 8:44 AM, Mango said:
I actually really like YAC as one of the metrics for how a QB is doing delivery the ball. I don’t think lack of YAC is a good defense for JA, rather an indictment.
Current YAC leaders
1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Goff
4. Rivers
5. Mahomes
The only players Josh beats are back ups, starters who have missed a bunch of time (ie Brees, Tannehill, etc)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm
Didn't realize Russ and Brady were backups. Haven't missed any games either... your bias is showing lol
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I mean we can criticize Allen, he certainly shares some of the blame. But these receivers simply don't attack the football when it's thrown at them. Knox in the endzone was just ridiculous. How do you have that much size on a guy and all you can manage is to fall sideways and let the CB inside to break up the pass? The back shoulder he dropped also. Allen was awful under pressure today. And he honestly didn't see that much of it. His OC doesn't help him either. 5 wide on 3rd and 3 and no short routes run...
For all his issues, he is getting zero help from the OC and secondary players. He can key on Brown and Beasley but opposing defenses are also aware that Allen's secondary players on offense are not a threat.
C
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Hauschka needs to go ASAP. He hasn't been the same since the injury last year. The missed 34 yarder, that just shouldn't happen.
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Wallace has proven against the Eagles and Browns that he is the weak link in the secondary. He is also poor in run support, not physical enough.
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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Someone up-thread brought up trashing some past OCs - Gilbride I think when he was here, and also criticizing Martz? though I don't think he was ever in B'lo.
To me that is absolutely on-point. Gilbride and Coughlin both said that he benefited by being given over-arching guidance by Coughlin, else he got too pass-heavy. As a St Louis Rams watcher (though not a fan), Martz benefited by working under Vermeil and having some of his tendencies checked.
That's kind of where I am with Daboll. I see him as crafting well-designed and creative plays at times. I also feel McDermott has been very "hands off" with him and that he does or would benefit from some constructive oversight, someone who can say "look, this is a matter of record in the league, we are known overwhelmingly do *this* from this formation or personnel group, as a DC I would key off on that, you got to change it up" or (this was a Martz thing) "look, we just don't have the OL hosses to hold protection for 4 seconds against every D in the league, you need to mix it up the passing game with some quick hits and more rushes, you're getting our QB killed"
I'd be curious to know if McDermott had any input for last week's game plan. Definitely ran the ball more than we have all season. It would be good for him to do exactly as you described, kind of act as a moderator. He does it with Frazier on defense.
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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Luka, is that "rush success rate" from the Shotgun, or overall? If the latter, does it give break down rush success rate from shotgun?
Overall. Haven't come across run success by formation yet, I just started combing that site a day or two ago because I often get trashed for calling Daboll into question. I've been on the hunt for some stats to back up what my eyes have been seeing all year. There are some other sites too, but don't seem to offer as in depth stats as that site for free.
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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Luka, what is your source of these stats? I'm interested and would like to poke around. (if it's a fee-for-service, Nevah Mind though)
It's confirming my visual perception and the stats I've heard media toss around.
It seems to me that the problem isn't the use of shotgun - it has its features - but the overwhelming lack of balance in the play calls from shotgun. The D knows we're gonna pass and they tee off. Add in the "tell" of the personnel on the field and it's putting the offense in a handicap.
Can we just not run effectively from shotgun?
https://www.sharpfootballstats.com
Looks like they are a week or 2 behind on some stats but it's a good reference none the less.
On that site we're ranked 3 in rush success rate. We're varied in where runs go. I'm not sure what Daboll's reluctance is to run out of shotgun.
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34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I think there's some good insight here.
I read somewhere that the Bills run out of shotgun a very low (maybe league low?) percentage of the time. I believe there are gaps in our self- scouting and at this point, 8 games in, we have definite tendencies where the D says "these players on the field, gonna be one of these plays". We have, as you say, "tells".
In Daboll's defense, part of that is as you say, limitations on the personnel we have being one-dimensional. We have recently seen some successful plays like a very nice slant route completion to McKensie. It caught the D napping because they weren't expecting McKensie to be used as a WR. If Kroft and Knox can be successful as both blockers and pass threats, and if Singletary is both a run and a pass-reception threat, it will help Daboll a lot in the 2nd half of the season.
I could be off base because I'm not a former coach, but I do tend to believe that Daboll could probably overcome some of the "tells" in our personnel with different play choice. But maybe I'm wrong.
We're 18th in the league in attempts from shotgun but Josh is 35th in passer rating from shotgun.
One of the issues with shotgun is that we almost never run out of shotgun. 2nd and short (1-3 yards) for instance, we pass 75% of the time if we're in shotgun formation. 2nd and short is one of those situations where you can call almost anything and where you'd like to see your play calling be a little more creative than that. I felt like we haven't called nearly enough draws out of shotgun and looks like I was right. My guess would be this is where we try to set up screens but with that kind of tendency you have defenses keying off. 3rd and short again, 64% of the time. Not as bad as second down but you are trending towards an obvious play call for the defense. Surprisingly, things are a bit more balanced on 2nd and 3rd and medium (4-7 yards) but then you look at 1st and 10. 99 play calls from shotgun, by far the most in any given situation, with 73% of those play calls being a pass. So again, really telegraphing to the defense what we're trying to do.
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Eric Wood is a mouthpiece for the Bills organization. Did you really expect him to trash Daboll? As Steve Young would say, c'mon man.
Daboll is predictable because he has too many personnel groupings, too many niche roles. You watch enough film and he has a lot of "tells" as to what he's going to call depending on who's on the field and the situation the offense is in. And when he attempts to break these tendencies, you end up with some of those strange plays that go no where because he doesn't have the correct grouping on the field.
What I'm hoping to see as the season wears on is Singletary being used almost exclusively in the backfield. I think that really cures the issue I illustrated above. He's an all around back and a threat to score whether he's catching the ball or receiving a hand off. RPO should also be something that Daboll calls more. While we don't want Josh to run, the bottom line is that defenses absolutely have to respect his ability to run. That red zone touchdown Singletary scored in the Redskins game showed how hard a defense has to freeze when you have two guys that can run effectively.
With Kroft healthy I'd also like to see 12 personnel used more frequently. Only 30 pass plays called this year in 12 personnel. Knox and Kroft on the field at the same time gives the offense some versatility as I believe both are athletic enough to split out wide and Knox is a great blocker. This would also be a good grouping for some hurry up, which has also been ignored this season for the most part.
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College rules. Nothing more exciting in sports in my opinion.
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Bills win, Gators win.
Buccaneers waived CB Vernon Hargreaves
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
The Bills should definitely have a claim in, just like they should have for Josh. Worries me that Beane has started to sit back and not do anything. This roster is far from complete.