Luka
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Posts posted by Luka
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34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I think there's some good insight here.
I read somewhere that the Bills run out of shotgun a very low (maybe league low?) percentage of the time. I believe there are gaps in our self- scouting and at this point, 8 games in, we have definite tendencies where the D says "these players on the field, gonna be one of these plays". We have, as you say, "tells".
In Daboll's defense, part of that is as you say, limitations on the personnel we have being one-dimensional. We have recently seen some successful plays like a very nice slant route completion to McKensie. It caught the D napping because they weren't expecting McKensie to be used as a WR. If Kroft and Knox can be successful as both blockers and pass threats, and if Singletary is both a run and a pass-reception threat, it will help Daboll a lot in the 2nd half of the season.
I could be off base because I'm not a former coach, but I do tend to believe that Daboll could probably overcome some of the "tells" in our personnel with different play choice. But maybe I'm wrong.
We're 18th in the league in attempts from shotgun but Josh is 35th in passer rating from shotgun.
One of the issues with shotgun is that we almost never run out of shotgun. 2nd and short (1-3 yards) for instance, we pass 75% of the time if we're in shotgun formation. 2nd and short is one of those situations where you can call almost anything and where you'd like to see your play calling be a little more creative than that. I felt like we haven't called nearly enough draws out of shotgun and looks like I was right. My guess would be this is where we try to set up screens but with that kind of tendency you have defenses keying off. 3rd and short again, 64% of the time. Not as bad as second down but you are trending towards an obvious play call for the defense. Surprisingly, things are a bit more balanced on 2nd and 3rd and medium (4-7 yards) but then you look at 1st and 10. 99 play calls from shotgun, by far the most in any given situation, with 73% of those play calls being a pass. So again, really telegraphing to the defense what we're trying to do.
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Eric Wood is a mouthpiece for the Bills organization. Did you really expect him to trash Daboll? As Steve Young would say, c'mon man.
Daboll is predictable because he has too many personnel groupings, too many niche roles. You watch enough film and he has a lot of "tells" as to what he's going to call depending on who's on the field and the situation the offense is in. And when he attempts to break these tendencies, you end up with some of those strange plays that go no where because he doesn't have the correct grouping on the field.
What I'm hoping to see as the season wears on is Singletary being used almost exclusively in the backfield. I think that really cures the issue I illustrated above. He's an all around back and a threat to score whether he's catching the ball or receiving a hand off. RPO should also be something that Daboll calls more. While we don't want Josh to run, the bottom line is that defenses absolutely have to respect his ability to run. That red zone touchdown Singletary scored in the Redskins game showed how hard a defense has to freeze when you have two guys that can run effectively.
With Kroft healthy I'd also like to see 12 personnel used more frequently. Only 30 pass plays called this year in 12 personnel. Knox and Kroft on the field at the same time gives the offense some versatility as I believe both are athletic enough to split out wide and Knox is a great blocker. This would also be a good grouping for some hurry up, which has also been ignored this season for the most part.
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College rules. Nothing more exciting in sports in my opinion.
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Bills win, Gators win.
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18 hours ago, Doc Brown said:
Alex Smith and Matt Moore are decent game managers who's ceiling makes them Wild Card contenders at best. Mahomes instantly upgraded then from a WC team to a Super Bowl contender with some of the most ridiculous throws I've ever seen. Reid has a lot to do with Mahomes development but he''s so talented he'd be successful even if he started as a rookie with the '02 Texans.
That's just not true. Probably one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen posted on this board.
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6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:
It’s only an issue because he’s not nearly as good.
It’s easy to say he’s better than EJ but it’s still a pathetically low bar to set.
You do realize Andy Reid is the reason Mahomes is successful, right? Alex Smith? First round bust? Remember him? Or how about the last couple games with Matt freaking Moore?
The simple folk on this board just can't seem to grasp there's a lot more to football than individual talent. Which is strange, because that's what makes football so great.
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I've been arguing about Josh all day. The hate the minority of this fan base heaps on him is ridiculous. I always used to joke "what's the point of drafting a QB? The fan base will run him out of town no matter what he does?"
If he's good, he's not good enough. If he's great, he could've been better. If he wins well, it wasn't an impressive win. Well this QB does this over here and this QB does that better.
It's a joke.Maybe some of you don't remember the drought? People on here bitching about beating bad teams well, I clearly remember many a year where we couldn't even do that.
Allen has shown progression. Sure, they could let him run wild and throw every once in awhile a la Jackson. He'd probably be successful at it, he was towards the end of last year. How quickly we forget Allen is the one who broke Mike Vick's rushing record over a 3 game span. But how long is that successful? Look at Cam, how beat up he is every year. On IR this year now.
You have to able to command the offense from the pocket in the NFL to be successful long term. Josh is learning that. It was going to take time, coming in under a defensive minded coach.
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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:
Cool...now look at where those numbers came from.
Buffalo has beaten opponents with a combined record of 9 wins, 42 losses. (9-42) They needed comeback victories in the majority of the wins against those weak opponents.
Baltimore has beaten opponents with a combined record of 23 wins, 27 losses. (23-27) They did not need comeback wins in any of those games and averaged 33 points a game against far superior opponents. They smashed the Patriots on Sunday night, and smashed the Seahawk's the week before. Both teams are arguably the best team in each conference.
So, both teams, having Qb's with the similar experience faced much different teams in terms of quality. One has orchestrated a scoring averaging of 33 points per win, the other against subpar challengers averaging 22.5. (Jackson)
One has more yards passing, more yards per pass, more td's, less int's, and higher Qbr facing more challenging opponents. (Jackson)
One has over 600+ yards rushing to the other's 200+ yards. (Jackson)
One of them has more rushing Td's, more +20 runs, and less fumbles. (Jackson)
Has Josh looked better than last year? In some ways, yes, in other ways...no.
Has he looked anywhere near as dominant as Jackson half way through the season? Absolutely not, and if you believe that, you need to watch more football.
And my post went directly over your head. I think Josh threw it into the press box. That's how high it went over your head.
YOU CAN NIT PICK STATS ALL YOU WANT TO MAKE ANYONE LOOK GOOD OR BAD. JACKSON PLAYING WELL FOR THE RAVENS DOES NOT MEAN ALLEN IS BAD.
You know what, I'm done with you guys. The public education system has clearly failed in this country. If you want to take two different players, from different teams, playing different offenses, against different opponenents and say "dUh ThEsE tHiNgS aRe ExAcTlY tHe SaMe" then be my guest. Watch your "favorite" team and hate the QB. Seems logical.
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West: Seahawks Raiders 49ers Rams
West: Chargers Cardinals Broncos Chiefs
North: Vikings Packers Bears Colts
North: Bills Lions Browns Pittsburgh
South: Cowboys Texans Saints Titans
South: Dolphins Jags Falcons Bucs
East: Ravens Bengals Redskins Panthers
East: Jets Giants Eagles Patriots
New Scheduling: 3 Divisional Games (instead of 6), 4 games against like division from other conference (North play North, South plays South etc.), rotate other divisions, one from same conference, one from opposite, and 1 game against same finish from prior season from other division.
Bills Schedule under new structure:
1x each year, rotate home and away:
Lions
Browns
Steelers
Vikings
Bears
Packers
Colts
Then you rotate in other divisions, this example we'll play the South:
Cowboys
Texans
Saints
Titans
Dolphins
Jags
Falcons
Bucs
Then the final game is setup like the two filler games are now. So let's say we finished 2nd the prior year in the North, we'll play the 2nd place Panthers in the East.
I think the advantages here are:
A) Staying within your general region should help ticket sales. Could also cultivate some new "rivalries" while maintaining traditional match ups.B) Not playing 6 divisional games helps with parody. Less likely for a repeat of the Pats dynasty where there's an easy 4-6 wins every year.
C) More entertaining. I'd much rather see 16 unique games each year. And again, parody plays into that also.
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1 minute ago, r00tabaga said:
18-2 under McD
Crazy that the Bills are successful when they execute their coaches' style of football. Who would've thunk it.
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2 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Not all big plays show up on the stat sheet. I'd consider great blocks to be good indivual plays. Did we forget about last years OL?
I'm not so sure the line is even that much better. Allen is still top 10 in hits taken. He's just processing quicker this year. And at times the run game has been non existent. And even if they give Allen 5 seconds, he's had the 8th most drops this year, another area that was supposed to improve with new receivers.
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4 hours ago, Jobot said:
Throwing up a stat like this is so absurdly worthless. This post screams "I looked for a statistic to support my opinion"
Season 1 stats are of an entirely different rosterSeason 2 stats are from a TOTAL rebuild
Season 3 stats... maybe the only true data you can justify using.
But how does this compare to other teams/coaches? Maybe he's right in the middle of the pack.. but we'd never know!
He's from the Wayne Arnold School of Posters Who Can't Post Good.
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34 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
Because you didn’t answer the question
the answer is you don’t have any idea you just want to B word
phillips got more reps because he has been one of the best dts in the league
its a lot like ford actually could easily be starting at right guard but there is a vet that is just playing well
Well again I've provided an example and you can find more for yourself on the various film breakdown accounts on Twitter. You're the one who likes a good fight. You know so much, prove me wrong, I'll wait. Bottom line, he was one of the issues in the run defense. Playing himself out of position. Notice those snaps were mainly in the first half and the adjustment came at half time? Probably not. But it's ok, keep talking.
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3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:
Credibility? He was arguing with a guy who is trying to suggest the only thing separating Allen & Jackson are their supporting casts lol
You must be Wayne's alt account but I'll play along. My original point, back a couple pages, is just because Jackson is good and we didn't draft him, does not mean Allen is bad. And PS, I have watched Jackson, watched breakdowns of him etc. Allen can pass from the pocket. Allen can throw a 35 yard dart on the run. Sorry but I'm more concerned with arm talent and pocket passing when it comes to the NFL game. Gotta be able to operate from the pocket, it's been Daboll's and McDermott's focus. While I may not agree with the way the offense is called or designed, their intention is to get Allen to be productive from the pocket. The Ravens approach is completely different with Jackson.
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53 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:
Those are a much more accurate indicator of how good a quarterback is playing than adjusted net yards per pass attempt, passer rating, etc.
/sarcasm
I’m sorry I thought I was posting on a sports message board, not testifying under oath to Congress. My mistake.
Well, it's a team sport. Jackson has a better supporting cast it seems. Stats are still comparable for both guys. We lost to two good teams and the Ravens lost to the Steelers and Browns. We've only lost to the Pats in our division. The only reason you think what you posted is an indicator of anything is because you're arrogant. Bottom line. That's why not many people here take you seriously. You don't even try to be objective. You felt the Bills shouldn't have drafted Allen and you'll be the first one here to tell everyone how much he sucks, even when we win the Super Bowl.
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Since we're playing the "use manipulated stats to prop our strawman" game, here's a bunch in Allen's favor that give some context to his performance this year compared to Jackson's.
Drops: Allen 8th, Jackson 31st
Drop %: Allen 5th, Jackson 29th
Bad Throw %: Allen 13th, Jackson 9th
Hurried: Allen 14th, Jackson 27th
Hits: Allen 8th, Jackson 41st
Not to mention Josh's 4th quarter rating (best) and the fact that since the beating at New England his passer rating (98.4) is 12th in the league while Lamar's rating over the same period is 77.5 (27th).
But I digress, everyone stick to their narratives lol
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3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:
Once again what do you think a 3 tech dt does in this defense?
QuoteOliver was pushing his man back instead of getting off the block and filling the gap
The bigger question is, what the hell do you think he's supposed to be doing? I love people like you. You ask a question, it gets answered so you ask the same question again. Gap discipline. The coaches have said it, it's a problem. I've even given you an example but please, by all means, ask the same question again. When you get cut back to 18 snaps, I'm guessing you aren't fulfilling your assignments.
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8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Zo, Hyde, Poyer, White, Milano, Edmunds, Smoke, Beasley, Dawkins, Morse, JF.
Morse and Dawkins are play makers now? ? Yea let me know when either of them have a couple of big touchdowns to turn the game in our favor or come up with a game changing sack.
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6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:
Then your not objectively watching the film
What exactly do you think his assignment is?
Let me call Fraizer real quick, we'll go over some of the calls on the all 22, I'll get back to you... ?
You can clearly see on a lot of plays that Oliver is clearly more concerned with beating his man directly into the backfield. On one of Adrian's
big runs, Oliver was pushing his man back instead of getting off the block and filling the gap. You see him turn and reach for AP as he realizes he's running past him. Reduction in snaps pretty much supports the fact that while a freak athlete, he needs to be more disciplined in his assignments.
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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
John Brown has been solid.
That was my point. We have guys that are "solid" but to be a championship team, you need guys that take over games. I'm surprised the Bills weren't more active for a wideout because Allen needs a guy that he can throw the ball up to. If that long ball is a little short or contested, who on the team currently has shown an ability to go up and get it, consistently? From the play calling and Allen's very few shots downfield, I'm going to guess the coaching staff and Allen don't think they have that guy.
And just to clarify in this thread, I love the Bills. I am in no way being negative, even if you don't agree with some of my opinions. My feeling this year though is man, we are one or two pieces away from consistently competing every year.To return to thinking who's going to beat us, rather than who can we beat.
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7 minutes ago, arcane said:
They beat the seahawks in seattle handily, it wasn't a loss.
I'll leave it but I meant Steelers, I flipped them around when typing.
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2 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:
I agree with Daboll being a major issue. I just don’t think it’s fair to act like Jackson doesn’t deserve more credit when compared to Josh. Every team in the NFL takes bad losses such as the Ravens loss to the Steelers. Fans and media simply remember signature wins against quality opponents more than one off bad losses to subpar teams. Allen has yet to pull off a win that makes anyone outside of Buffalo take notice. Plus, Jackson has been better than Allen this season, but that’s a separate debate in and off itself.
I'm not saying Jackson doesn't deserve credit. I never said I didn't like Jackson. I just can't wrap my head around the hate Allen gets sometimes. Athletically he is very comparable to Jackson, the run in favor of Jackson and arm strength in Allen's favor. Both have ability rarely seen in the NFL. Both have broken records in their very short careers. Bills fans don't appreciate what we have currently and as I said, in Roman's system, Allen would have a much different narrative around him.
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3 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:
Results aren’t identical when you look at who they beat. The Ravens are capable of winning in the playoffs, does anyone really believe this Bills team is? This is 2017 all over again.
Your opinion of who the Bills can and can't beat is conjecture. The results are literally the same. Both teams are 6-2. Funny that we as a fanbase think we can beat the Steelers but yet no one gives Jackson any grief for losing to them and playing horribly. My personal view is that Allen would be as effective if not more so in Roman's offense. That's what it really boils down to between us and the Ravens. Coaching.
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7 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:
geesh.
any positive takes ?
Poyer and Hyde or to notch players.
iif there were a wtf emote i would add it here
I tend to agree but not speaking historically, just speaking about this year, we haven't seen them have the same impact that they've had in previous years.
9 minutes ago, Manther said:I agree we need more playmakers, but, we aren’t getting them this year.
The sky is not falling. Picks and sacks are not the only ways to account for “making plays” on D. Brown, Milano, Poyer and Hyde do make plays. They are playmakers. Agreed to disagree on that.
Never said the sky is falling, just that guys that we've watched just take over have all been quiet this year. On defense I still attribute it to not having a great pass rush. Look at the Chargers against the Packers yesterday, their pass rush took over the whole game and shut down one of the best to ever play.
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Daboll is an excellent play caller
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
https://www.sharpfootballstats.com
Looks like they are a week or 2 behind on some stats but it's a good reference none the less.
On that site we're ranked 3 in rush success rate. We're varied in where runs go. I'm not sure what Daboll's reluctance is to run out of shotgun.