Brandon

The post was intended as a rebuttal to the original poster's contention that it doesn't make sense to draft a RB in R1. If one believes great RBs are rare, it certainly does make sense to do so if one also believes that the 1st round prospect in question would become a truly great RB. It becomes another matter entirely if one only expects that player to merely become good.

I have him at a 4.51 from the combine, but I agree, its a significant drop either way. I have no idea what type of surface he ran it on.

It would also seem reasonable to believe that if great Rbs are indeed rare, you should acquire one when given the opportunity as it may be a while before you have the chance again.

He was expected to run a 4.6 at the combine. He wasn't expected to be 'slow', just not to exhibit elite speed. I'm a Razorback fan and have that particular game recorded, along with several others. McFadden is fast, but he's probably not as fast as their #2 RB, Felix Jones.

His bench reps were a little underwhelming, but certainly not indicative of a problem. 21.8 was the average for the LB group as a whole.

Willis ran a 4.37 and 4.38 at his pro day workouts. I already thought the 49ers would take him at 11, but he may not even fall that far now. The only knock there ever was against him was speed, a question he answered at the combine but he has now completely blown that issue out of the water. http://www.nfl.com/draft/analysis/individual_workouts#mich

Yep, its just a rumor. As mentioned earlier, there are reports that he had some type of minor back problem this past season that he played through, yet even this is unsubstantiated. Given that, I think it would have been thoroughly checked at the combine and we'd have likely heard about it before now if there had been an issue.

The point I was making is that we don't even know that there IS a problem. A herniated disk would very likely cause him to fail his physical. If he passed it, he's probably fine.

I don't consider 'unable to touch his toes' to be a major problem.

He either passed his physical or he didn't. 'Disappointed' seems like an odd choice of words. Its possible this is true. Then again, a few teams in the top 10 may be trying to push him down the board with the intent of trading up from their early R2 spots to select him.

Those are the successes, but what of the failures? There are usually about a dozen RBs chosen in R2-4 of every draft. Of those, on average only two or three of them develop into quality starters and maybe another two or three hang around a few seasons as backups. That's a success rate of 25-50%, depending upon how you consider the backups. http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/rb.html On a related note, the drafts of the 1990s were absolutely pitiful at the RB position usually producing only 1 or 2 long-term starters through all 7 rounds. Perhaps the current 'dime-a-dozen' situation is merely an abberation?

That sucks for him. I would imagine that he's now carrying an undraftable grade for at least a few teams. His best option probably would have been to petition the NCAA for a medical hardship and returned for another season. But by signing an agent, he likely doesn't have that option anymore.

He could also be this year's Lee Evans or Mike Williams, both of whom were widely known to have visited the Bills prior to draft day.

Kenneth Davis had over 600 yards rushing for the Bills in 1991 and 1992. Darrick Holmes had nearly 700 yards and was closing in on 1000 yards rushing and receiving combined as a rookie in 1995. The point is that it helps when an excellent starting RB and a good OL have already beaten the crap out of the opposing defense before you come into the game. Turner could be a quality starter who just needs a chance, but he could also be like any number of backups who are largely the beneficiaries of someone else's success.

I think he's probably just this year's version of Tory Woodbury, Ken Simonton, Kamil Loud, Clarence Coleman, George Wilson, Lionel Gates, etc. He may make the team and he may be better than I expect, but I'll believe it when I see it.

These types of pre-draft meetings aren't unusual. The Bills typically meet with a few players prior to the draft every year; if memory serves, its usually three or four. There may be more that we never hear about, though the NFL may also place limits on how many prospects may be brought in for a visit. If true, and it probably is, its a reasonable indicator that the Bills have a high degree of interest in Lynch, but it shouldn't be interpreted as him being their first or only choice.

Even though I think this 2nd tier of RBs is quite weak, for the price tag of a 2nd, I would not be interested in Turner. I don't like trading premium picks for backups. For a 2nd day pick, I think it might be a good deal.

I'd rather trade for Ron Dayne.

I'd have no problems with it and I believe the Bills should trust their scouting staff. He was drafted in the 3rd round for a reason and now its time for him to prove it on the field. They need to add a little competition in the middle rounds of this draft, but I see no need to push the panic button and draft a CB higher than we really need to.

I don't really care about what happened 20 years ago or even 10. These are different players and this is a different scouting staff. The McGahee pick is the only one with any relevance, and I tend to attribute it more toward Tom Donahoe trying to be cute rather than a failure of the scouting department.

Thurman was injured as a junior, not a senior. In fact, he rushed for over 1600 yards during his senior season at Oklahoma State.

The OL additions were certainly needed and will help, but even there the Bills could still stand an upgrade at both C and RG. In the end, I think they have too many players offensively who are just adequate starters. One injury to the wrong guy (Evans) and I think an already mediocre offense will be floating belly up. He doesn't have to be an all-pro or even a 1st round pick, but the Bills definitely need to find another solid, reliable, consistent weapon whether its a RB, TE, or WR who is good enough to carry the offense if necessary.

What do you expect? Arrington plays for the Cardinals. That team would make any RB look bad, as Edgerrin James has found out. James averaged only 3.4 yards per rush this season for the Cards.

That's what worries me about this offense. Besides Lee Evans, what do the Bills really have at RB, WR and TE? Not much. The rest of the players the Bills have at those positions are better suited as backups. This isn't a very good offense, anyway, but if Evans misses any significant time due to injury, its going to get really ugly.

1) RB Marshawn Lynch, California 2) MLB Patrick Willis, Ole Miss 3) WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU 4) CB Leon Hall, Michigan 5) OLB Paul Posluszny, Penn State Those are the top players that I realistically expect to be on the board at 12, with Lynch and Willis being my clear #1 and #2 choices. I don't expect Branch or Peterson to be available, but both would make the list. I also believe that there is a very good chance that Patrick Willis will be selected by San Francisco at 11.