Brandon

JRI111, to say that he didn't carry a full load at Cal really isn't a fair statement and probably isn't even accurate. While it is true that he split some carries at Cal, his total number of catches and carries this past season is very comparable to the other RBs in this draft: Marshawn Lynch: 257 Adrian Peterson: 200 Antonio Pittman: 256 Kenny Irons: 208 Tony Hunt: 304 Brandon Jackson: 221 Lorenzo Booker: 176 Dwayne Wright: 290 Darius Walker: 311 If he's right there with everyone else, I don't think it really matters. As for the injury concerns, no one has been able to provide any proof that he has any kind of back injury whatsoever. If it were true and a top prospect had a major injury problem, it would be well documented by now. The fact that it hasn't been leads me to believe its BS and probably a rumor started by a few teams trying to get him to fall to their draft position.

Your point about the share of carries/receptions between Tomlinson and Turner is an excellent one. If Turner is SO good, why is Tomlinson getting run into the ground? It would seem to be a reasonable question. http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235249/splits/2006 The situational stats on NFL.com tell an interesting story. Late in the game, Tomlinson DID indeed appear to wear down significantly. Look at the 'attempts 21 through 30' category. He averaged only 3.2 yards per carry on the 48 carries in that situation. I'm sure the Chargers were well aware of that stat. So it makes one wonder...why wasn't Turner being used somewhat more heavily in relief of Tomlinson if Turner is indeed as good as the hype? As a comparison, the Bills were getting Kenneth Davis 125-150 touches per season in the early 90s in relief of Thurman Thomas.

You might want to do a little more research on compensatory picks, because you certainly are not guaranteed a 3rd round pick for Turner. The NFL's compensatory formula is based upon the net gain/loss of players signed and, to a much lesser extent, the salaries of those players signed or loss. Under most circumstances, you must have a net loss of players in order to get a compensatory pick. Though I have my doubts, its possible that you might get a 3rd if you lose Turner and don't sign anyone. A major FA signing will completely negate it, and even signing a couple of scrubs will drop it to a 5th or a 6th. You might not even get anything. I agree that AJ Smith probably will not and should not accept less than a 1st for Turner. The Chargers do not have to trade him and as a Super Bowl contender, the insurance is worth more than a 2nd round or later pick to your team. That, however, does not mean that he is worth a 1st round draft choice to the teams bidding for him. They still have acceptable alternatives, primarily in the form of the upcoming draft. The Bills, in particular, should get a shot at Lynch and possibly Peterson, but the 2nd tier RBs such as Pittman, Irons and Jackson are reasonable options as well. Turner is not the best or only choice for the Bills, or the Titans or Packers, either. In the end, I expect that Turner will remain with the Chargers.

I agree with you completely. With both sides having reasonable, acceptable alternatives to making a trade involving Turner, I think it is unlikely that he'll be going anywhere prior to the draft unless someone gets desperate and gives up multiple first day picks or something similar. I think all of this will ultimately amount to little more than window shopping accompanied by some sticker shock for the teams interested in Turner.

I couldn't agree more. There is waaaayyyyy too much Michael Turner around here. He'd be a good addition, but there are some very good alternatives in this draft that should cost no more than a 2nd or even 3rd round pick. The Bills are not so desperate as to *have* to make this trade, especially at the cost of multiple first day picks or the loss of their high 1st round draft position.

That's why I think this whole thing has been dragging on. The Chargers don't need to trade Turner, yet no one else actually needs to trade for him. He's just worth far more to the Chargers than he is anyone else, at least for the time being.

On the other hand, the Bills have alternatives to trading for Turner. They could: 1) Package their 1st round pick with one of the 3rds in an attempt to move up for Adrian Peterson. 2) Sit at 12 and take either Lynch or Peterson. 3) Select another position at 12 and move up from 43 if Lynch falls into the latter stages of R1. 4) Wait until R2-4 and select one or two of the 2nd tier RBs such as Pittman or Irons. Needless to say, I don't think the Chargers have the upper hand at all, unless the Bills are dead set on acquiring Turner.

I'd offer them a 4th this year. No more. The Chargers would never accept it, of course, but considering his contract status and the fact that the Bills have an alternative to Turner in the form of the upcoming draft, they shouldn't offer any more. I'd probably wait until after the first day of the draft to make this trade, anyway. By doing so, the Bills could add a 2nd or 3rd round RB on the first day (as will the other teams needing RBs), reducing the Chargers' bargaining power if the Bills still wished to pursue the trade.

Not quite. Adrian Peterson has had some injuries the past couple of years, but he has still managed to rush for 2,120 yards and 26 TDs the last two seasons.

This is excellent news. I now fully expect Turner to sign with the Titans instead.

No, I don't agree that it neglects a thin defense. The draft is seven rounds long and the Bills have five of the first 110 picks. There will be plenty of opportunities to make significant long-term improvements to the Bills defense in rounds 2-4 if they were to select an offensive player at 12. The same is also true of the offense if a defender is selected at 12. It isn't an all-or-nothing situation. For the record, I see the Bills as being quite weak both offensively and defensively. I would prefer that they select an offensive player in R1, but I don't think they can go wrong selecting a top tier player at any moderate-to-major need position at 12.

LOL, I really don't care if his shuttle time 'stunk'. Post their *official* combine performances in the 40 (including 10 and 20 yard intervals), vertical jumps, broad jumps and their times in the three cone drill. You can find that information at NFLdraftscout.com under 'NFL combine'. From there, you can jump between several years. Both players had full combine workouts. For what little combine performances are worth, Lynch beat Turner in every one of the categories I mentioned above.

Is our offense that bad? Here are some statistical rankings from a year ago for this Bills offense: Total Offense per Game 266.9 29th 1st Downs per Game 14.6 32nd 3rd Down Conversions 31.1% 31st Time of Possession 28:04 30th Rushing Average 3.7 25th Tie Rushing Yards per Game 97 27th Rushing First Downs 82 29th Tie Carries of 20+ Yards 4 29th Tie Rushing Touchdowns 9 23rd Tie Total Plays 898 32nd Number of Punts 92 4th most in the NFL Passing Yards Per Game 169.9 28th Sacks 47 26th I wouldn't call that bad. I would call it pretty damn terrible. The stats basically reflect what we all know is true: this offense can basically be summed up as 'throw the ball to Lee Evans'. But what about the other 800 plays per year? The OL additions will help, but still, adding one good OL and another that is questionable isn't going to suddenly turn the above mess around to any great degree. I still think that this is, at best, a bottom 3rd offense in most of the above categories.

I'm not necessarily going to disagree with you and I certainly would not argue that they can't be successful. But from a draft value standpoint, its virtually certain that they're all going to be rated lower due to their size and perceived inability to be full-time RBs.

The negatives also basically say that coming into the league, he ran poor routes, had questionable hands despite 43 collegiate receptions, and didn't seem too keen on blocking. Those are definitely aspects of his game three years later that the Bills will have to evaluate as well if they want him. With only 7 catches in his NFL career, it does make one wonder whether the Chargers viewed him as anything more than a one-dimensional player.

He's also a junior this upcoming season. That's the problem with next year's draft class. Practically all of the quality prospects will be juniors and while it seems to be a good bet that many of them will declare, its still a major risk to take.

Slaton, Rice and Hart are all about 5'9 195lbs. Its highly unlikely that any of them will be considered every down RBs in the NFL. Slaton is only a junior and I think Rice is as well, I'd have to check. Felix Jones will also be a junior this upcoming season and considering his status as a backup to McFadden, I don't see him leaving early. Darren McFadden, also a junior, is the only sure-fire 1st round, franchise RB prospect on the list and even if he does declare himself eligible for the draft, the Bills will probably have to go 3-13 to have a shot at him.

You and me both. For the first day pick and $30-40 million over the next five or six years, I could really do without this potential deal.

1) RB Marshawn Lynch, California 2) MLB David Harris, Michigan 3) WR Aundrae Allison, East Carolina 3) CB Michael Coe, Alabama State 4) OLB Antwan Barnes, Florida International I cheated a little by picking Harris at 43. He goes 66th here otherwise, but I think he's the 2nd best MLB in the draft and a mid R2 pick. Michael Coe wasn't a choice, either, but he was their pick at 92 for the Bills. Works for me.

I disagree. Last year's #12 pick, Haloti Ngata, signed a 5 year contract worth a total of between $11.9 and $14 million depending upon certain conditions. I'm going to guess that Turner will want, at the very least 5 years, $25 million, with probably $8-10 million up front.

You guys talking about draft picks are getting way ahead of yourselves. The Bills have to sign him to a contract first. He's a (restricted) free agent. That's not a minor consideration in an offseason where Ralph Wilson has already paid out close to $30 million in signing bonuses. Turner would likely cost them another $8-10 million up front, plus another $2-5 million for draft pick signing bonuses, depending on what the Chargers require for compensation. I'll be very, very suprised if it happens.

It doesn't suprise me to hear that. Patrick Willis has always been known to be a 'high character' player.

The Bears actually drafted quite heavily on offense under Dick Jauron. They drafted 11 players offensively on the first day in his 5 years in Chicago. Four were first round selections. By contrast, they selected 8 defensive players, and just two of those were 1st round selections.

Its true that they didn't bring in Whitner for a pre-draft visit a year ago, but we really have no idea if that's going to prove to be a trend or not. They've only done it once.

Its not likely. Meachem is considered the 2nd WR on the board by many at this point and is expected to go in the middle half of R1. Its possible that the Bills could be eyeing him as a target if they trade up from 43 into the latter half of R1, but I think that its highly unlikely they'd do so for a WR.