WIDE LEFT

I think Coach McD is great and I hope he is our HC for years to come. But he badly stubbed his toe in the biggest game of his HC career because he ignored analytics and reverted to his (natural) conservative form. I am not talking about the field goal decisions, although they were terrible and unsupported by analytics as well. What I am referring to here is the overall strategy he employed in this game. Analytics for years now has consistently demonstrated that the “strategy” of controlling the clock via run game etc so as to keep a great QB on the sidelines is a losing strategy. Not a shred of evidence that it ever works, despite many in the WNY media touting this strategy. Far more troubling is McD playing softest zone, force them to take lots of plays and lots of time to score. Of course, this strategy also keeps your offense on the sideline for a long time. It’s a strategy designed to shorten the game. It’s a strategy that prevents your O from producing a lot of points. Herein is the monumental failure. Mahomes has lost only 9 games in his career. The average score of the 9 teams that beat him was 36 points. The only way any team has beat him was to outscore him. McD employed the complete opposite of the only strategy that has ever been consistently successful v KC. Look, we would have probably lost anyway, but we did not go down swinging, because our head coach went with his gut, instead of the hard evidence that analytics provides.

It rewards an organization for developing front office and/or coaches. The development is more important than the final hire

Yes but it wasn’t until 2020 that many in the media woke up to this obvious fact

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail. My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game. I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

For all the snarky, “know it all” responses about how Josh Reed / Sal Cappaccio really got over on the OP, I would invite you to read the article in Buffalo News today, posted on TBD as well, written by News media reporter Alan P. It completely contradicts every thing Josh Reed had to say. It’s says in fact that the local affiliate has plenty of input into what games are shown locally, and their request to change games from what the network originally scheduled “is usually granted”. This of course makes perfect sense since both the local affiliate AND the network always seek to maximize ratings. Makes perfect sense to many, except two Media guys, Reed and Cappaccio, who apparently don’t have a clue how the media works. In fact Cappaccio tweeted out that’s it’s the individual fan who should reach out and complain to the network. Apparently he is unaware that’s the job of a local affiliate, and in fact local affiliates do this all the time. Except apparently the Buffalo affiliate, since their sports “director” Reed is clueless

You wonder if our local CBS affiliate (WIVB) has any inkling as to what WNY viewers prefer to watch. I refer to of course to todays genius decision as to which NFL game to broadcast locally. Would it be Miami v Denver ? Huge implications in that game for Bills fans. How about the much hated Pats v Houston, again a game with playoff implications for Bills? No no, the choice is to broadcast that fascinating matchup of Pittsburgh v Jaguars, one of the worst mismatches of all of today’s games. The stupidity here boggles the mind. Where is the crack channel 4 sports team? Like sports “ director” Josh Reed. No say, no input, no advice as to what game would have the most appeal in WNY. Don’t even notice that your own network chose the worst possible game, or are u that oblivious?

Why in the world would they not show Miami v Denver in Buffalo area. Most critical game on Sunday for Bills fans

Ramsey will soon be the highest paid CB in NFL history. And for good reason. Many thought the Bills got a great bargain when they signed White, and many pundits criticized White for signing that contract, but when u compare these two players you can see the difference between great and pretty good. Ramsey completely shut down Metcalf yesterday, while the reaction by Bills media to Metcalf’s performance v Bills was basically “well he is going to get his”. And of course Hopkins destroyed White in playoff game last year, and again yesterday. That doesn’t happen to Ramsey, who will be paid accordingly. I think it’s safe to say the Bills were very fair to White with the contract they gave him.

Having a hard time understanding Bills defensive game plans recently. They simply don’t seem to tailor their game plan to the specific opponent they play each week. Case in point - Patriots roll into town with perhaps the most pathetic wide receiver group in recent NFL history. One truism about WRs - most difficult thing for a WR is to create separation versus NFL caliber defensive backs. It’s oh so much easier for lesser talented WRs to find soft spots/openings in zone coverage (see Zay Jones). And yet against these talent challenged WRs we played a ton of soft zone - allowing Cam to have a decent passing day. Worse yet was the times they did go man to man. Pats had one decent, experienced WR Sunday - Jacobi Myers. On his big catches of the day he was matched against either are worst cover corner (Taron Johnson) or a safety. Why wasnt our 10 million dollar CB on him ALL day?. He was their number one threat. Take away the best/favorite target. Again not scheming for the specific opponent. Please don’t respond by telling me Jacobi M operated out of the slot. Doesn’t mean White can’t be assigned to him. Last year they matched White up against big time tight ends. It’s not a surprise that the D has struggled this year, when staff doesn’t adjust scheme to specific opponent. Too predictable- offenses coming in here know exactly what to expect. And it shows.

I have long complained about how coaches, including McD, when in a situation very late in the half, deep in their own territory, 1 or zero timeouts, run the half out by handing off to a running back. They can’t reasonably expect a long run in that situation, especially against a prevent defense. A fumble is far more likely than a long run putting the team in field goal position. Yet you see it over and over - hand offs to a running back to run out the clock. WHY NOT TAKE A KNEE. And this is precisely what happened to Chargers yesterday. Very late in first half, deep in their territory they hand off to RB, fumble resulting in Tampa TD and completely changed course of the game. And so the Bills yesterday- 1:36 left in game - Raiders have only one time out, and the choice is to hand off to Singletary 3 times, rather than take a knee. Ridiculous and dangerous. In fact, on the first down play, Allen almost tripped going back, resulting in a very awkward handoff. Could have been a disaster. TAKE a KNEE!!

Anecdotes are not evidence. The numbers are what they are. One person’s death does not change the actual facts.

You don’t have to be a scientist to read the numbers, although that may be a bit of a stretch for you. In any event, I wasn’t the “scientist” back in March who rendered his expert advice that the NFL should cancel/postpone free agency. That was Vic.

That noted virologist, Vic Carucci, is at it again - in pure panic mode. It was Carucci several months back complaining that the NFL should not go forward with the scheduled free agency period because of the virus. Good thing all ignored that genius piece of advice. This morning he is all concerned about how positive tests could affect the regular season, because a key player could miss a big game because of a positive test. Hey Vic, key players miss big games all the time, because of injury. Nothing unique here. In fact, you may recall Bruce Smith missed a PLAYOFF game because of, oh don’t panic Vic, the FLU. Someone needs to sit good old Vic down and explain that this is not Ebola. The risk of death to the age group these players fall into is virtually zero. That applies to their children as well. In fact, for those age groups the flu is statistically more concerning. The five Bills players who reported to camp and tested positive were completely unaware they had even been infected. So take a deep breath Vic, relax a bit, this is not the Black Death revisited. Stick to subjects that u have at least a little knowledge of.

Agreed- as I stated, I don’t care if any player opts out. But that decision is not above criticism, as it’s based on false or faulty premises.

Overwhelming the main stream media narrative on opt outs is they should not be criticized, critiqued or in any way critically analyzed. In fact, much of the media falls over itself in praising players who opt out. Here is a reality check - that narrative is flat out wrong. For people in the age group and health profile of NFL players, the risk of death and/or serious illness is virtually zero. Same applies to their children. Most “infected” players won’t even know they had it. I recall in the 90s Bruce Smith had to miss a playoff game (we lost) because of the flu; while EVERY current Bills player who tested positive were completely unaware that they were even infected. It is fair to compare the actions of the opt out players to that of 50+ year old health workers, first responders etc who do not “opt out”. It should be noted that with all the precautions, devices etc employed by NFL teams, the active players are generally safer than those who opt out. Unless you make the ridiculous assumption that opt outs are going to quarantine themselves for the next 6 months. They will not, so opting out does not reduce their “risk”, which is minimal to begin with; it may in fact increase it. And for a Bills player - tested every day, advanced medical devices, monitoring and supervision- while living in a community with an extremely low infection rate, a decision to opt out is not above criticism. I don’t personally care if any player chooses to opt out, but that decision making process in light of all the actual science is certainly subject to critique.

I would not be surprised if Zay makes that roster. He can look good in practice & preseason. But in a crucial spot in games that mean something - he always comes up small.

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game. This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

Lived there for many years - hotel suggestions would be Palms, Orleans or the Rio. All three are located just a bit west of the strip, and are very close to the stadium.

I love our coaching staff but was puzzled and disappointed in their early decision to go with Jones and give him so many snaps. The only NFL WR level quality he has is his blocking. He cannot separate, average to below average hands, unable to make the tough/contested catch. His absolute worst quality was coming up very small in big situations. Starting with his drop of a winning TD pass in rookie year, to his last game v Pats where he did not go for the ball. Many interpreted the latter as lack of hustle; it was not. It was a big moment in a big game and he did NOT WANT the ball. Zay has reached his ceiling, and it isn’t very high. Duke I believe has much more potential, let’s see what the coming year brings. Duke a rookie this year, Jones was in year 3. Big difference when comparing

O J showed up at Moondoggies two years ago for the Bills playoff game v Jacksonville. He may return today. DON’T ANNOY HIM, whatever you do

Bills bar map still current? Looking for a Bills bar in Victorville Ca, for Sunday’s game, just curious if Bills backers/bar still an option there.

The article criticizes a 60/40 pass to run ratio but that is what the modern NFL is all about. EVERY rule change enacted in the past 20 years has favored the PASSING game; yet u continue to get these run first advocates who are living in the past. Of course it’s great to have balance, every team should strive for that. But it’s the passing game that wins in the modern NFL, and to emphasize run over pass is nonsense, and completely unsupported by analytics. In recent history, Rex Ryan etc, Bills have had one of the leading run games in all of the NFL - where did that get us? In 2019, you pass to set up the run. Successful downfield passing backs the defense off, so your running backs are no longer facing 8 or 9 man fronts. That’s when u run - that’s balance

The whole concept of running to set up the pass is so ridiculous and debunked it’s hard to believe it’s still being put out there. The idea goes like this ; running the ball forces defenses to bring 8 or 9 defenders into the box to stop the run, therefore creating more opportunities in the downfield passing game. The ENTIRE problem with that concept is that if u have watched the Bills over the last 6 or 7 years they have been a run dominant team. Defenses START the game with 8 or 9 in the box, before the first offensive play is even run. So the idea that you need to run to bring up force the defense to load the box is just plain dumb - they are ALREADY there before you run your first play. So “establishing the run” essentially is doing what the defense wants, running the ball into the teeth of 8&9 man fronts.

And you have to be scratching your head over the initial script of plays. Josh Allen drops back and Fletcher Cox comes rolling in to cause the fumble/sack - although Cox is playing next to a guy just called up from practice squad, we don’t double team him, and he beats our guard badly. Same series, 3rd & short, Cox again not double teamed, stuffs the run.

Less than 2 minutes in first half, third and short, OC calls for QB run. Allen fumbles, other team recovers. Sound familiar? Well yes it happened yesterday, but it also happened several games ago, except instant replay showed recovering defender had his feet 3 inches out of bounds - Bills retained possession. Point is our OC did not learn his lesson. Maybe deep in your territory, in a third & short with the D geared up to stop the run, it’s not such a great idea to run the player who has already fumbled EIGHT times this year. He is a QB, not an RB, and having him run into the teeth of a D geared up to stop the run is reckless. In that defensive scenario, even if he picks up the first down, he is likely to take a huge hit. And there’s the risk/reward ratio to consider as well, a concept that our OC doesn’t seem to grasp. Deep in our territory, less than two minutes, 70+ yards to go, why risk your QB fumbling, and/or your QB health, for the sake of picking up 2 or 3 yards and first down that still leaves you with a long, long way to go. Allen at that point was completing close to 70% of his passes, and a scramble off a passing play is a whole different thing than a designated run into the teeth of a defense. If you insist on a run there, give to the guys who are paid to do just that. That’s not to say the designated QB run should be removed from the playbook. It’s just to say you have to more selective in its use, considering everything including field position, game situations, risk/reward etc etc This is twice now our OC has called this play at the worst possible time, leading to disaster and near disaster. And it could have been worse, Allen in that situation is exposed to huge and potentially injury causing hit. Time for McD to have a chat with this reckless OC.