Dan

Several posters were making the comment when EJ first hurt his knee that we probably wouldn't see that big of a drop off by going with Thad, because EJ was a rookie playing like a rookie and Thad was essentiallythe same. As it turns out, I think they were right. Thad has filled in and given similar production as EJ likely would have (a little better or worse - its up for debate). Well, now with Thad hurt and "possibly" not starting, I think its fair to say that Thad, Flynn, Tuel.. is there that big of a difference in their skill levels at this point? Maybe, but probably not much. Thad should know the offense better. But, Flynn might know the speed of NFL defenses better, Tuel is largely unknown and as such should be the least likely to step in. So I guess in the end, does it really matter who starts? Either way the defense and RBs are going to have to win this more thatn the QB.

Where his historical knowledge as a fan and ardent follower of the Bills could most likely gie him an advantage is in validating any models or data he or the team develop. As we all know, statistics and numbers can be developed to support just about any argument. The key, therefore, is developing the right numbers to show/predict reality. Because he likely has an intimate knowledge of the real workd success of past players/games/decisions, it might be easier and more efficient to validate any statistics he develops. For example, it's easy to say let's use x, y, and z to gauge the success of a player, draft pick, whatever; but does that actually translate to real world success. Because he knows our history, perhaps he's already ahead of the game in knowing which numbers are better? The primary reason to use analytics, for me, goes well beyond when to punt and when to go for a 1st down. It's how do you identify the next Fred Jackson from all these small, unheralded schools? The next Stevie Johnson? Also, to better understand what are other teams likely drafting strategies. Also, I can see it used in developing better game plans. How do you accurately predict an opponents tendencies taking into account the current game situations, what they'll be doingbased on your moves and players? Not just 80% of the time they run on 3rd and 2. In other words, fairly high level data analysis that results in predictive models that more often are correct. Not to mention how to maximize profit by making parking spaces 5inches shorter so you can squeeze in 2 extra spots per row. And decreasing beer sizes by 5% will yield 10% more profit without people noticing... type crap.

I believe the name you're looking for is... Ernie Adams. Linky thing

Precisely! The Bills need a QB. Plain and Simple. This comment could go in the "what pieces are missing" thread, as well. But until we have a quality QB, we'll have problems - OL that can't block, OC that can't call plays, WR that can't get open, etc. There's one thing we need to consistently beat average to below average teams and to go toe to toe with the best teams in the league; a QB. Thad is obviously not that guy. I like him, but we all know he's not a top tier QB. Will EJ become one? I reckon we'll see... in time.

I think us losing CJ for the game is less of a hit than Brees losing Graham. So, in that regard, we come out on top. And with luck, CJ is healthier for another big game next week. The secondary still has their work cut out for them with their big WRs and Brees, but Graham being out should make it just a bit easier.

Week 8: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Sunday, October 27, 2013 at 1:00pm TV Network: CBS (TV Map) Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf DirecTV: 709 Bills Radio: On the call: John Murphy (play by play), Mark Kelso (analyst), Joe Buscaglia (sideline) Flagship: Buffalo – WGR550 (550AM); Toronto - Sportsnet 590 The Fan; Rochester - WCMF (96.5) and WROC (950AM); Syracuse - WTKW (99.5/WTKV 105.5) Sirius: 134 ================================================================= Game Preview: The New Orleans Saints have had plenty of time to move on from their first loss of the season, which came in heartbreaking fashion. Coming off their bye week, the Saints' focus shifts to trying to prevent the Buffalo Bills from moving back to .500 on Sunday at the Superdome. Buffalo (3-4) avoided a third straight loss with a 23-21 victory at Miami last Sunday. Fred Jackson shook off a knee injury to total 85 yards with a rushing TD while ex-Dolphin Dan Carpenter kicked a pair of fourth-quarter field goals, including the 31-yard winner with 33 seconds left, to rally Buffalo from a four-point deficit. Read more at ESPN game preview... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scouting Report: Week 8 (from Buffalo Bills.com Chris Brown) NFL.com Video Preview Jill of the Week: Emily NFL.com Game Center Teams Stats: Bills Saints Total Yds/Game.... 333.3 397.7 Total Rush.............140.4 86.7 Total Pass.............192.9 311.0 Points/Game.......... 22.7 26.8 Time of Poss.......... 27.7 33.5 ---------------------------------------------- Yds/Gm Allowed... 380.4 338.0 Rush Yards........... 123.6 114.0 Pass Yards........... 256.9 224.0 Points Allowed........ 25.4 17.2 Source: NFL.com Injury Report: Buffalo Bills NAME POSITION INJURY WED. THU. FRI. GAME STATUS Jackson, Fred RB Knee DNP LP LP Probable Lawson, Manny LB Hamstring DNP DNP DNP Doubtful Manuel, EJ QB Knee DNP DNP DNP Out Spiller, C.J. RB Ankle DNP DNP DNP Doubtful Williams, Kyle DL Achilles DNP FP FP Probable Source: BuffaloBills.com New Orleans Saints NAME POSITION INJURY WED. THU. FRI. GAME STATUS Graham, Jimmy TE Foot DNP DNP LP Questionable Greer, Jabari CB Not Injury Related DNP - - - Harper, Roman S Knee DNP DNP DNP Out Ingram, Mark RB Toe DNP DNP LP Questionable Jenkins, Malcolm S Back FP FP FP Probable Jordan, Cameron DE Ankle DNP LP LP Questionable Moore, Lance WR Hand FP FP FP Probable Strief, Zach T Ankle DNP LP LP Questionable Sweeting, Rod CB Hip FP DNP DNP Out Walker, Tyrunn DE Knee DNP DNP DNP Out Source: NewOrleansSaints.com Practice Status Game Status DNP = Did Not Participate in Practice Out = Player will not play LP = Limited Participation - Less than 100% of normal reps Doubtful = 25% chance a player will play FP = Full Participation - 100% of a player's normal repetitions Questionable = 50% chance a player will play Out = Player will not play Probable = 75% chance a player will play (-) = Not Listed = No practice status available (-) = Not Listed - No game status available The Odds: Line: Saints -11 Over/Under: 49.0 Source: The Linemakers Up to date lines... if you're in Vegas. My Take on the Matchup: Why does it always seem the Bills are facing a well-rested team coming off their bye week? I guess if they hadn't just beaten the Dolphins, we could complain more. But, this week, we face one of the better teams in the league with Drew Brees looking as good as ever. It's difficult thinking the Bills can pull this game out. Yes, they've scored over 20 points in every game for an average of 23 points per game. However, the Saints are averaging nearly 27 points per game. And the Bills defense is allowing nearly 25 points per game. So, it's hard to see the Saints not getting their points. For that reason, the key to this game is for Thad and the Bills offense to score enough to keep pace with Brees and the Saints passing attack. The best shot is going to be establishing the run game and keeping Brees off the field. The Bills have one of the best rushing games in the league and even if they get behind early, they need to stick with it. Defensively, it would be really nice for Super Mario to continue his dominating play from last week. Pressure on Brees could be the additional push we need to keep our offense on the field. I'll be watching: 1. CJ Spiller and the run game. Will he play? If so, can he be effective with limited reps and a hurt ankle? Can Freddie continue being the heart and soul or will his knee be too much this time? And finally, Choice should get increased reps this game. Let's hope he responds. 2. Thad the Impaler. He needs to continue improving and be more accurate to the receivers. He can also do some damage in this game with his feet. Hopefully, he has the room and takes advantage of a defense that can give up some runs. 3. Super Mario and the defensive line. With a truly great QB that can pick apart any secondary, it's imperative we get pressure on Brees with the defensive line. Certainly, the Saints have seen the tape on Mario from last week and will have a plan to contain him. If they do, can the other guys pick up the slack? 4. Can we stop the run! Once again, we're facing a team that's not great at running the ball. Last week they let the Dolphins run for entirely too many yards. If Sproles and Thomas get going, we could be in serious trouble. 5. Coaching. Marrone and company have a full task this week. Matching game plans against the Saints will be a huge challenge. Will they be up to the task? This is not the week to give Brees an extra last minute drive before the half. Can they get the team fired up to play while minimizing the costly personal foul penalties? It's going to be a bell weather game for our coaching staff and this young team, I hope they're up for the challenge. Go Bills!!

I say finally show up... meaning at the right time. 3rd and longs, they need to get pressure and get off the field. What good does it do to hold the early down run game, if tou just let the QB get comfortable on 3rd? I just hope we get pressure when it counts. Thanks for all the thanks. If anyone things of any info I could add/include for future weeks, just let me know.

Week 7: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Sunday, October 20, 2013 at 1:00pm TV Network: CBS (TV Map) Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Tasker DirecTV: 710 Bills Radio: On the call: John Murphy (play by play), Mark Kelso (analyst), Joe Buscaglia (sideline) Flagship: Buffalo – WGR550 (550AM); Toronto - Sportsnet 590 The Fan; Rochester - WCMF (96.5) and WROC (950AM); Syracuse - WTKW (99.5/WTKV 105.5) Sirius: 128 ================================================================= Game Preview: Coming off a bye week following consecutive losses, the Dolphins hope they've fixed some of their issues as they look for their best six-game start in 10 years Sunday against the visiting Bills. Miami got off to a 3-0 start before losing 38-17 at New Orleans on Sept. 30 and 26-23 to Baltimore on Oct. 6. A win in their AFC East opener will put the Dolphins at 4-2 for the first time since 2003. The Bills are expected to have leading rusher C.J. Spiller and hope receiver Stevie Johnson is available, while quarterback Thad Lewis is set to make his second start despite the signing of Matt Flynn on Monday. With rookie starter EJ Manuel out at least another four weeks because of a sprained right knee, Lewis looks to build on a solid debut after he connected on 19 of 32 attempts for 216 yards with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to lead the Bills' rally last week. Read more at ESPN game preview... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scouting Report: Week 7 (from Buffalo Bills.com Chris Brown) Bills' Focus: Coach Marrone DolphinsPreview NFL.com Video Preview NFL.com Game Center Teams Stats: Bills Dolphins Total Yds/Game.... 344.2 316.6 Total Rush.............148.8 69.6 Total Pass.............195.3 247.0 Points/Game.......... 22.7 22.8 Time of Poss.......... 27.3 27.0 ---------------------------------------------- Yds/Gm Allowed... 395.0 393.0 Rush Yards........... 124.2 105.4 Pass Yards........... 270.8 287.6 Points Allowed........ 26.2 23.4 Source: NFL.com Injury Report: Buffalo Bills NAME POSITION INJURY WED. THU. FRI. GAME STATUS Brooks, Ron DB Foot LP LP FP Probable Johnson, Stevie WR Back LP FP FP Probable Lawson, Manny LB Hamstring LP LP FP Probable Lewis, Thad QB Foot FP FP FP Probable Manuel, EJ QB Knee DNP DNP DNP Out Spiller, C.J. RB Ankle DNP LP FP Probable Williams, Mario DL Hip LP LP FP Probable Williams, Kyle DL Achilles/Illness DNP FP DNP Probable Source: BuffaloBills.com Miami Dolphins Name Position Injury Practice Status Game Status Dion Jordan DE Ankle Full Participation in Practice Probable Jason Trusnik LB Rib Full Participation in Practice Probable Mike Pouncey C Ankle Full Participation in Practice Probable Koa Misi LB Shoulder Full Participation in Practice Probable Brandon Fields P Back Full Participation in Practice Probable Nate Garner T Knee Full Participation in Practice Probable Dimitri Patterson CB Groin Limited Participation in Practice Questionable Dannell Ellerbe LB Shoulder Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Will Yeatman T Shoulder Full Participation in Practice Probable Brandon Gibson WR Hip Limited Participation in Practice Questionable Cameron Wake DE Knee Full Participation in Practice Probable Chris Clemons S Knee Full Participation in Practice Probable Source: NFL.com Practice Status DNP = Did not participate in practice LP = Limited Participation in Practice - Less than 100% of a player's normal repetitions FP = Full Participation - 100% of a player's normal repetitions Out = Player will not play (-) = Not Listed = No practice status available Game Status Out = Player will not play Doubtful = 25% chance a player will play Questionable = 50% chance a player will play Probable = 75% chance a player will play (-) = Not Listed - No game status available The Odds: Line: Dolphins -8.5 Over/Under: 42.5 Source: Rant Sports Up to date... if you're in Vegas. My Take on the Matchup: By the numbers, this week's game looks to be pretty evenly matched. Both teams are averaging close to 23 points per game; however, the Dolphins are holding their oppenents to 3 fewer points than the Bills' defense. And therein lies the key to this game, the Bills D has to find a way to hold a well-rested offense. The Dolphins don't have a great running attack. But, you can bet they've spent the last two weeks working on that and stressing it in their meetings. And we all know the Bills have a way of making very average players look like Pro Bowlers. So, I wouldn't take their run game lightly. If the Bills can hold them in check, they have a good shot at getting to Tannenhill. Tanny has looked good, at times, but he's also looked like the young player that he is. Hopefully the Bills line can get after him and cause some of these mistakes. If they do that, hold the Dolphins run game to their season average while forcing a few turnovers in the passing game, things will be looking good. Offensively, I expect the Bills to do what they've done. Be average. Expect Thad to look a little more comfortable, but he's still going to have his moments. Hopefully having Stevie back in the lineup will give him another option to look for rather than running and looking confused. Stevie, gets open and I expect he will today. The big question marks for me are... can Thad avoid some of the poor decisions he made last week? And can Hackett avoid those situationally poor decisions that he's done every game (run right, run right, short pass, punt). I expect a close game. However, I expect the better rested, home team to win. But I'll be watching: 1. The Bills D-line. Can they get some decent pressure on a young QB for once? 2. Kiko. 3. Will the Dolphins target the one-armed Gilmore like the Bengals did? 4. Thad. Can he continue to look as good as his last showing? 5. CJ Spiller's ankle is supposedly feeling better. Let's hope he finds some open space. 6. The punt coverage unit. Will they blow another game and face the wrath of Kiko as he eats their heads one by one? Go Bills!!

I agree. I'm thinking the best thing about having Flynn may just very well be the veteran presence he brings.

I know the more snaps EJ gets this season, just helps him learn the game and the offense. However, given the way the season is currently going, there's absolutely nothing to gain by rushing him back. I'd rather he take the time, heal completely, and hopefully learn how to avoid these hits in the future. For EJ at this point in his career that seems more important than an extra game's worth of play time.

I get it, being 45 myself, I've had all those same feelings about the Dolphins. But the 70's were forever ago and the futility of last 10+yrs just seems greater. At least in the 70's we had OJ. What have we had since 2000... Beldsoe? Plus the way the Pats have beaten us is just embarassing. Add to that the Jets complete domination and manhandling of our teams for that last 4-5 yrs along with the constant ball washing of Brady, its just nauseating. It'd be curious to add up the numbers, but I just feels like we've been way worse and much more dominated by the Pats than we were the Fins in the 70s. And here we sit at 13 years and counting with a new FO, new coaches, new players with really no end in sight.

I have a very good friend who is a diehard Fin fan. 8-9 years ago the majority of our football talk was trashing the others team and talking up our own. Now... we trash talk the Jets and Pats and generally talk well of each others teams. He would much rather see the Bills win the division, if the Fins can't. And I would rather see Miami win it, if we can't. Yes, the decade of fail has changed the very fabric of our division and the rivalries within, at least for us.

I've said it before, and I'll continue to say it... these running QBs that seem all the rage lately don't last long in the NFL. They either get injured or defenses game plan to shut their running down. When either happens, they have to pass. Problem is, they never developed the ability to really pick a defense apart passing because they've relied on running out of their problems. One of the greatest running QBs of all time, Vick, has how many playoff wins? Super Bowls? Bottom line, if you want a consistently good team winning in the play offs, you need a pocket passer. I truly hope Marrone and Hacket know this and don't forgo quick flashes of success and highlights for what all really good teams need - a true passing QB.

But that's all part of it, the intricacies of the rules make it so no one, not even players, truly know what's good and what's not any more. So, the refs can call whatever they want to suit their whims at the moment. To this day, no one really knows what the tuck rule is because they invoke it at arbitrary times. What's considered a "football move"? You can't dive at a QBs knee, but you go for the sack by grabbing his legs. There's so many judgement call, subjective rules in the books that no one understands them. Add in inconsistent calls and it all leads to a contrived game story. Regardless of when the hold, as pointed out in this thread, ocurred it was a blatant hold. It should be called. Period. To say it was the last play; therefore, just let them play is just confirming the fact that the refs pick and choose when to enforce penalites to encourage certain out comes.

The NFL is becoming increasingly difficult to watch because the officials are so arbitrary in calling plays. They're either grossly incompetent or being directed to "influence" prescribed outcomes. Case in point, Dallas/Skins game, on the punt the ball bounces back and hits the Dallas guy in the ass, Redskins fall on it. Their ball right? Nope, the Dallas player was blocked into the ball, thefore Dallas retains possession. What?! The 2 players were engaged, sure, but neither was watching the ball and the ball bounced back, into them. Absurd. In any and every game there's multiple completely missed or made up penalties, usually overturning big plays. And in most instances, favoring the perceived good story line. Manning is this year's story. Every week, I watch Denver games with a life long Broncos fan and even he is glad to see the favorable calls the Broncos are getting in every game because it seems the NFL wants Manning to get one more ring. Now, can the NFL make Brady throw a perfect pass on that last play? Can they make dude make a great catch? Can they make Greer come up just short of breaking the pass up? No. So, the players still have to perform. But, the NFL can certainly allow certain teams the opportunity to make those game winning plays by ignoring certain calls or fabricating others. It happens in every game, every week. Stupid, inconsistent, and arbitrary refereeing is just part of today's NFL. It's good for ratings, its good for dollars, so I guess its good for the league.

Flying from out west to Buffalo, he'd have to connect through MSP or DET. My guess, he was on a Delta flught. As most of the other would have connected through Chicago.

Mostly because he led all receivers in the preseason in receptions and yards and Hogan has done nothing but conistently drop passes. I'd say it's worth at least a few series in a game to see what he can do.

At this point, my biggest concern with this team is the coaching. 1. To the original point about Hogan... how can he still be out there with all his drops and Easley on the bench. Every fan watching the game can see that Hogan doesn't have it. Why can't the coaches? 2. This continual running up the middle, off center. It's just not working. Stop it. Every fan watching the game can see it. What can't the coaches. 3. That 4th and goal play. Really? First of all, after 3 tries, take the easy FG, tie the game and keep your offense's confidence flying high. But, if you do run a play, why pick a play you rarely ever run that calls for a back up lineman and the fullback to be e 2 receiving options? Whe does that make sense? 4. OT. you can't go conservative. I understand that an interception ends the game, but punting from your 10 isn't much better. The QB had just had a great drive to tie the game, you gotta give him a chance. The run, run, pass conservative plan is just wrong there. Once again, I see us losing a game that just looked winnable. But our coaching and game plan just came up lacking when the young players needed it the most.

I honestly don't see how anyone can say this team feels different. For me, its the same old same old. If the offense looks competent, the defense blows; if the defense looks competent the coaching blows; if there's a ritical 4 and 15, you just know they'll let them convert it. This team has perfected snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Nothing really is changing other than the names on the sideline.

That's what I was thinking too. Thad was actually throwing deep pretty good. Why not take a chance? There's almost zero chance of picking up a 1st down with those 3 plays.

is it me or did Hackett just give up in OT?

wow. the more yards they need... the easier it is to convert. that's nothing short of pathetic.

Once again, the Bills proving that they can make anyone look like a future HOF player. Just getting so tiring.

Unfortunately, I'm a Bills fan. I don't deny it, I can't escape it. So, yeah, everything I do is a little biased towards the Bills. This game, however, I truly think just comes down to the Bills. The two teams are fairly evenly matched. So, its up to the Bills to win this and not lose it. And to win it, I think Thad is going to have to score some points with a good defense coming after him.

Thanks.