Kirby Jackson

He is not

You did nice work here!! I was coming here to complain about it but your research was great. The only thing that I’ll push back on is that it depends on the makeup of your roster. When you’re paying your QB $43M you should “find” some money from ST only players. The Bills could have found $5M(ish) of cap space if they replaced guys like Matakevich, Neal and Jones with rookie contracts. One of my good friends was a longtime STer with the Pats. He was a backup LB but primarily played speci teams. As his career went on it became harder and harder for him to stick on the roster because he was making more. He had numerous undocumented concussions because he was fearful that an injury would cost his spot to someone cheaper. He eventually got cut after receiving a 4 game suspension for adderall (which he took to drive across country to his new team). He was replaced by a rookie.

I agree. I have a feeling that there is a big offensive move out there. Maybe it is Hopkins or Henry or Jeudy

I don’t completely disagree. I’d say “above-average” but not elite against the run. He was/is a very good player. Edmunds will be tough to replace. They just couldn’t justify $18M AAV. I’m surprised that he got that when guys like Pratt got $7m-$8m AAV (or whatever).

Edmunds STRENGTH was his pass defense. If you’re always leading, as the Bills are, that’s more important. His length and athleticism won’t be easy to replace. The Bills will take a step back there. Losing Edmunds ABSOLUTELY makes the Bills worse. If the offense improves by enough, it hopefully won’t matter.

The Bills had the 4th best rushing defense in 2022. He wasn’t “a liability.” Edmunds is a very good player that will be tough to replace. I think that $18M AAV is too much for the Bills but I’m not going to pretend that this is a good development.

This one hurts. Edmunds was asked to do A TON in that Bills defense. He’s coming off his best year. That length and athleticism will be tough to replace. Wish him the best in Chicago and hopefully we do well in replacing him.

That’s crazy!! He’s in the last year, unless you pick up his 5th year option. Jeudy is worth about a 4th. Oliver straight up

Ed Oliver straight up

Oh, I’m not surprised. It’s just not how I would have allocated resources.

Martin was a good signing. He did a nice job for the Bills. I am also good with reworking Hines’ deal. He can help this team. I don’t understand the Matakevich deal. He is a really good ST player. It feels like a poor use of resources to sign a vet ST coverage player. You signed Neal last year for that and Taiwan Jones probably comes back as well. If those guys can’t play on offense or defense you should get someone cheaper to fill those roles.

Just to clarify, I’m not suggesting to be like NO. My point was just, you can pretty much always make it work, if you want to. The Packers could have kept Adams, the Chiefs Tyreek, etc… The Bills are in position, if they desired, that they COULD keep Edmunds, Poyer and Motor. It doesn’t seem like a great allocation of resources but they aren’t FORCED to let them go. They need to allocate resources differently because this hasn’t “worked.” The cap can be managed however you want it to be assuming the owner will write the big checks. Ross is doing it now. Benson has done it for a decade+. The Pegula’s have been willing. This is where ownership matters. Mike Brown is notoriously cheap and he’s about to start running into these situations. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles it. That was my entire point.

Lol, the reason that Ramsey and Wagner are going and gone is because the Rams realize that hey aren’t good enough!! If the Rams won 13 games last year, they, along with Robinson would still be there!! You don’t need the number to say “$100M” you need to be able to minimize the cap hits within there. The Bills gave Von Miller 6 years and $120M. They took a 2022 cap hit of $5.15M. It isn’t real!! I’ve been preaching that for a decade in here. I used to see LOTS of resistance. Now, the overwhelming majority of people are in agreement. You can sign, and keep, pretty much whoever you want and need. It is a matter of “is the juice worth the squeeze?” The Bills could EASILY keep Edmunds, Poyer and Motor if they wanted. They know that they need some changes so are going to allocate resources differently. Tyreek is in Miami because they got a haul + space. If they wanted to keep him, they could have. The same goes for Adams. The Packers weren’t good enough with him. They took assets and went in a different direction. It’s not as complicated as some make it out to be. The Bills can EASILY have the space for whomever they want. It’ll just cost more out of pocket now. It’ll hurt future cap years, but like the Saints, you can indefinitely push that out. Instead of biting the bullet and eating Thomas’ big number, they’ll extend him to lessen the blow. @nedboy7what SPECIFICALLY do you disagree with? Happy to discuss in further depth…

It’s really not “that” real. As long as the owner wants to keep stroking checks, you can continue to kick the fan down the road. Eventually you have to add extensions to the restructures (like the Saints are doing with Michael Thomas). You can pretty much have as much space as you need for as long as you want. It’s just expensive to do it.

Getting to FA is a win for him. I was hoping that the Bills could retain him on a decent number. He’s looking at a number like Roquan IMO (5 years $120M $45M guaranteed).

He’s coming off of a really good year (his best). That’s why someone will pay him a bunch of money. His length and range will be really hard to replicate. Edmunds is a very good LB.

That’s a fair concern to me. It probably is a moot point as he likely won’t be there. The TEs are more interesting because they are probably considered “better prospects” than the WRs or OL likely to be available at 27. They all have holes though. That’s why they are different from the Bijan conversation. He’s pretty much “can’t miss” imo. The TEs have ability but potential downside. Is Kincaid a better idea than Hyatt, Downs or Schmitz at 27? This is such a weird draft to me. It’s not a good class (certainly at the top). The Bills still need to find contributors so what is the best allocation of resources. This isn’t a year where they can spend a 3rd and get the same production that they got from Bernard as a rookie.

I’m not advocating for it but am certainly open to it. Say Bijan is 5 on their big board and they project him as an all-pro. If the highest WR or OL is 43 and they project him as a quality starter, what makes more sense? To me, it’s MUCH better to get a cost controlled star than a decent OL or WR. I can draft them when the value might be there (rounds 2 and 3). It isn’t likely to matter though because Bijan is probably gone. He’s just an interesting discussion because he’s a can’t miss star at a low value position. He is probably the safest player in this draft. The TEs are probably a more realistic conversation and they all have some questions.

Remember that Will Anderson said that he is the best player that he faced in college…

Great perspective GB & I think that I agree in this draft. Would you rather Bijan or 44 & 75? That may be a debate (although I think that he goes before 27). I think, for me, 5 years of control, and a potentially great backfield, would be my preference. While I want WR / OL, I am starting to believe that the quality at 27 won’t be there.

For some context, the draft value chart would say that Atlanta at 44 & 75 is roughly the equal value to 27. That would leave the Bills with 44, 59, 75, & 91 in the top 100.

I think that the Bills may move off of 27 (up or down). The 1st round WRs are likely gone. There may be some OL fits that would be a bit of a stretch. It’s possible that the “best value” in terms of overall ranking is Bijan. He’s a top 5 player in this draft. It’s a low demand position but likely a need for the Bills. The TEs may be “decent value” at 27. Again, it isn’t the Bills biggest need but they could find ways to make the right player help the offense. It’s, potentially, a matter of need vs. quality of player. How far, if at all, off your big board do you go to fill a need? That’s what we are (potentially) dealing with. For me, I’d stick to my board as closely as I can, weighted towards positions of need. I’d be committed to helping the offense though. That’s why I said I would take Bijan/ TE > defense.

They weren’t perfect in 2019 but I’d argue, had a shot. They had to have everything go wrong vs. the Texans to lose in OT. The next week the Texans blew a 24-0 lead at KC (who went on to win the Super Bowl). They would have needed things to go right but it wasn’t like the Jags playoff game where they should have been happy to be there. That 2019 team was probably the 5th or 6th choice to win the SB when the playoffs started.

If it is the last 4 years, he has failed. They have had 4 years of Super Bowl talent. I’m not naive enough to think that means 4 championships. At the same time, 1 conference title appearance is a failure.

If it is ONLY the last 4 seasons (I should have read more carefully) it has to be falls short. Only the Covid year could you argue that they made it as far as they could’ve/should’ve.