Kirby Jackson

I said that he had the second highest yardage total of any rookie TE ever. Where’s the lie?

Was the second rookie TE (behind only Ditka) to go over 1,000 yards? What do I win?

He is the highest rated WR prospect in pro football outsiders history. There’s no holes in his game. That makes him different. He isn’t “a good guy.” He has as good of a skillset as any WR that they’ve scouted and a HOF dad (who was a fraction of his size). Odunze and Nabers are great prospects as well but a tier below MHJ.

None of them were picked in the top 10

….”and Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant and is starting in the Super Bowl.” 😂😂 I gave you an over under on MHJ as a rookie. Feel free to GO ON RECORD with your prediction of his rookie year. Don’t talk about it be about it. No one said anything about “pre-ordained.” Here are some things that WILL happen. Caleb Williams will be a very good pro. He will be a top 10-12 guy by 2025. MHJ will be a top 10-12 WR as a rookie. Travis Hunter will be a really good pro when he comes out after next season. Wembanyama will be dominant as he fills out. Etc…

I believe that there may be. In the regular season they worry about execution and can be a little more cautious because they generally have more talent. Over the course of the year, that will lead to a good record. In the playoffs you need to score more. It isn’t about keeping games close. Surround Josh Allen with weapons and try to score 35+. You’ll only need a few stops then. You can’t play in the playoffs to win 20-17. You negate the advantage of Josh Allen when you do that. KC has figured that out over the last 6 years. Forget about “ball control” or “time of possession” or “balance” or “field position” in the playoffs!! Put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands and get out of the way. Pedal to the floor

It’s a 🔥🔥🔥take to say that he will be the 5th or 6th best WR in the class 😂. That’s absurd. He’s 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs when he gets off the bus as a rookie. If you read that report, he’s the highest graded WR that Pro Football Outsiders (who I think we all respect) has ever scouted. In case you hadn’t noticed, scouting has evolved quite a bit in recent times 😂😂. Technology and analytics have changed things quite a bit from when Brien Taylor and Tony Mandarich were prospects 😂😂. I get it now. There’s an older generation that questions “can’t miss” because they remember things 30+ years ago. That’s not what happens anymore. When someone is “can’t miss” in 2024, you don’t miss. Andrew Luck was can’t miss. He was elite for a short period of time. If you say, “yeah but Trevor Lawrence on here” you can find my takes dating back to college when I said that he was the most overrated prospect that I had seen. When you brought up random failures from 30 years ago I dismissed your opinion.

Lol, we have reached the 🔥🔥take portion of the thread. I’ve seen every snap of his college career. He’s generational and a lock. Again, they almost certainly can’t get that high but don’t be ridiculous on MHJ. You lose credibility. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/marvin-harrison-draft-scouting-2024/ This is the exact notion that I’m challenging. I’m obviously using an extreme example but I don’t agree at all. If the Bills hit big on WR, whatever else they do won’t move the needle. They should swing big, whether they trade up or take 2 in the 1st three rounds. In order to pass KC (and others) you have to outgun them. You have to trade scores. The Bills have proven over and over that they can’t get the late stop. Instead of worrying about that, score more points and it won’t matter. if you have a top 15ish defense (which they always do) that’s good enough. You will win because of Josh, nothing else. Give him everything that he needs and then worry about whatever else.

In terms of the 2025 2nd remaining in the hypothetical, you could use that for WR OR DE. Obviously it wouldn’t be used twice. To be clear, I think that the trade is like .0001%. It was more about my philosophy on how to fill out the roster. I think that they should absolutely invest 2 of the top 3 picks on WR this year. As you said, if Diggs goes after this year you need to replace him too. This draft is really deep at WR so the value at 60 & 99 this year is almost certainly greater than it will be next year. I’d be good with something like Thomas/Franklin & Corley/Wilson. For some reason I feel that the Bills may roll the dice on Xavier Legette. Beane hasn’t been scared off by high ceiling/low floor prospects in the 1st (although maybe that philosophy has changed post Elam). In terms of 2025, you can’t focus on it now. You are thin in cap space. You’ll be in a much better position in 2025 in terms of cap space. If you draft a guy or 2 in the 5th that hit and can be starters, great. Maybe Morse’s replacement is one? If not, you can worry about that in 2025. That was my point. The window will still be open in 2025 but you’ll have more $ to work with then. They can’t worry about finding the 2025 replacement for a guy that will be on the roster in 2024. Now, if you want to cut Von as Gunner suggested, you’d have to get a pass rushing edge now (I don’t see any way that they eat that this year even as a post June 1). Otherwise, your focus this year is on ensuring that you get a bite at the apple in 2024.

Fair, and I have little confidence in Von as well. I just don’t think that you have a choice. You can’t throw good money after bad. You hope to get a bargain FA or get lucky in the draft. Unfortunately, I agree on the ability to get up there. It just can’t happen. The only argument that you could make if you were Arizona is that you’re getting: a young CB that was a 1st round pick recently, a young borderline Pro Bowl MLB on a great deal, you’d still have a 1st (albeit later), you’d pick up a 2nd and a 1 and 3 next year. In theory, you could turn pick 4 into 6 starters. I wouldn’t offer that package for Nabers or Odunze. I like them both but that would only be for MHJ. The hypothetical trade up was more my opinion on roster building. I’d rather address WR with an elite option than worry about anywhere else. It’s the point that you made about the best 21 around Josh. That is all that I care about. Give him the best weapons and that’s how the Bills take the next step. They will only win because of him. Help him

You’re unequivocally starting Von this year no matter what. You don’t have the assets to go elsewhere. You gambled on that when you signed him. You better hope that the flashes from late in the year become more regular. He needs to be a productive player regardless. That’s just what it is. Forget about 2025!! The window is now. You’re in Josh Allen’s prime. The focus is on 2025. You’re drafting the other 8 guys to hopefully grow into those roles. That isn’t your focus though. That just happens. Your focus is on giving Josh the best weapons in the game. If you do need to replace Diggs next year you’re doing so with a number 2. MHJ would obviously be your number 1. You can find a guy in FA or round 2 to do that. Von you’ll be replacing either way. That is happening regardless of what you do this offseason. The odds of Brown getting extended >>>>>>>>> Brown cut. I’m not worrying about that. The Bills clearly love him. You can draft a center in round 2 (if you don’t go WR or DE) or play Bates/McGovern there. That isnt a reason for concern now. All of these fears that you have for 2025 are minor. Some are there either way (ie replace Von) while others are in your head (long term RT).

Of course I wish that my backup DEs were better than Shaq and Jonathan but you need to make sacrifices somewhere. It NEEDS to be the depth where those sacrifices are made. The Bills have focused WAY too much on overpaying for rotational players (Settle, Ford, Harty, Neal, etc). I don’t think that you understand MHJ as a prospect. He is Calvin Johnson with better route running. He isn’t “likely to be good.” Again, this is HIGHLY unlikely but I’m not scared because of Watkins. MHJ might be the best, and safest, WR prospect ever. I’m not nearly as concerned with depth anymore. You’re going to still have 8 picks to fill out defensive depth. You’ll find at least 2 starters that develop out of that group (long term). Those 8 (or whatever makes the team) will fill the back of your roster. That’s where the sacrifices need to be made. The middle to back of your roster shouldn’t be filled with $4M cap hits for Harty and Settle or $3.3M for Neal. Those are the kind of guys that get replaced in rounds 3-7. Your top 5 priorities this year are WR opposite Diggs. That’s all that really moves the needle.

That feels like about what the price would be. Of course Bernard is good and cheap, that’s why you’d have to give him up in the above scenario. You’re worried about the middle and back of the roster as well as 2025. They will have enough cap space to bring back Dodson, Jones, Shaq and Rapp. You’ll need to replace Epenesa, Settle, Floyd, Phillips and Ford with cheap vets (like Shaq) and late round picks for 2025. Again, Ryan Van Demark as your swing OT isn’t why KC always beats you when it matters. You can’t stop them. Stop worrying about stopping them and start worrying about outgunning them. When you have a pitcher that throws 100 MPH you shouldn’t be focused on improving his curveball. Try to get that 100 MPH to 105 MPH. Do what you do best, better. Worry about your own strengths not trying to cover minor blemishes. In this hypothetical: QB - Allen RB: Cook (Ty Johnson behind) WR- Diggs WR- MHJ Slot - Shakir TE- Kincaid TE- Knox LT - Dawkins LG - McGovern C- Morse RG - Torrence RT - Brown DE - Rousseau DE- Von DT - Oliver DT - Jones LB- Dodson LB - Milano CB - Douglas CB - Benford Slot - Taron S - Poyer S - Rapp At some point you hopefully get Tre back as well. You try to bring Dane back as CB depth if you can make the numbers work. A lot of that will depend on a Diggs restructure. If you restructure Diggs you can certainly do it with the other moves I suggested. If not it’ll be tight (using the Greg Tompsett projected cap moves for next year).

The Bills need to stop worrying about minor holes or future problems. They aren’t losing to KC because of OT depth. They need to start outgunning people. If they are going to win a Super Bowl it is because of Josh Allen and his weapons. They aren’t built like Baltimore or SF. This isn't meant to be a balanced roster that would be a borderline playoff team with Kyle Allen. They’re more like the KC teams of the last 6 years. They go as Allen goes. Upgrading at WR is more important than the next 4 biggest needs combined. You re-sign Rapp, Shaq, Jones and Dodson. You can afford that. You fill out the rest of your roster/depth with the remainder of the draft.

A hypothetical “would ya”: pick 4 (assuming MHJ) is on the board for Elam, Bernard, pick 28, pick 60, 2025 1st and 2025 3rd Obviously that’s a hefty price but I’m trying to come up with something that would be considered. I saw something like this on twitter. At first I was like, “that’s too much” but after thinking about it that probably makes the Bills the team to beat. You’d re-sign Dodson to play next to Milano. I think that I would make that deal.

I’m thinking that I’m not going to watch. I say that kind of thing from time to time but always relent. This year is different. I did not watch one snap of the championship games and haven’t turned on NFL Network in a month (did watch senior bowl practices). This year is dead to me. I have about $400 of squares and hopefully someone texts me that I won. I don’t care who wins. I don’t care who plays well. I don’t care what this does for anyone’s legacy. Hopefully everyone has fun with their family and friends. This game just isn’t for me. I’ll be ready for the combine. ✌️to the 2023 season

I understand the perspective. I just don’t necessarily agree. Every win matters in terms of playoff seeding. I’d just assume that the Bills don’t worry about something bad potentially happening and they attack. Score as many points as you can. Perhaps, it has the reverse effect and the Bills score so many points that he doesn’t need to finish the games because of the lead? That’s a different way to avoid him taking hits.

So sorry to hear this 😔. Your family will be in my thoughts 🙏🏼🙏🏼.

Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may.

It has felt like Xavier Legette to me. The Bills have taken swings on high ceiling lower floor prospects in the 1st. I could see 2 WRs by 128. Maybe something like Legette and Polk?

🙏🏼🙏🏼

No, I read the words as they were written. The defense does revolve around the Safeties’ ability to QB the defense. Their ability to play chess with the QB frees up everyone else. FWIW, I have a good friend that played for Belichick for years. His favorite player was Ed Reed. BB would show clips, often, of how Reed’s mental games suckered QBs as good as Manning and Brady. His ability, both physical and mental, completely changed the game. The Bills have that, to a lesser degree. I don’t think that we disagree on the importance of the position. I think that we just disagree on the investment that should be made. I’m not willing to just bank on, “they’ll develop someone” because if they don’t, the whole defense crumbles. I think that they NEED a higher floor there whether it be in FA or the draft. They need to invest there to ensure that it doesn’t flop. If it flops, the defense fails. If they swing and miss on a rotational DL, so be it. You sign/play a guy like Shaq Lawson instead. You can throw a rock and find rotational guys. They aren’t picking early enough for an impact guy so they are looking at rotational guys anyway.

At no point did I say, “s is more important than pass rush.” That’s not what those words mean. What you quoted does not say that. The Bills defense DOES revolve around the safeties. You can’t survive there with bodies. You need high end players. Their ability to disguise and confuse QBs allows the DL the time to win. That’s how this defense has been built. Obviously you need pass rush. You’ll have Oliver, Rousseau, Von, etc… Pass rush is the most important part of ANY defense. There are guys all over that can contribute on the DL. We signed Floyd and Poona late. They added Joseph in season. There are guys everywhere. You should invest a couple of picks in DL & obviously resign Jones.

Please quote where I said that. Hint: you’re going to be looking for a while

The Bills have committed resources to DL (1st on Oliver, 1st on Rousseau, 2nd on Epenesa, 2nd on Basham, huge contract to Von, decent late contracts to Floyd & Ford). They haven’t had to commit resources to S because they have 2 guys that belong in the WOF for 7 years. The defense revolves around them. They need a high end player there. Next to WR it is their biggest need. They can’t just have bodies back there.