Kirby Jackson

The Browns are so interesting to me. They have a ton of talent and the worst contract in history. Does Watson stink now? Will he ever be the guy that he was 5 years ago? If he’s 80% of that guy, they’re a Super Bowl favorite.

I expect a massive step forward for Kincaid but that feels too obvious. If the Bills don’t make the Super Bowl, I expect him to be playing dodgeball, vs. Micah Parsons, in Disney World, in February. Benford feels like he has broken out to me. He’s absolutely still ascending but I’m not counting him because a late-round, small school player, that has started from day 1, feels like an overachiever already. He is on a Jabari Greer-type of career arc. He was a bit of a flyer that will develop into a top 15ish corner. Dorian Williams is my pick even though he won’t see a ton of snaps if everyone is healthy. He feels like a guy that could be a really good LB in this league. That game he played against USC has me convinced.

FA not currently on the Bills: Xavier McKinney Yosh Nijman D’onte Foreman Bring back: Daquan Jones Cam Lewis Shaq Lawson Matakevich 1 year prove it deals later in the process: Marcus Davenport Michael Thomas

Give me Xavier McKinney on a 3 or 4 year deal. I like the fit next to Rapp. You can take another guy in the draft late & resign Cam Lewis for cheap. He can be depth at S & nickel. This would complete your defensive backfield. Douglas, Benford, Taron, Elam, Rapp, McKinney, Cam Lewis, Hamlin, versatile late round DB

The 2018 QB draft was WIDELY speculated to be an all-time great draft. That was known at least a year out. You can go back through the archives here (at least I think) prior to the 2017 draft and see how many advocated for a QB in 2018. I was one of them. The person that should get lots of credit is @thebandit27 for banging the table for Mahomes pre-draft. He LOVED him. 2 1sts will almost always afford you the opportunity to obtain a high end QB prospect. That holds especially true in a year, where your team was carrying the HIGHEST DEAD CAP NUMBER IN NFL HISTORY. The Bills knew that they weren’t going to be very good in 2018. Their pick was going to be, at worst, the middle of the round. That coupled with an additional 1st was going to be enough to get you in striking range for Rosen, Allen, Baker, Darnold, Lamar or Rudolph (depending on how the 2017 college season played out). I am in agreement that McDermott’s allocation of assets is backwards. Helping Josh is priorities 1-5. I saw this on Twitter: Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs).

I’m sorry if it’s coming off as challenging. We are actually in agreement on most of this. A lot of guys will be added post draft. Where we differ is “jumping in.” The Bills aren’t going to sit out and let the market settle before trying to address holes. They are going to be targeted and thoughtful with their budget. If As an example, if McKinney is their target, and that contract from above is where they’re comfortable, they’ll get that on the table ASAP. If he commands more than where they’re comfortable, they’ll walk away. That’s the difference in what we are saying. They aren’t going to wait for it to settle; they are going to be aggressive while sticking to a budget. They aren’t going to let guys that they want go off the board without taking a shot.

I’m not overshooting. It’s math. If you add 20 guys between late FA and UDFAs (which would be a TON) you still need to add 10 pre draft. Of the 50 guys currently on the roster, that already accounts for a whole bunch of camp fodder.

I just don’t see it. I see. This as further validation that it is a philosophy change. We aren’t going to be allocating solid resources to rotational guys. CB certainly isn’t an option because you don’t have a starting spot available and you traded up in the 1st, 2 years ago for your 4th CB. S just isn’t impactful enough to wait on WR. You’ll likely sign the 2nd starter there next week. The philosophy is let’s win with Josh. Until Kincaid, the only 1st round pass catcher to catch a pass from Allen was Kelvin Benjamin. Let’s load up around him to make the strength of this team stronger. The goal is no longer to keep the game close with KC and to try to have the ball last to win. The goal now is to have the most explosive offense in football and see if they can keep up with you. The Bills want to be be the aggressor, not react and adjust to the aggressor. WR2 is the top priority and it isn’t even close.

I think that the Bills have like 50 guys currently on the 90 man roster. You can’t go to the draft, even with 11 picks, and fill 40 spots. You probably need to add 20 guys between now and the draft (at LEAST 15). Even if you use all 11 picks, that is still 9 guys that you need to sign in that post draft, late free agency period. It’s just math. Some of those guys will be cheap, back of the roster types (like Cam Lewis for example in my scenario). You are also going to try to find some guys that can start or play at least half of the snaps. In my scenario it’s McKinney because I think he’s an elite cover guy. If you like Curl I get it. CGJ is washed but fine. Either way, you aren’t going to be stuck needing to add 29 guys after the draft, choosing only from, whatever is left in FA. We are in complete agreement that arming Josh is most important.

No that doesn’t sound better because it still isn’t true. Being honest would sound better. He didn’t think Tre was more important than Mahomes. He thought, what many at the time thought, that the 2018 draft was THE draft to find a QB. He drafted an all-pro corner, used the extra 3rd to move up to get a WR that didn’t work out, and gained a 1st in 2018 to ensure that he would get a QB. He thought, “an all-pro corner, an extra top 100 pick and a 2018 1st to use to secure my QB is better than a toolsy raw QB prospect out of Texas Tech or a sexual predator out of Clemson.” I know that you’re trying to use revisionist history to alter the memory of some but Watson was widely regarded as the top QB in that draft with Trubisky as his competition for that spot. Mahomes was a late riser with great skills but a style that hadn’t translated to the league at that point. But go ahead and keep making up facts and trying to pass them off as truths. If you wanted Mahomes, no one will begrudge you. Just don’t be disingenuous and mislead people to fit your narrative. The Bills got their QB the next year, and, with the exception of Mahomes, he is the top QB in the league. The trade worked out fine. Not for nothing, but the draft value charts that NFL teams use, show that the Bills received a premium from the Chiefs to go to that spot. Again, let’s deal in facts. This place is so much better when people are truthful.

Well said!! That’s kind of my goal for a number 2 QB. I would have preferred Tyrod but he likely comes with a bigger number. Trubisky is fine to hold down the fort for a month. I didn’t think much of Kyle Allen. This feels like a definite upgrade and raises the floor for the team. Last year, the Bills entered week 18 with a chance to be the 2 seed or miss the playoffs (at least I think that was still the case going into week 18). The point being, a month where you go 1-3 vs. 2-2 can be the difference in the season ending or having a shot at the Super Bowl. When you have Josh Allen, I think backup QB is important. You can’t blow the season if he misses a few weeks. No he wasn’t. We get it, you don’t believe DBs matter. Don’t just make stuff up though. Mahomes was picked 10th. Tre White was picked 27. The Bills received a 3rd and an additional 1st in that trade.

Lol, thanks!! I didn’t sleep much last night. With all of the chaos of yesterday, I decided to spend my time awake on the Bills. It took some time!! The thinking was, “now that the roster is turning over, what’s the best way to allocate resources?” For me, it is, and has been, about surrounding Josh with what he needs. The Morse move was surprising but they should still be “good” on the OL. His weapons, in this scenario, would be BY FAR, the best that he’s ever had. If Odunze is the guy that I think he can be, he’s a future #1. It allows you future flexibility with Diggs (should you want/need it). Thomas is a slant guy, that is dangerous in the red zone. Health/attitude can be concerns but he might help you when it matters. The defense may not even take a step back but they’ll be different. Rapp and McKinney have different skills. Hyde and Poyer were interchangeable in a lot of ways (and really smart). The disguising and communication in the back will be different. The LBs will be dynamic. The DL actually is better in this scenario IMO. I expect them to rotate a little less than they have but it makes more sense to have rotational DTs on rookie deals than Settle/Poona contracts. You can’t go into the draft with $40Mish of cap space and a zillion holes. You have to fill some now. It’s just not feasible to have 40 open roster spots and wait for the draft. They’ll be very active next week but disciplined. I think Daquan Jones gets done before FA starts. McKinney is my big target early. Here is a contract prediction for him: https://atozsports.com/new-york-giants/projecting-xavier-mckinney-contract-2024-nfl-free-agency/#gid=ci02d4d607f00025fb&pid=usatsi_22204142

You lost me at “hoping we do nothing until after the draft.” Obviously that isn’t smart or realistic. They already added back Edwards, Haack and Rapp in addition to Trubisky. They are filling starting spots on affordable contracts. The Bills will be active in FA. They’re going to fill multiple spots prior to the draft. They’re positioned now to chase ANYONE that they want. If they want Chris Jones or Christian Wilkins, it is possible. It doesn’t mean that they’ll go crazy but they’ll explore all options to fill out the roster. They aren’t going to wait until the draft, limiting the available player pool. Depending on what happens in FA, the draft options also change. If the Bills add a few DL and DBs in FA it opens their options. As an example, they COULD trade 28, 3rd, 5th & 2025 1st to move to 9 for Odunze. They’d still have 8 other picks to fill out “depth.” Where that depth is needed depends on FA. They’ll likely need one more “starter” from the draft in round 2 (S or DL that plays a lot of snaps). From there you continue to add to your depth. I’ll take a run at a mock offseason. For the purposes of this, I’m extending Dawkins & Taron along with Josh’s restructure. I’m (planning on) leaving Diggs contract alone. FA: - Xavier McKinney (starts next to Rapp) - Daquan Jones (starts next to Oliver) - Shaq Lawson (just over vet min) - D’onte Foreman (just over vet min) - Yosh Nijman (swing tackle) - Matakevich (just over vet min) - Cam Lewis (just over vet min) Post June 1: - Marcus Davenport (1 year prove it) - Michael Thomas (1 year prove it) Draft: Pick 9: Rome Odunze (WR) (traded 1st, 3rd, 5th, & 2025 1st). 2nd: Kris Jenkins (DT) 4th: Xavier Thomas (edge) 5th: Jacob Cowing (WR) 5th: Sione Vaki (S) 6th: Frank Gore Jr. (RB) 6th: Matthew Jones (OG) 6th: Sundiata Anderson (edge) 7th: Jowon Briggs (DT) Way too early 53: QB (2): Allen Trubisky RB (3): Cook Foreman Gore FB (1): Gilliam TE (3): Kincaid Knox Morris WR (6): Diggs Odunze Shakir Thomas Cowing (returner) Shorter/Shavers OL (10): Dawkins Edwards McGovern Torrence Brown Nijman Anderson Van Demark Jones Doyle DL (11): Von Rousseau Oliver Daquan Jenkins Davenport Thomas Anderson Briggs Shaq Jonathan LB (5): Milano Bernard Dorian Williams Spector Matakevich DB (9): Douglas Benford Elam Taron Rapp McKinney Vaki Cam Lewis Hamlin ST (3): Haack Bass Ferguson

Any idea where that will have us in terms of cap space? I’m too lazy to look it up.

He’s better than Kyle Allen. If Josh misses a month, Mitch could win 2-3 games. Good enough for me 🤷🏻‍♂️

The Chiefs? They scored when they needed to again. Forget about “stopping them.” Try to outgun them. The moves from today showed CLEARLY that’s the direction that the Bills are moving in. We will see if it works I guess 🤷🏻‍♂️

We have TRIED to invest in the pass rush to stop Mahomes. A 2nd on Epenesa, 2nd on Basham, 1st on Rousseau, 1st on Oliver, sizable contracts for Floyd, Ford, Settle and Phillips. We gave Von a MASSIVE contract. When can we agree that loading up there has NOT worked to pass KC? That’s 4 straight years that they have advanced further. I agree that the pass rush is important. NOTHING is more important than giving Josh Allen weapons. If this team is going to win a title it will be BECAUSE of Josh Allen. Give him everything that he needs to try to outgun teams. The fact that the Bills have resisted for this long is maddening. If you have an elite fastball, don’t spend so much time working on your curve. Make you elite fastball faster. Play to YOUR strength and stop reacting to your opponents!! Make them keep up with you and stop trying to keep them close. It hasn’t worked.

This is kind of where I’m at. The beauty of an offer sheet is where you can take advantage of the current team’s cap situation. It’s what the Bears tried to do to the Bills a couple of years ago with Bates. The Bills did match but it wasn’t an easy decision. Any offer that the Bills can make, the Patriots can EASILY match if they value the player at that level. If they let Digger walk, it’s probably because you overpaid for him. Otherwise, you’re just negotiating on their behalf. If you like Dugger, as we know they do, go ahead an take a run at him. Be mindful though, that an early offer would tie up your cap space through the first week(ish) of FA. You’ll miss lots of other opportunities in that span. If the Pats then match, you’re left holding the bag. It doesn’t make a lot of sense unless he drags into FA for a little while and the Bills miss other targets.

Those have been the 2 that I keep ending up with in mocks. Milton to me is a fine lottery ticket. The skills are there but the tape erratic. This line of thinking I can’t get behind. If any starting QB is out for an extended period of time your season is at risk. We need to stop looking at it as “if Josh goes out we are done.” Of course we are. If Josh misses a month, the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 could be the difference in home field or missing the playoffs completely. Look at the last week this year. You’re trying to find a guy that can keep you afloat for a month.

I hate it; I want WR. Enough trying to build to “stop” Mahomes. It’s the definition of insanity at this point. Try to outscore and outgun everyone. Give me 2 WRs by pick 129.

Easy, extend Douglas and leave Poyer & Tre (try to get a pay cut from Tre but if you don’t start cross training him at S). You can get out of Tre’s contract next year for $4M otherwise. No big deal. I agree that this draft is all about helping Josh. I’d rather draft 2 in the first 3 rounds than sign “a guy.” I’d take Worthy and Legette (for example) > Worthy and Bourne on a bigger contract. If they sign a guy, fine but think that the bigger impact will come from the draft than WRs in FA (excluding Pittman). The ONLY thing that matters is giving Josh players. We have tried over and over to build a team to “stop Mahomes.” Forget that strategy. It’s time to focus on outgunning them. Build around Josh and try to score every possession. Stop trying to “keep games close” and “kee up.” It’s time for them to try to keep up with you.

It is an awful idea and warranted the response. It’s not as bad as when people (or person) wanted to trade Mario Williams for John Skelton but it’s up there. The Bills need MORE stars, not less. Milano is probably their 2nd best player. They don’t get better subtracting him!! 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️ The Bills are FINE in terms of cap space. If you don’t believe me, I suggest that you watch Greg Tompsett’s take on the cap this offseason. The Bills will be able to add a couple of decent players (maybe Chinn/Dugger & Curtis Samuel) while bringing back Daquan Jones. They may even be able to fit Epenesa or Dane in there. I expect Lawson back as well. In the draft, you’re adding a WR early and probably another (potentially early). You’re adding a S early (if you don’t sign one in FA). You’re using the rest of your picks to fill out the DL and depth. The Bills will absolutely be a better team, on paper, in 2024 than they were in 2023. See above No one is talking about running it back. We are talking about improving the weapons for Josh (duh) and getting younger and cheaper on the DL. The only “hard” decision that the Bills really have is bringing Von back. You hope he rebounds some and can clear that next year. They are fine. The sky is not falling (at all).

Maybe the Bills should consider trading Josh Allen? I saw a guy suggest picks 1 & 9 from the Bears. They can “reset the clock.”curious to get your thoughts on this @All I Need is Hope

What happened to this place?

He was always a guy that I thought would be the perfect 1A type. He’s just a good player and leader. If you could make the draft compensation work it would make sense for a lot of reasons. You still need to draft at least 1 cost controlled guy but McLaurin would be a great piece (especially if you could get him for a 3rd or a 4/5 + Elam).