Kirby Jackson

If all are healthy: Diggs Rookie Kincaid Shakir Samuel Cook Knox Hollins I think that this feels right. The rookie is going to need to stretch the field because no one else does (besides Kincaid kind of). Samuel and Shakir will make plays with the ball in their hands.

He won’t get 160 again because they don’t have to force the ball to him anymore. That change has already started!! Weeks 9-18 he had 70 targets. That extrapolates to 132 on the year. That’s how Brady used him. This coincides with the emergences of Cook and Kincaid. I expect Diggs to be more effective with his targets. That’s about 8 a game. I’m not imagining anything. It’s math. Yes, I’m expecting Samuel to be used as a weapon. That’s who he is. I’m very familiar with his game (and love the signing). His impact will be in touches. He isn’t a traditional WR. He’s a playmaker. He will catch screens, get carries and run routes. Beane said that they needed more explosion. That’s what he is. He is not the downfield guy, route technician or zone buster. He’s a guy that’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie or a poor man’s Deebo. The guy that they are targeting in the draft is going to be with the intent of being the number 1 as soon as 2025 (potentially). WR cap numbers dictate that you can’t have a top WR and Top QB. KC let Tyreek go and then invested early picks in Moore and Rice. They will probably swing again in the top 65 picks. This is THE great WR draft. The Bills, and many other teams, are looking for a number 1 WR on a rookie deal. They aren’t trying to get the next Justin Shorter. They let Gabe walk because they wanted to UPGRADE at that position. They haven’t done that yet. They’ve met with every top end WR in Indy. I think that it’s way, way, way more likely that they move up for a WR than wait past pick 60 for the guy. The days of ignoring WR are over. You fill out your roster with bodies. In the first round, you draft pass rushers, QBs, WRs, OTs and CBs. That’s 2024. The Bills will not be taking QB or CB. They do not currently have a starting spot at OT either. They have a need at pass rusher for another guy in the rotation. That’s the only other place that they can consider in round 1 and the value isn’t really there. The value and need intersect at WR. Maybe it is AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy? Maybe Thomas slips? McConkey is a guy that they seem to like a lot. Maybe they push their chips in and try to get to 9 of Odunze or Nabers slips? The Bears need picks. Trying to outlast KC has failed as a strategy. You’ve given up 33 PPG to them in the playoffs (at least I think that’s the number). That’s the scheme as much as the bodies coming in and out. Your focus shouldn’t be on trying to outlast them. It should be on outgunning them (and everyone else for that matter). The defensive scheme and current talent (assuming that they continue adding bodies & a S) will be no worse than middle of the league. McDermott always has a top 10 defense. The goal should be to have a top 1 offense to go with that top 10 defense. That’s how they’ll take the next step. The next step happens because of Josh Allen’s greatness. It’s no longer okay to surround Josh with bodies and hope that he elevates them all. Surround him with actual talent.

Absolutely It is an evolving point though. The positional values have changed over time. QB is always going to be at the top of the market. QB aside, WR & pass rusher are the next most expensive positions. OT and CB would come after that.

This holds especially true if you take the guy in round 1 as opposed to round 2. That 5th year option is incredibly valuable for a WR (especially when you’ll be deep into Josh’s current deal).

Curtis Samuel wasn’t signed to be the number 2. He was signed to add some explosion. As an Ohio State fan, I’m extremely familiar with his game. He will be in the backfield, the slot and outside some. He’s what they wanted from McKenzie or Harty with more running ability. He absolutely won’t be the number 2. That will come in the draft. They are trying to add a guy with number 1 upside, on a rookie deal. That’s how business is done now. In terms of targets, Diggs isn’t getting 160 again. There are another 146 targets not on the roster. It will be something like 130 for Diggs and 80 for Shakir. 110 more for Kincaid, 50 for Cook, 30 for Hollins and 55 for Samuel. 110 for the number 2 WR not on the roster. There will be another 55 or so spread across everyone else (including Knox). That has them at 620 pass attempts. Last year was 579 (with an emphasis on running the ball). 646 is Allen’s single season high. Feel free to allocate as you see fit if you don’t like my allotment. To recap (620 targets): diggs - 130 wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110 kincaid - 110 Shakir - 80 Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries) Cook - 50 Knox - 40 Hollins - 30 everyone else - 15

We COMPLETELY differ in how this team gets over the hump. The investment that they’ve made in defense vs. offense is insane. Trying to outlast Mahomes doesn’t work!! It hasn’t worked. Try to force them to keep up with you!! Why do we think a rookie WR will be our 5th or 6th most targeted player? 😂😂 For context, the Ravens leader in targets was a rookie, Vikings 2nd leader, rams leader, Texans leader would have been without an injury. The Bills number 2 WR is not on the roster. Why should we think that the number 2 WR will be 5th or 6th in targets? 😂😂

He has talked about the need to be more explosive. The rising WR cost makes it imperative. It’s tough to have a really expensive QB & WR. Josh will always be paid near the top of the market moving forward. They met with all of the top guys at the combine too. Generally that’s decent foreshadowing.

Because he has no choice but to have learned from it. They let Gabe walk. He was the number 2 with no competition. The guys that they have added have improved the depth at the position. There’s still the glaring hole at number 2. I also think that the Bills days of 12 personnel and balance are over. You’ll see some because the talent dictates it but this isn’t Dorsey’s offense. I believe that the Bills are going back to, give Josh the ball and get out of his way. Giving him a top end WR to go with the rest of the skill players helps achieve that. This is especially true when Diggs appears to be on the back 9.

I like the Samuel fit but not as a number 2. They can use him like SF uses Deebo. He’s a chess piece. He isn’t going to consistently be a boundary guy.

The Bills are in the same position that they were in last year at WR when they weren’t good enough. Samuel replaces Gabe/Harty and Hollins replaces Sherfield. They needed a number 2 last year and still do. There’s NOTHING more important than giving Josh weapons. With where WR contracts have gone it is even more of a priority. They likely take one with their first pick. At worst, they take one with their 2nd.

Weird used Barkley as an example. He stinks. He’s better than Peterman and seems to be a good teammate. He’s a smart guy. I understand maybe not wanting to bring someone like Cam in (even though that feels nuts). You might say that he isn’t a guy that you want breathing down the neck for a starter. You’d think a guy like Danny Etling is a better “shot” at this point than Peterman.

Both are terrible. Barkley is less terrible. He’s closer to Peterman than to the last guy on a roster but he is still in between the 2.

Lol, there are a lot of guys between “last QB on an NFL roster and Peterman.” Barkley is actually one of them. There are others as well, many of whom are closer to the last guy than Barkley.

I’ve probably done 1,000 of them at this point. I almost always take WR first. I kind of loved this most recent one though (getting the 2025 1st from Ten was a game changer):

MHJ - Arizona Odunze - Bills McConkey - Ravens Thomas Jr - Jags Worthy - Cowboys

I don’t blame them but I don’t like it either. It’s a different form of nepotism. It’s like, “he’s an easy personality to have in the room and not a real threat to the job.” More power to him, but I think it’s BS that a more qualified individual doesn’t get the opportunity because he’s a known “nice guy.”

He’s the worst player to ever play in the NFL. That’s not hyperbole. When you factor in the importance of the position, he’s the worst player ever. I never liked Peterman because I felt like he was stealing money from more deserving people. Here we are, however many years later, and he is still taking a job from someone more capable of doing the job. I’m glad he isn’t taking a roster spot on this team.

With Dodson now gone, who’s going to hit Josh, out of bounds, in August, at St. John Fisher??

Jacob Cowing- WR Arizona Dadrion Taylor-Demerson- S Texas Tech Tanor Bortolini- C Wisconson Xavier Thomas- EDGE Clemson Isaac Guerendo- RB Louisville Javon Solomon- EDGE Troy Gabe Hall- DT Baylor Sione Vaki- S Utah Ricky Pearsall- WR Florida

I could see this making sense for both sides. The Bills were ALWAYS going to chase one high end FA. I thought it would be a S (Xavier McKinney was my target). Justin Simmons is the other guy. Armstead seems to be at the top of that list now. They were going to pay for one high end defensive player.

Fair question, but I don’t see him falling. The 1st 3 are gone by 3. That leaves teams like Denver still w/o a qb. There are apparently teams that have him above some of the consensus top 3.

4 is the obvious answer for QB. It is definitely at least 4. Supposedly McCarthy has a LOT of fans. 11 is probably his floor (which is wild to me). The WR question is trickier. It could be multiple guys on there. I think Thomas is gone and Coleman has too many questions. I went Ladd McConkey. The Texas guys also warrant consideration (and have some questions).

They had 1 players in PFFs top 101 of 2023. They have nowhere near enough top end talent. They are a balanced deep roster but lack “elite” talent.

They played a bad game. If you can’t see that a team that won 11 games, with a 38 year-old QB, that they pulled off the couch, is a contender with good QB play, we see football differently. 😂😂

He wasn’t going to have a chance to compete anywhere. He isn’t good. He’s a backup. McCorkle is a good backup. He went to his home team for a year to learn and potentially rebuild his value. There were worse options for him.