Kirby Jackson

It needs to be. This offseason may be where the dial starts to turn but we haven’t seen it yet. They’re limited in FA dollars so neither side was going to be a massive priority in March. I tend to agree that it is turning some. The guys on the rookie deals is fair but the rank that I provided is 2024. That includes those large contract defensive players leaving (Floyd, Hyde, Poyer, Tre) and being replaced cheaper. It has been a reset across the roster. I think Kincaid was a starting point. Obviously “X” receiver needs to be addressed by pick 60. The Bills cannot continue to invest top 100 picks and their bigger FA deals on the defensive side of the ball hoping that Josh will elevate whatever is left on offense.

That’s crazy. They’re 20th in offensive spend and 13th in defense. When you’re paying a star QB, you’d expect that gap to be wider. I could see the 10th highest paid offense and 20th highest paid defense. When you factor in the draft capital used on defense vs. offense as well it’s insanity. The focus NEEDS to be surrounding Josh with talent. He’s the reason that this team may win.

Throughout this thread, I’ve been of the belief that the Bills do not invest nearly enough in the offense. This is in terms of FA dollars and draft capital. This tweet was out there and it speaks volumes. Keep in mind that the Bills have already paid their QB: https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1771193535280169236?s=46&t=aIi6rXjE4r9_s--847m7fQ

I’ve given things over the years but am cautious when someone asks me not to say anything.

Lol, I hear things from time to time. There isn’t anything else that I’m hearing. I was sworn to secrecy here.

I had heard about this almost 48 hours ago but kept 🤐

I’m starting to think a trade up is in the cards. I think it could be as high as Chicago at 9 if Odunze is on the board. Maybe it is something like: 9 for 28, 128, 144, 160 and a 2025 1st. I’m sure that the Bills would LOVE to not have to give up their 2nd this year. Chicago is in need of picks and depth players. The value of this would be something like 1350 points going out for Chicago and maybe like 1370 points going out for the Bills (I’m using 600 points for the Bills 2025 1st). The Bills would then pick (if they didn’t move around anymore): 9 - Rome Odunze 60 - Kris Jenkins 133 - Caleb Bullock 163 - Xavier Thomas 189 - Audric Estime 200 - BPA 204 - BPA 248 - BPA

Another box checked for team, “wr at all costs.”

I hear you. I’m simply suggesting that we are reading into situations without all of the context. The Sabres have largely been poorly run. The Bills haven’t been particularly well run on the business side either. Wins cure all in terms of perception. We need to dissociate the W/L record and how good they are at running the business. Those two things don’t intersect. If you’re dependent on good teams to sell, you don’t belong in that business. It’s easy to sell when winning. The talent rises when the situation is tougher. Those are situations that he’s proven effective in. As an aside, the Lakers were the most auto-pilot franchise in the league. They weren’t innovative, creative or progressive. It didn’t matter because they were the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. From the outside people probably thought, “look how great they are?” The reality is, if the Suns staff and Lakers staff traded places, the Suns people would have run circles around them. Guelli is a guy that has succeeded in less than ideal situations. That’s what you should be looking for. You don’t need to hire the Lakers staff.

One of the problems that people have when they look at sports business executives, is that they try to associate their success with on field / court success. I’m not saying that you are doing that here but others are in the thread. I know a good bit about the Charlotte NBA situation. The Hornets left on TERRIBLE terms with lawsuits between the owners. They were an AMAZING franchise until the late ‘90’s. The Bobcats situation was pretty much a disaster. Jordan coming in was not really the savior that people thought. He was not a very good owner on the court or on the business side. That’s hard for me to say because he’s my favorite athlete ever. The franchise turned up under Guelli’s leadership and by engaging NBA best practices. As stated earlier, the NBA has always been the best at the business of sports. When he was with the Bills they were like middle of the league in sponsor revenue I think. That’s impossible with an old stadium and garbage teams. That’s a credit to the creativity and staff that he had built. This is a very good hire for the Bills & Sabres. His experience dwarfs that of the last few people “running the show.”

I’m with you. His parents raised him right. He is a smart, genuine, thoughtful young man. He’s obviously a good football player because he made it to the NfL. He isn’t a great football player by NFL standards but he’s been a great representation for the team, city and family. The Bills have generally had good guys but Hamlin is high on that list.

FWIW, he’s a different personality. There were others in that regime that had similar “transgressions.” This dude is a standup guy.

He oversaw sponsorships when Russ was in charge. He was probably the 2nd most powerful guy in the room. He left and took the CRO job in Charlotte with the Bobcats. The NBA has ALWAYS had the best sports business minds. There’s a reason that so much innovation starts there. That’s where I last knew him. From what I remember the Bills sponsorship numbers were like middle of the league. That is crazy impressive, considering the old stadium and crappy teams. He’s quiet, assertive and smart. I never worked directly with him but knew his reputation. His resume is strong.

I think that I preferred Shaq. This feels like an either/or situation. Shaq is a solid run defender, contains well, bats down passes and gets occasional pressure. He has limited upside but as a 6th DE I think I prefer his solid floor. On a bad day he’s okay. On a great day, he’s pretty good. That’s what I prefer for a rotational back of the roster guy. I don’t need those guys to win games at their best. I just want them to not lose games at their worst.

Before someone asks, yes I know Pete Guelli. Yes, he is close with Russ Brandon. Yes, he’s a very smart and experienced sports business executive with local ties. He has years of sponsorship experience. It’s a shrewd hire prior to moving into the new stadium. There are lots of examples. His role has ZERO to do with football or hockey. He is in charge of the business of sports. He sells tickets, advertising, etc…

Lots and lots of words here and it’s further illustrating the point. What has worked are the good players that you’ve given Josh (Diggs, Kincaid and Cook). He’s also turned average(ish) talent into productive players (Gabe, Shakir, Beasley, Brown, etc). The Bills have invested HEAVILY in better talent defensively and it has failed. Regardless of the failure of guys like Basham and Elam, they remain a top 5(ish) unit. You can plug anyone in there and be okay. It is time to focus on Josh and only Josh. Give him MORE elite talent because that is what works. Stop trying to elevate Trent Sherfield or Jake Kumerow!! Give Josh AD Mitchell or Brian Thomas and watch the offense reach new levels. That has to be the plan moving forward. Enough insanity

You’ve been pretty vocal on here that you want to use 10-11 picks. Can you please elaborate on what you expect the 53 man roster to look like? There aren’t 10-11 spots now and they are still adding bodies. Help us understand why that’s a good allocation of resources.

No problem. I did a WAY too early 53 about 2 weeks ago on here. Some of it is subject to change. In a nutshell, I expect a starting S and at least 2 more DL prior to the draft. I was advocating a trade up to 9 for the WR. This may or may not happen but it plays in this list. You can replace McKinney with Blackmon because I’m guessing that happens. You can also replace Davenport with Epenesa, Foreman with Ty Johnson, Cowing with Hollins and Thomas with Samuel. You still may add someone like Cowing and bump Shavers/Shorter to PS. Basically there are a few spots needed for guys to play and some reserve spots left. Here’s where I was: Way too early 53: QB (2): Allen Trubisky RB (3): Cook Foreman Gore FB (1): Gilliam TE (3): Kincaid Knox Morris WR (6): Diggs Odunze Shakir Thomas Cowing (returner) Shorter/Shavers OL (10): Dawkins Edwards McGovern Torrence Brown Nijman Anderson Van Demark Jones Doyle DL (11): Von Rousseau Oliver Daquan Jenkins Davenport Thomas Anderson Briggs Shaq Jonathan LB (5): Milano Bernard Dorian Williams Spector Matakevich DB (9): Douglas Benford Elam Taron Rapp McKinney Vaki Cam Lewis Hamlin ST (3): Haack Bass Ferguson

I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.

Adams is 🗑️. He cannot play CF and that’s what the Bills need. Simmons is my first choice but Blackmon would be a nice consolation prize.

I don’t think that there is an argument to drafting 10-11 guys (despite the need to make the roster younger). I could see 7 or 8 making sense. Look at the depth chart and tell me where you have room for 11? I get the theory that it’s “more bites at the apple” but there aren’t enough spots. Your focus needs to be on your number 2 WR, followed by the DL. You need to get, 3 bodies there. You’re likely going to sign your other starting S, but you should draft a guy as well. You could also use a late round RB that can run between the tackles. That leaves 5-6 roster spots that you need from the draft. If you want to draft a couple more guys to compete with others on the back of the roster, so be it. That’ll be where BPA comes in. Otherwise, you use those last 3(ish) picks to move around the board and target guys before you have a tier break. At this point, I’d be happy with something like: - AD Mitchell - Kris Jenkins - Gabe Hall - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson - Xavier Thomas - Audric Estime - BPA - BPA

No one is moving the goal posts. The point has been that the Bills have invested HEAVILY in defense and have had a top 5ish defense annually. It hasn’t mattered when they got to Mahomes and Reid in the playoffs. That hasn’t been enough. I provided FACTS to support that when it comes to the draft. Here is another: of those DL drafted, every single one of them was picked earlier than every single WR with the exception of Daryl Johnson. It hasn’t worked!!! The offensive philosophy has been to put whomever on the outside (with the exception of Diggs) and Allen’s greatness will elevate them. That has worked some as well. Imagine if they had guys, other than Diggs, that could win on their own? Imagine if they had guys, other than Josh, that could make plays with the ball in their hands? Instead of continuing to invest the prime resources on the defensive side of the ball, they need to prioritize WR. They have largely abandoned it and wasted years of Allen’s prime doing that. Your defense may go from top 5 to top 10 in doing so but who cares. You are going to win BECAUSE OF JOSH ALLEN. That is what this team has. Josh Allen was the only Buffalo Bills player ranked in PFFs top 101 players of 2023. The Bills need to stop putting the pieces elsewhere and then hope that he elevates whatever is left on offense. That mindset started to change last year with the Kincaid pick. That will continue this year as they look for their future number 1 WR. Play to your strengths. You don't need to invest top resources on rotational defensive linemen. They’ve invested heavily at LB and in the secondary. When you combine FA dollars with “where guys were drafted” the investment in the defense DWARFS that of the offense. That has been CRIMINAL with Josh Allen in his prime. They have been reactive instead of the aggressive despite having a HOF QB. It’s going to change moving forward. The definition of insanity would be to continue passing out big deals to rotational defensive linemen (ie Settle, Floyd, Phillips, Ford) or high end draft picks on guys that aren’t difference makers (ie Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Shaq). Investing in Von and Oliver is one thing. They are elite talents and playmakers. It’s time to give the best player that has ever put on a Bills uniform (with the possible exception of Bruce Smith) what he needs to drag this team to a title.

That’s just not true. Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. It hasn’t worked.

Taron is a great player. He’s one of the best handful of players on this team. This move was pretty obvious but it was the right decision. He’s a core player and now the senior member of that secondary. I like it.