Kirby Jackson

Very fair and thoughtful analysis 🍻. Agree wholeheartedly

You think that the guy that founded reception perception, and charts every route run by WRs is “just a fantasy football guy?” That feels like you’re grasping at straws to fit the confirmation bias. I’ve said that the Bills are inarguably a bottom 3 WR room and may be last. Feel free to list the ones that you think are worse but be prepared to defend it.

Matt Harmon is THE guy when it comes to WR analysis. I posted his video on Coleman earlier. There were LOTS of people that thought he was polarizing. That’s not an opinion. People talking about his 40 time are not people that thought it was controversial. People talking about his lack of separation are the ones that had an issue. I don’t care if he’s a 4.5 guy or a 4.6 guy. I care that this is what his route tree looks like:

I’m guessing sarcasm? I don’t even understand the last part about “Cooper Cupp.” Cooper Kupp is an elite WR. Coleman has some similarities to Kupp coming out in terms of their separation issues. Kupp is a big slot though. The guys that have succeeded without separation have been big slots. If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe WR guru Matt Harmon. Listen here as he explains: In terms of the volume, Kincaid will have a hard time handling it with 11 man boxes. The Bills needed some guys to run routes 20 yards down the field to open up the underneath. Underneath is where the guys currently on the roster succeed. That will be really crowded. Also, when it comes to “volume” a raw rookie who lacks separation isn’t a guy that eats targets. If they would have taken someone like McConkey (not my favorite of the options but better than Coleman) his skill set would have allowed for volume early. The Bills have roughly 600 targets to go around this year. How do you see them divided? Keep in mind that Diggs, Davis, Sherfield and Harty combined for like 300 last year. Before you tell me that Curtis Samuel (who I am a big fan of) is going to be the main guy, here’s what his GM had to say on him: Here is how his OC used him when they were last together: Again, I like the player but if you think that he is the number 1 WR that’s going to see the 160 targets that Diggs saw, we aren’t close to agreeing. Feel free to be comfortable with the WR room. I’m not and gave some of the reasons above. I would have pushed my chips in for an alpha. If you disagree, what is it that you like about them?

I actually like Scotty Miller some. He would be fine to compete for the 6th roster spot. He offers some traits that I like. The problem is, he will be a 4 here. All of the guys are pushed 2 spots up the depth chart because we are missing the top of it. The point wasn’t necessarily about a particular guy. It was about “if you are planning on _____ to help you, your room stinks.” They’re going to have to make a trade June 1 because they can’t go into the season with this group. It’s just not good enough or dynamic enough. They’re way too easy to defend.

I think all 3 of those guys can play. I just think that all 3 of them are being forced into roles that they aren’t capable of (or yet in Kincaid’s case). Kincaid has a chance to be one of the best TEs in football. I don’t think that he should be the top receiving option on a Super Bowl contender at this point in his career. Samuel is a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. He has Deebo qualities. He’s meant to be a change of pace guy not a boundary receiver with volume. Shakir was very good late last year out. He’s versatile and can also run after the catch. I’m just not sure that effectiveness will translate with 100+ targets and defenses focusing on him. They are all good and would be even better with the right people above them on the depth chart (or at least alongside of them).

I don’t know. I would guarantee 3+ years of Chark at this point in his career.

That’s like not prioritizing “pass rushers that can rush the passes” or “offensive linemen who can block.” Imagine living in a world where you don’t think it’s an important skill for a WR to get open. 😂😂

Lol, this is the saddest thread on here in a while. There are people on here that think this WR room is good. We are now suggesting ways to make it even better!! People are talking about adding (in no particular order): Chase Claypool, Kenny Golladay, washed Michael Thomas, washed OBJ, and washed Allen Robinson. What are we doing here? The Bills needed to upgrade the WR room. They needed 2 boundary receivers at the top of the depth chart. They added one guy that was the most polarizing WR prospect, in arguably the greatest WR draft ever. That’s a massive failure. You aren’t going to dig yourself out by adding Kenny Golladay. As it stands the Bills have the worst WR group in the NFL. The TEs are good and the backs can catch but the WRs are last IMO.

Absolutely didn’t do enough. I think that the Bills inarguably have one of the 3 worst WR rooms in the NFL. It may be last. I’m not talking all pass catchers. When looking at just WR the Bills are somewhere between 29-32. Josh will need to be Superman again.

No, we don’t agree that “professionals create the base for amateurs to pretend that they are equal to them.” We agree that, “professionals divide and conquer the intial list so that each team isn’t trying to figure out who to scout. In the process that universe of players then get scouted in much greater detail by professionals, amateurs and analysts alike.”

Best pick so far.

No, I guess that I didn’t think that needed to be said. Draft evaluators use a top 500 or whatever to go through. That’s established through collective scouting.

Are you suggesting that NFL teams evaluate 16,000 players 😂?? I don’t know if this is still the process but the BLESTO scouts meet in like a month. The teams all share and narrow down the guys to watch in the fall. They narrow the list.

One poster (currently) that I’m suggesting is doing the same level of research (minus the 1st hand information part). I’m not speaking from what I think but rather what I know. Is there a difference in information between an NfL team and amateur scouts? Of course. Is the gap as wide as people think? Nowhere near

I’m not saying that most do that level of work. Charting 3 games (or whatever he does) for 140 players is much closer to the scouts than it is to the guys watching YouTube highlights. Guys like Matt Miller do that level of work. NFL teams aren’t doing significantly more. They are evaluating more people but not significantly more depth. That’s reality whether you want to believe it or not.

Not trying to be “that guy” but that’s exactly what I am “suggesting.” Scouts follow a very similar process (one of my best friends is a Bears scout). They just have the interview portion. 90% of it is the same.

Not sleeping on him. I like him a lot. I hope that it translates with more volume and attention.

Watch Matt Harmon’s video on Coleman. Guys with his separation that have succeeded have been big slots (Kupp, St. Brown, Boyd). Now maybe he beats math but if we believe that he is 100% boundary he would be an absolute outlier. The need is still desperate imo. Tez and Franklin are options. I like Baker and Washington a lot. Cowing (another slot) is a guy that I’m high on. There are good receivers left.

I love the list. I’d like to add Xavier Thomas as a lottery ticket pass rusher.

I don’t know if it is writing them off as much as not thinking that they are adequate at the top of the depth chart. If Shakir was the slot guy and Samuel as the McKenzie role, with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams (for example) I would love the WR room. When I look at the top of depth charts though, the Bills WR room is near the bottom of the league. Obviously the Bears are an extreme example but they have DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze as their top 3. The Bills have Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel as theirs. Shakir and Samuel are fine football players but they aren’t Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle etc…

Puka Nacua is an even better comparison. He was picked at 177 overall twelve months ago. He had 105 catches for 1486 yards as a rookie. Obviously that’s an outlier but the Bills still have a desperate need for boundary receiver(s). It isn’t crazy to think that there is a guy, not yet drafted, that could have 50 catches and 750 yards this year.

Define “be wrong more than right.” I’m not understanding. Is it, “he will not predict the correct first 32” or “more of the players that he will like will fail than succeed?” He has the data on the latter. Of the scouting equation, I would say 60% tape, 30% athletic profile, 10% interview. The medical is its own bucket. Scouts aren’t the ones evaluating that, doctor’s are. From a scouting standpoint he is doing 90% of what the teams are doing. Gunner is not putting guys on the white board but otherwise it’s a similar process. I think that you’re underselling how similar it is to the team’s process.

I would take that for sure. Gabe was good at what he was good at but struggled with everything else. That’s why he was so inconsistent. He was good at getting down the field, especially on broken plays. I’m hoping Coleman will give you some of that while also running a little more of the route tree.

That’s probably true and an interesting thought. The drops were tough last year.