Kirby Jackson

Again, this trade was formulated based on the hundreds of draft trades made (actual NFL draft trades) since the new CBA went into play. There are trades (like the Dolphins for Dion Jordan) that drag it down while trades like the Jets up the value. This is the guide that teams are using though. The Jets paid roughly a 34.6% premium. That’s the market now.

He is probably my least favorite Bills player that I can remember. He was scared to play football. I’m not sure that he would have ever been more than okay but that would have been better than a lot of guys that we had.

That’s not how it works though. Teams use this as a guide and also use the market. The Giants will want roughly what the Jets got. The Bills can get it done fairly easily. They Giants will bite or they won’t but there aren’t many other teams that can put together that package.

If my math is right if the Bills give 12, 22, 53, 65 and a 3rd next year they are paying roughly 141.75 points. That’s a 156% premium. The Jets paid roughly 136.54 points. That’s a 152% premium. Again, this assumes that my math is right. That chart was created based on actual trades that have taken place from the time of the new CBA to the last draft. You usually pay a premium going up. I laid out an offer above that should get it done IMO.

Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now:

They are bringing him in to race Orlando Brown

That’s what my issue was with dumping Sammy. They underrated the value of him on the field. That’s the past though. When I think of that play specifically I think “who on the Bills could do that?” You need that answer to be about 3-4 different guys. In the Bills case it is Shady. That is why the WR group is not good. Outside of Benjamin’s contested catches they don’t do anything to help the team. They don’t have good route runners, they are terribly slow, don’t catch very well and teams can load the box. It is a massive area of need. The odd thing is that Carolina has always undervalued the position. They favored guys like Funchess and Benjamin over more explosive guys. That is not the philosophy that I believe in. I think that you need to make explosive plays. Benjamin is a fine NFL player but he needs a playmaker on the other side of at least his quality.

I’m not giving up on Zay. I liked the pick a lot. At this point though I would give Zay up for Ju-Ju without blinking. He would have certainly been a better choice. The Bills don’t have anybody (but Shady) capable of making this play (Pittsbugh has about 5 guys that can):

I can’t speak for Dansby but I moved much better a decade ago.

That’s not what it is going to cost. The Giants are picking 2 then. The Bills can get there for 12, 22, and 2 of 53, 56 & 65 plus a 2nd, 3rd or 4th next year. It will be those 5 picks or it isn’t happening. The math has already been done on here. The Bills would be paying a premium at those numbers (not as high of a premium as the Jets). No one else can come close to that package.

This would have excited me when Dansby and I were 28. I don’t like it as much now that we are both 36.

I don’t hate him. It is probably a lot of “I told you so” in this thread. He was the 4th receiver for the Eagles and people actually believed that going from Watkins to Matthews was an upgrade!! He’s an okay slot guy but in no way should he have been thought of as an acceptable option as the top receiver. The Bills admitted that mistake about 8 weeks after us. They didn’t even wait the year out. Matthews seems like a nice guy and a smart guy. Shady likes him too. The idea that he was ever going to be more than a JAG though was woefully misguided. The Bills, to their credit though, tried to move on quickly by adding Benjamin. He’s limited too but is a better version of Matthews. The Bills still have a massive need at WR and some of that came from believing that Matthews was a viable option. The rest of it came from trading up for Zay (which I liked at the time). In hindsight, they should have tried to get Benjamin earlier and drafted Ju-Ju instead of Zay. That’s water under the bridge at this point though.

We just disagree on the losing proposition part. I think that you are 50/50 ish. I agree that not all of these guys will be great but some will. The percentages say that you are much more likely to find your QB there than anywhere else. The Bills have the assets to do it now and have planned on it. Every action that they have taken has suggested a move up for an elite QB prospect. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work and you swing again in a couple of years. You are WAY more likely to find a QB doing that than by throwing darts at the best available at the time of your picks. FWIW, I don’t hate the idea of Lamar Jackson at 12. I just think it is a smarter strategy to pay the price using this year’s assets to get up and get the guy that you want. I’ve always been under the assumption that it is Josh Rosen.

Yep, that’s why he never through to JMatt. He never checked the “open” receiver box. Ha ha, where are all of those hot takes now...

If you think that Smith, Palmer, Vick or Newton is a clear bust we just aren’t going to agree.

What about a guy that won the MVP, was 15-1 and played in the Super Bowl? Clear bust?

I feel bad saying it because he seems like a nice guy. Sometimes though I like to say “ha ha I told you so.” It’s a fine line between celebrating being right and disparaging a seemingly good dude. It’s the EJ Manuel effect

You put a league MVP as a clear bust?!?

He stinks and the market is proving that true. The Eagles had him as 4 on their depth chart and threw him in on the trade. He can’t separate at all. Remember when people here thought he was an “upgrade to Sammy?” One guy got 3 years $48M with $30M guaranteed and the other guy is sitting out there probably staring at a vet minimum deal. I guess NFL GMs are smarter than TBD.

I don’t have the data in front of me but it exists. I am (very) confident that the success ratio of a top 3 QB is greater than drafting 3 guys. Top 3 guys are roughly 50%. You’d have to take the likelihood at every other place and add them together (or a pick in the 20’s may be 20%, a pick in the 50’s 5% and a pick at 120 3%).

I would venture to say that Tyrod made more plays where a guy got beat than sacks he took for holding the ball too long. That was his game and always will be though. It’s the same thing that Ben and Russell Wilson try to do. They try to keep plays alive as long as they can. There are a ton of plays that Tyrod made when someone else would have thrown it away or taken a sack. It is hard to quantify without re-watching every play but that’s the intuitive sense I get. I am confident that there are more of those situations than sacks that he took that others wouldn’t have (and I’ll bet it is close to 2:1). The other thing is that he often required a spy allowing more space to work for the RBs and one less guy on the receivers. These are subtle advantages that never get mentioned but will change (unless Lamar is the guy).

Yes and no, I know what you are getting at but their top talent (Donald and Gurley) preceded Goff. It is a little “chicken and egg” and there is no right way to do it. The ideal situation is to consistently draft well. You only get so many chances to strike on a QB. This should be the year for the Bills.

I’m not a Rudolph guy, but he is the same way. He can pick up 1st downs with his legs if the play breaks down. He ran pretty impressively in the bowl game IMO.

It won’t be cheap but fortunately the Giants can’t get an offer better than that. It is a matter of whether or not the Giants are comfortable moving down. They hold some cards because they have a desirable pick. We hold some cards in that we have the best possible offer.

Lee signed already