Kirby Jackson

It’s basically a combination of elite guys and then stars to counter them. You have to have a good LT to protect against the star pass rushers. You need a star corner to neutralize elite receivers, etc...

Shady

The history of trusting the process: TTP

Would the Broncos rather have Chubb (Barkley likely to the Giants) or 12, 35 and 65? I’d be SHOCKED if they declined that package. This would be a home run of a draft for the Browns. They will have gotten the same 2 guys that they were taking at 1 & 4 and turned pick 35 into 22 and 53. They can even turn around and deal those picks potentially to get back to 10 or something and take Denzel Ward. This is the type of exercise that teams are doing in their war rooms now. These teams are at a point where they are anticipating the various scenarios but they are starting to clear up.

Because they don’t have another offer close to that and are still getting the guy that they were taking? It is about the players at this point and not the numbers. If the Bills took Darnold, the Giants take Barkley, the Jets Baker, the Browns take Allen, the Browns can use some of those assets to come back up to 5 even. 12, 35 and 65 would do it for sure. So the Browns would get Allen and Chubb and turn 35 into 22 and 53. Again, this assumes Allen is their guy. Why wouldn’t they do that? They could always ways turn around and use some of the assets to go to 2 if they are worried about the Jets. The Browns and Bills are the power brokers in this draft. The Browns can stay put and walk out with Allen and Chubb and still have 33, 35, 64 (or whatever). They could also get creative and get Allen, Chubb, 22 and 53. It depends how confident they are in the draft playing out in a certain manner. There are a few givens though. The Browns and Jets are taking QBs in the top 4. If the Bills move up, they are as well. The Giants probably (not a given) take Barkley (especially if Darnold is gone). If they take Chubb (the only other realistic option IMO) the Browns will get Barkley. The top 4 (with no trades) is 2 QBs, Barkley and Chubb. If the Browns move down (or anyone does) the top 4 will be 3 QBs and Chubb OR Barkley. The Broncos at 5 and Colts at 6 are both open for business. By relinquishing a couple of assets you can get up there to grab the other one. That’s the exact reason that the Bills have leverage. They can go to 5 or 6 and get Rosen at a fraction of the price (and still a price no one else will pay). The Bills can give up 12, 53 for Rosen or 12, 22, 53, 65 and a 2019 2nd for Darnold. The Browns aren’t holding them at gunpoint (and no one else is even close). So back to your original question, the Browns take it because they get more prime picks and the same guy. Either that or they just take the guy at 1. I think that we’d both agree Allen, Chubb, 22 and 53 is better than Allen, Chubb & 35. It’s just a matter of taking a little risk (basically that the Giants and Jets don’t take Allen).

I’ve seen 12, 53 and a 5th to go to 6. I’m sure that 12 and 35 will get it done. 6 is one of the Bills targets so they have been there in a lot of mocks without using 22 or their 2019 1st. The Colts roster stinks so any top 100 picks are a bonus for them. The Bills love Darnold. That’s is their guy. The Giants, supposedly, aren’t taking a QB unless it is Darnold. They are really high on Barkley. The Jets are a bit of a wild card. They could go Allen, Rosen or Mayfield but Baker is probably the favorite. The Browns certainly have he option to stay put and take Allen or Darnold or whomever. If it is Darnold that they want they need to stay at 1 I think. If it is someone else they should take some assets. The Giants would LOVE to go to 4 and still get Barkley.

If no QB at all: 12 - Roquan Smith (lb) 22 - trade down for a 3rd and 2019 1st 53 - Sony Michel (rb) 56 - Frank Ragnow (c/og) 65 - Christian Kirk (wr) new 3rd - D’Shawn Hand (dl) 96 - Darius Leonard (lb) 121 - Geron Christian (ot) 166 - Avonte Maddox (cb) 187 - Braxton Berrios (wr)

Yeah, I don’t see the Browns using all of these picks. They are going to go up (often) and try to push picks towards future years. They are in great shape.

If they want Darnold all bets are off. You have to stay put and take him. 12, 22, 53, 65 and a 2019 2nd isn’t a lowball offer. That’s 2 1sts, 2 2nds and the first pick of the 3rd. Again, this assumes that the Browns are still getting Allen in the top 4. If he isn’t their guy this trade isn’t happening. Darnold isn’t making it to 4. You aren’t likely giving up Chubb or Barkley because you are going back to 6. If Denver AND the Giants take Barkley and Chubb you miss out. You have a pick though that will be in great demand with the last of the QBs. You can call Miami or Arizona and say, “are you interested in 6?” If neither are, you add Nelson, Ward, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, Roquan, etc.. at 12 and still have 22, 33, 35, 64, 65, etc...

Yes and they are either going to take Allen at 1, 2 or 4. Why wouldn’t they take the extra assets? He’s the same guy that they are getting no matter where they pick him. You are doing Yeoman’s work.

Every situation is different, the Dolphins went from 12 to 3 for pick 42 in 2013. It depends on the demand. There will be demand at the top of this draft but nothing like the move for RG3. There are, by most accounts, 4 QBs that will go in the top 10. Presumably teams have them graded pretty closely. Teams aren’t going to overpay when they can pay less for the next guy. The Bills, by all accounts, like Darnold, the Browns Allen. The Bills have to likely get in the top 2 to get Darnold. They can almost certainly get one of the other 3 at 6. How much more are they willing to pay for Darnold vs. Rosen? If Rosen will cost you 12 and 53 (maybe a little more to prevent Miami from getting up) what are you willing to pay for Darnold? IMO, they will be willing to do something like 12, 22, 53, 65, a 2019 2nd and a 2019 4th. I think that is the most that the Bills will pay. 2 firsts, 2nds, the first pick in the 3rd and one of their 2 4ths in 2019.

Think that I have dropped this in here before but it is one of my favorite sandwiches ever. It’s a decent amount of prep but not bad on the cleanup. It is FANTASTIC. This guy is a James Beard winning chef: https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/recipe-roast-pork-dip/

It’s like on Pawn Stars. Guys come in all of the time and say, “I saw these online for $325k.” They are always corrected, “that is what they are asking for it, not necessarily what they are selling for.” I suspect that the Browns stay at 1 and take Allen.

I will sign up for that!! Congrats!!

That’s the only way that they miss out. If that happens the Browns are sitting at 6 with Rosen out there. They can either get a bunch from the Dolphins or Cardinals or they could take Ward or Nelson.

I think that this is probably true and even still they have a price.

You said that the Bills would get shut out of the QB. The package I just gave you is why they won’t. If the Browns take 12, 22 and 53 for 4 they are missing out on Chubb. So, the first scenario (that you are against) has the Browns getting Allen, Chubb, 22 and 65 for 35. In this scenario the Browns get Allen, 12, 22, 53 and keep 35. Would you rather Chubb, 22 & 65 or 12, 22, 35 and 53? You are a Browns fan. Which scenario do you prefer? I know if I were a Browns fan I’d rather Chubb.

You are getting the 1st!! It is just this year, pick 22. You get fired when you don’t maximize your return. As a Browns fan would you rather have Allen, Chubb and pick 35 or Allen, Chubb, pick 22 & pick 65?

That won’t happen because the Bills will go to 6 (as illustrated above). If the Giants go QB at 2 the Bills will trade up to 4. The Bills package blows everyone else’s away. I know that you don’t want to hear that the Browns won’t be getting 3 firsts but they won’t. Tell me a package that the Browns are getting better than 12, 22 and 53 for the 4th pick?

If not he can take Allen at 1 and Chubb at 4. Barkley will go 2 and Darnold 3. The Bills will trade up to 6 with the Colts and get Rosen or Baker. This is the lowest that the Bills will pick IMO. That is the nice thing about having all of that draft capital. They can put together a package that no one can compete with.

Not me, the 2019 pick is the last asset added. You are talking about top 10 pick in an elite front 7 draft. I’m not giving that pick up unless it is a last resort. You can easily get a deal done without it.

The points are close according to the charts. They may not get Chubb (or Barkley at 6). That would mean that the Giants took one and the Broncos took the other. I think that the Broncos are taking a QB or Nelson. That’s the gamble that the Browns would be taking. They’d be giving up a high 2nd (35) for the 1st pick of the 3rd (65) AND a 1st (22). The only risk that they are taking on is that the Broncos AND Giants take Barkley and Chubb. If that happens the Browns can get on the phone with the Cardinals, Dolphins and anyone else looking for a QB and auction of the 6th pick. The players are all that matter at this point. If you can get the guys that you want and assets you do it. The assumptions that I am making in this thread are based on the rumors out there. The Giants want Barkley, the Bills Darnold, the Browns Allen & Chubb, the Jets Mayfield and the Colts want to trade down. If all of those are true, basically the Browns and Giants can force the Bills to relinquish assets and still walk away with the guys that they are taking otherwise. If they overplay their hands though they get those guys without the extra assets.

Then they can stay at 1 and take the same guy. That’s the point. Whatever they are getting is free at this point. Allen at 1 is not better for them than Allen at 2. Chubb at 6 isn’t worse than Chubb at 4. Picks 22 + 65 are better than pick 35 though. If they decide to stay put and take those guys, so be it. They are the Browns for a reason.

Who is saying no to my proposed trade and why? Of course they want that pick but if they can add 22 & 65 while still getting the guys that they’d pick anyways they’d have to consider it. That was @KOKBILLS point earlier. It isn’t a hypothetical at this point. They are trying to figure out how the draft will unfold. There are names now associated with those spots. If the Browns are going to go Allen 1 & Chubb 4, why wouldn’t they rather go Allen 2, Chubb 6 and add 22 & 65 (while subtracting 35)?

Great thread!! We too are getting together (with our Bills group in New Orleans). The draft will be going on at the same time as Pelicans/Blazers game 6 so we will have 2 TVs working and crawfish boiling. Friday we will be going to the Zurich Classic during the day and a bar after for rounds 2 & 3. In in terms of food, I think that you want to go on the easy side with the draft being later. You aren’t going to want to be stuck with a messy kitchen at 10:30 at night. I’d probably go with a couple of dips and maybe pulled pork or something? It’s minimal work and will allow you to focus on the draft.