Kirby Jackson

The Bills definitely met with him (even if he isn’t their guy). They weren’t going to meet with every QB prospect besides a guy with his gifts. The Bills were very thorough when it came to QBs. Maybe the Bills told him they weren’t interested so he’s trying to create a market? Maybe the Bills have a promise in place with him if he gets to 12 and asked him not to say anything? Both seem like a stretch to me but it is unfathomable that they would talk to every QB but him (and we’ve already been told that they met).

That’s fair but at the same time a stretch. We haven’t seen, read or heard of a massive gap between the top guys. By all accounts it’s a little bit of a personal preference. The gap between 1 and 2 (maybe even to 4) isn’t going to be big anywhere. The Bills, for example, really like Darnold. I will be really surprised if they pay a giant price for him. They will pay more for him than anyone else but not the price that it will take to get to the top 2 IMO (unless it drops). I think that they will part with 12, 22 and 2 more top 96 picks for Darnold. I think that is their line. We will see though... Correct, but both prospects were considered ELITE (like RG 3 and Luck). That’s why I used that example though. Manning was considered an elite prospect while EJ a project that got pushed up because the class was terrible. If the gap was what it would have been from Manning to EJ then I would agree that a team would mortgage the farm. The gap from Darnold to Rosen, Mayfield and Allen is minimal if at all.

Find me a team that thinks there is a massive gap between QB 1 and QB 2? That is a total hypothetical and not realistic. That’s why I used the Peyton and EJ example. They were thought of TOTALLY differently leading into the draft. The gap doesn’t exist in this class. That doesn’t mean that they will all be good. It just means no one will pay 3 times for Darnold what it costs to get Rosen. Ha ha, I’ve seen so many Celtic fans that are like, “I’d take AD for Smart, Rozier and a pick. If they want Tatum or Brown though it is a no go for me.” It’s amazing how delusional people are when it comes to their team.

That’s why he won’t trade. That’s the point. No one is interested in giving up 3 ones, 3 twos and the top pick in the 3rd when they can score a very similar prospect for a one and 2 twos (which would still be a big premium).

There isn’t even a consensus top QB!! That’s the other point, different teams have different guys 1-4. If it was Peyton Manning at 1 and EJ Manuel as the next best prospect then maybe. These guys graded out incredibly close. That is why no one is paying a big premium. They will take Rosen at 5 or 6 for a fraction of the cost to get to 1 or 2. No need to apologize!! WGR has gotten people so carried away that the real cost has been missing. The Bills can easily get their QB and pick 3 more times in the top 100.

They paid like a 50% premium on one chart and 25% on the other. The trade that I suggested to 5 or 6 is a similar value to what the Jets paid. Bandit laid it out in another thread.

We are all in agreement that the Browns stay at 1. The fact that Browns fans think that a team will offer 3 ones, 3 twos and the top pick of the 3rd is the equivalent of Celtics fans that think they will get Kawhi or AD without giving up Brown or Tatum. It is absurd how unrealistic people are when it comes to their teams.

They can get Rosen at 5 or 6 for 12, 53 and 65. Why would they ever pay 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 2019 1st & 2nd? That’s why the draft value charts exist. They frame trades. You pay a premium moving up but not double.

So 3 ones, 3 twos and the top pick in the 3rd?!? That’s crazy. I think 12, 22, 2019 1st & 2nd or 12, 22, 53, 56, 65 gets it done. It’s a ridiculous price either way and one that won’t be paid.

I’m not saying that I disagree but if they pick a QB 4th he has to be the top guy in the class or they are going to hear it. They are backed into a corner because of previous decisions. They are just going to take their guy and hope to be right.

They can’t pass on the top guy. They basically have to take one first and have to be right. It is a tough scenario for them. If Darnold, Mayfield, Allen or Rosen goes before the Browns take a QB and they are a star Dorsey is immediately on the hot seat. They passed on Wentz, Watson, Mahomes, Trubisky, Etc.. They don’t have the luxury of waiting to 4 IMO.

I like the interior OL too. There are some positions though (like edge) that are just atrocious.

Yeah, imagine if the Browns traded out and missed ANOTHER QB?!? He basically has to use the pick.

I honestly believe that is just because we have all been so fine with an overpayment. Unless they go into the top 2 I think that you will see a pretty standard trade. They will pay a premium but nothing out of control. In another thread I suggested 12, 53, 65 & a 2019 4th for 6 & 100. Based on both of the charts the Bills would be paying a 3rd and a 2019 4th above the chart values. That’s expensive for sure but not crippling.

I’m definitely concerned about it too. You can probably flip flop Evans in there pretty easily. I like Vander Esch’s upside more but those issues are bad from the sound of it. Some teams have taken him off the board. The other buzz that seems to be out there is Ragnow in the 1st and Hurst on Day 3 (his condition must be scaring teams as well).

My niece was born Thursday. She is sound asleep on me now.

Sweaty

If he gets any picks right will you send him an old hairbrush or shoe from your wife? Asking for a friend...

My guess is the Colts. They’ve aggressively added day 2 picks and are looking for more. That would seem to line up with this.

There have been tons of scenarios thrown out there. We all seem to have a different opinion of what would please us the most. Some people want to go to 1 or 2, some want to stay put, some want to use next year’s picks, others this year’s, etc... How would you like to see the top 100 play out for the Bills? I am just using the top 100 because we know those prospects well enough: Here is mine: - Bills trade 12, 53, 65 & 2019 4th to the Colts for picks 6 and 100 (Bills pay an additional 3rd round premium plus a 2014 4th using the Rich Hill chart & Jimmy Johnson chart) - Rosen at 6 - Vander Esch at 22 - Chark at 56 - Tyrell Crosby at 96 - Darius Leonard at 100 This would give the Bills the QB, LB, speed WR and a starting caliber OT. I really wanted Sony Michel at 56 but felt that was too big of a stretch. If I did that I would probably have Pettis in there instead of Leonard. What is your dream scenario in the top 100?

Yep, it’s the last thing that I would give up. If they do the deal that Bandit suggested 12, 22, 65 and end up with Rosen we’d be good. You can get a top end DL next year (maybe Bosa). I love the idea of a QB and stud pass rusher on rookie deals. You can win early within the next couple of years.

Then maybe Derrius Guice is your preferred RB?

The Bills are going toga was to hit it as big as the Saints did last year to even sniff .500 IMO. The offense is bad. I don’t think that can be debated. It does (fortunately) have an opportunity to improve this week. The defense needs linebackers and the pass rush has to improve. It was dreadful last year. As of today the Bills look 4-12 to 5-11 to me. IF they get the QB right (especially without using the 2019 1st) I am fine with it. This year was about finding a QB and resetting the salary cap. They have already done half of that. If you can get Rosen for 12, 22 & 65 while adding a starting LB, WR and OL it will be fantastic.

There was some quote around the combine from a FO executive. He was asked, “why do football people like Allen more than fans?” His answer, “because we know more about football than they do.” He was then asked, “why are fans higher on Mason Rudolph than football people?” His answer, “because we know more about football than they do.” Take it FWIW and it is one man’s opinion. I couldn’t find the exact quote but you get the point. I’m not saying that it is right or wrong. Allen though isn’t some “media created darling.” He is a product of the scouting community loving his physical skills. The ego believes that their team can harness those gifts. It all remains to be seen but “football people” like Allen more than regular people.

So he’s going to be a top 5 all-time QB? Sign me up!!